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Report
U.S. Banks’ Exposures to Climate Transition Risks
We build on the estimated sectoral effects of climate transition policies from the general equilibrium models of Jorgenson et al. (2018), Goulder and Hafstead (2018), and NGFS (2022a) to investigate U.S. banks’ exposures to transition risks. Our results show that while banks’ exposures are meaningful, they are manageable. Exposures vary by model and policy scenario with the largest estimates coming from the NGFS (2022a) disorderly transition scenario, where the average bank exposure reaches 9 percent as of 2022. Banks’ exposures increase with the stringency of a carbon tax policy but ...
Report
Financing Constraints and Maintenance Investments: Evidence from Apartments
This paper studies whether renters bear the costs of building financing constraints in the form of reduced maintenance. Using a novel data set combining housing code violations from forty-five U.S. cities with apartment financing information, I show more financially constrained buildings incur more code violations. I then exploit a natural experiment, effectively reducing financial resources for some New York City rent-stabilized buildings. Following the shock, code violations increase for affected buildings relative to controls, and the effect is concentrated among more financially ...
Discussion Paper
Flood Risk and Firm Location Decisions in the Fed’s Second District
The intensity, duration, and frequency of flooding have increased over the past few decades. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 99 percent of U.S. counties have been impacted by a flooding event since 1999. As the frequency of flood events continues to increase, the number of people, buildings, and agriculture exposed to flood risk is only likely to grow. As a previous post points out, measuring the geographical accuracy of such risk is important and may impact bank lending. In this post, we focus on the distribution of flood risk within the Federal Reserve’s ...
Discussion Paper
How Exposed Are U.S. Banks’ Loan Portfolios to Climate Transition Risks?
Much of the work on climate risk has focused on the physical effects of climate change, with less attention devoted to “transition risks” related to negative economic effects of enacting climate-related policies and phasing out high-emitting technologies. Further, most of the work in this area has measured transition risks using backward-looking metrics, such as carbon emissions, which does not allow us to compare how different policy options will affect the economy. In a recent Staff Report, we capitalize on a new measure to study the extent to which banks’ loan portfolios are exposed ...
Report
Climate Regulatory Risks and Corporate Bonds
Investor and policymaker concerns about climate risks suggest these risks should affect the risk assessment and pricing of corporate securities, particularly for firms facing stricter regulatory enforcement. Using corporate bonds, the authors find support for this hypothesis. Employing a shock to expected climate regulations, they show climate regulatory risks causally affect bond credit ratings and spreads. A structural credit model indicates that the increased spreads for high carbon issuers, especially those located in stricter regulatory environments, are driven by changes in firms' asset ...
Discussion Paper
Is Your Apartment Breaking because Your Landlord Is Broke?
Thirty-one percent of housing units in the United States are rental units, and rental housing is unique because unlike in the case of homeownership, renters rely on the property owner for maintenance spending. From the property owner’s perspective, building maintenance is an important investment necessary to keep the asset in good condition. However, like all investments, it is only possible to maintain a building with sufficient financial resources. In a recent staff report, I examine the relationship between a building’s financing constraints and its maintenance. I find that financially ...