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Conference Paper
Getting the most out of mandatory subordinated debt requirement
Conference Paper
The asset flexibility option and the value of deposit insurance
Working Paper
Jump starting GARCH: pricing and hedging options with jumps in returns and volatilities
This paper considers the pricing of options when there are jumps in the pricing kernel and correlated jumps in asset returns and volatilities. Our model nests Duan?s GARCH option models, where conditional returns are constrained to being normal, as well as mixed jump processes as used in Merton. The diffusion limits of our model have been shown to include jump diffusion models, stochastic volatility models and models with both jumps and diffusive elements in both returns and volatilities. Empirical analysis on the S&P 500 index reveals that the incorporation of jumps in returns and ...
Working Paper
Estimating real and nominal term structures using Treasury yields, inflation, inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates
This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates. The term structures are driven by state variables that include the short term real interest rate, expected inflation, a factor that models the changing level to which inflation is expected to revert, as well as four volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical solutions for the prices of nominal bonds, inflation-indexed bonds that have an indexation lag, the term structure of expected inflation, and inflation swap rates. The model parameters are estimated ...
Working Paper
On forecasting the term structure of credit spreads
Predictions of firm-by-firm term structures of credit spreads based on current spot and forward values can be improved upon by exploiting information contained in the shape of the credit-spread curve. However, the current credit-spread curve is not a sufficient statistic for predicting future credit spreads; the explanatory power can be increased further by exploiting information contained in the shape of the riskless-yield curve. In the presence of credit-spread and riskless factors, other macroeconomic, marketwide, and firm-specific risk variables do not significantly improve predictions of ...
Working Paper
On credit spread slopes and predicting bank risk
The authors examine whether credit-spread curves, engendered by a mandatory subordinated-debt requirement for banks, would help predict bank risk. They extract the credit-spread curves each quarter for each bank in our sample, and analyze the information content of credit-spread slopes. They find that credit-spread slopes are significant predictors of future credit spreads. However, credit-spread slopes do not provide significant additional information on future bank-risk variables, over and above other bank-specific and market-wide information.
Working Paper
Getting the most out of a mandatory subordinated debt requirement
Recent advances in asset pricing-the reduced-form approach to pricing risky debt and derivatives-are used to quantitatively evaluate several proposals for mandatory bank issue of subordinated debt. The authors find that credit spreads on both fixed- and floating-rate subordinated debt provide relatively clean signals of bank risk and are not unduly influenced by non-risk factors. Fixed-rate debt with a put is unacceptable, but making the putable debt floating resolves most problems. The authors' approach also helps to clarify several different notions of "bank risk."
Working Paper
Monitoring and controlling bank risk: does risky debt serve any purpose?
To examine whether mandating banks to issue subordinated debt would enhance market monitoring and control risk-taking, the authors extract the credit-spread curve for each banking firm in their sample. After controlling for changes in market and liquidity variables, they find that changes in credit spreads do not reflect changes in bank risk variables. The result is robust to firm type, examination rating, size, leverage, and profitability, as well as to different model specifications. They also find that issuing subordinated debt does not alter banks' risk-taking behavior. They conclude that ...
Working Paper
On flexibility, capital structure, and investment decisions for the insured bank
Most models of deposit insurance assume that the volatility of a bank's assets is exogenously provided. Although this framework allows the impact of volatility on bankruptcy costs and deposit insurance subsidies to be explored, it is static and does not incorporate the fact that equityholders can respond to market events by adjusting previous investment and leverage decisions. This paper presents a dynamic model of a bank that allows for such behavior. The flexibility of being able to respond dynamically to market information has value to equityholders. The impact and value of this ...