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Working Paper
Trade and the skill premium in developing countries: the role of intermediate goods and some evidence from Peru
The rise in income inequality in developing countries after trade liberalization has been a puzzle for trade theory, which predicts the opposite effect. The authors present a model with imported intermediate goods in which the relative wages of skilled labor can rise due to higher imports of inputs or due to skill-biased technological change. The evidence from Peru in the post-liberalization phase in the early 1990s supports the skilled-biased technological change hypothesis. The authors find that most of the decrease in the blue-collar wage share in the manufacturing industries can be ...
Working Paper
Does employing undocumented workers give firms a competitive advantage?
Using administrative data from the state of Georgia, this paper finds that on average, among all firms, employing undocumented workers reduces a firm's hazard of exit by 19 percent. However, the impact varies greatly across sectors. In addition, a firm is at a distinct disadvantage if it does not employ undocumented workers but its rivals do. The advantage to employing undocumented workers increases as more firms in the industry do so. In addition, the advantage to a firm from employing undocumented workers decreases with the skill level of the firm's workers, increases with the breadth of a ...
Working Paper
Undocumented worker employment and firm survivability
Do firms employing undocumented workers have a competitive advantage? Using administrative data from the state of Georgia, this paper investigates the incidence of undocumented worker employment across firms and how it affects firm survival. Firms are found to engage in herding behavior, being more likely to employ undocumented workers if competitors do. Rivals' undocumented employment harms firms' ability to survive while firms' own undocumented employment strongly enhances their survival prospects. This finding suggests that firms enjoy cost savings from employing lower-paid undocumented at ...
Journal Article
Dollarization: will the quick fix pay off in the long run?
Working Paper
The labor market experience and impact of undocumented workers
Using administrative data from the state of Georgia, the authors find that average wages among documented workers are lower in industries that employ undocumented workers and that a greater share of undocumented workers in those industries further lowers wages. In addition, undocumented workers have significantly lower labor supply elasticity, likely as a result of their limited employment and grievance opportunities. Furthermore, the inflow of undocumented workers does more to displace earlier hired undocumented workers than it does to displace documented workers.
Journal Article
Reform fatigue: symptoms, reasons, and implications
Following a period of ambitious promarket reforms, Latin American policymakers and the public at large have entered a period of ?reform fatigue.? Initial enthusiasm for policies such as liberalized markets and a level field for investors has given way more recently to the view that ambitious promarket reforms are to blame for the region?s economic crises. The process of reform has stalled in some countries, and a few have suffered serious setbacks. ; To help explore the future of reform, this article aims to document and explain the symptoms of fatigue among the public, policymakers, and ...
Working Paper
Stabilization programs and policy credibility: Peru in the 1990s
This paper uses a rational expectations macroeconomic model in which economic agents formulate the probability about the sustainability of the economic policy?that is, policy credibility?using current and lagged values of government expenditures and lagged values of the inflation rate. The estimation of the model is based on Hamilton?s switching regime procedure. The contribution of this paper is the empirical estimation of the credibility of the stabilization program implemented in Peru in August 1990. The results of the estimation show that there are two different regimes in the government ...
Journal Article
Official dollarization and the banking system in Ecuador and El Salvador
In January 2000 Ecuador adopted the U.S. dollar as legal tender, and El Salvador followed suit in 2001. The two countries officially dollarized under quite different circumstances: Ecuador was suffering an economic and banking crisis, while El Salvador enjoyed economic stability and low inflation rates. This article studies the evolution of the banking system in these two countries before and after official, or full, dollarization. ; In Ecuador the reforms that ensued from full dollarization have improved transparency and banking performance and competitiveness, but the implementation and ...
Journal Article
A mixed blessing: oil and Latin American economies
Working Paper
Can capital-skill complementarity explain the rising skill premium in developing countries? evidence from Peru
The factors behind the increase in the relative wages of skilled workers in developing countries are still not well understood. The authors use data from Peru to analyze the determinants of within-industry share of skilled workers. They use a translog cost function for gross output and are therefore able to incorporate the effects of materials, both domestic and imported, in addition to capital. The authors find that capital accumulation can explain a large fraction of the increase in the wage bill share and relative wages of skilled labor. This finding is contrary to the commonly held view ...