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Journal Article
Growth and the current account deficit
Journal Article
U.S. production abroad
Journal Article
Reforming Social Security: a welfare analysis
Journal Article
Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?
The expansion of United States manufacturing exports has spread unevenly across states. Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard use shift-share analysis to account for the difference between a state?s manufacturing export growth and national manufacturing export growth between 1988 and 1998. Three effects are examined. The industry mix effect indicates that a state should have experienced export growth above the national average if its exports were relatively more concentrated in industries whose exports expanded faster than the national average. The destination effect indicates that a ...
Journal Article
Trade between the United States and Eastern Europe
Working Paper
The effects of aging and myopia on the pay-as-you-go social security systems of the G7
The Social Security systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when populations were young and the number of contributors far outweighed the number of beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this downward trend is projected to accelerate. To evaluate the prospects for these economies we develop an overlapping generations model in which growth is endogenously fueled by individuals' investments in physical and human capital and by the government's investment in human capital via public education expenditures. We analyze individuals' behavior when ...
Working Paper
Exchange rate pass-through in U. S. manufacturing: exchange rate index choice and asymmetry issues
This paper explores two issues that have received limited attention in the exchange rate pass-through literature. First, are the pass-through estimates sensitive to the choice of the exchange rate index? Second, are pass-through estimates asymmetric with respect to the sign of exchange rate changes? Using data for 87 industries, we find that the answer to both questions is yes. J-test results indicate that the "Major" exchange rate index produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System tends to fit the data better than two alternative indexes. With respect to asymmetry, we ...
Journal Article
A question of measurement: is the dollar rising or falling?
Trade-weighted exchange rate indexes that measure changes in the average foreign exchange value of the U. S. dollar produce different answers to how much the dollar has changed and, in some cases, even whether the value of the dollar has risen or fallen. After discussing the differences in constructing these indexes, Cletus C. Coughlin and Patricia S. Pollard examine some factors that might account for the contrasting views of changes in the dollar. Their analysis uses two indexes-one produced by the staff of the Board of Governors and the other by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. These ...
Working Paper
Aging, myopia and the pay-as-you-go public pension systems of the G7: a bright future?
The public pension systems of the G7 countries were established in an era when the number of contributors far outweighed the number of beneficiaries. Now, for each beneficiary there are fewer contributors, and this trend is projected to accelerate. To evaluate the prospects for these economies we develop an overlapping generations model where growth is endogenously fueled by investments in physical and human capital. We analyze individuals' behavior when their expectations over their length of life are rational or myopic and examine whether policies exist that can offset the effects of aging, ...
Journal Article
What drives large current account deficits?