Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 22.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Race and Environmental Worries
Working Paper
Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy
Working Paper
Bubbly Recessions
We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can result in excessive investment booms that precede inefficient busts. The collapse of a large bubble can push the economy into a "secular stagnation" equilibrium, where the zero lower bound and the nominal wage rigidity constraint bind, leading to a persistent and inefficient recession. We evaluate a ...
Working Paper
Asset Pledgeability and Endogenously Leveraged Bubbles
We develop a simple model of defaultable debt and rational bubbles in the price of an asset, which can be pledged as collateral in a competitive credit pool. When the asset pledgeability is low, the down payment is high, and bubble investment is unleveraged, as in a standard rational bubble model. When the pledgeability is high, the down payment is low, making it easier for leveraged borrowers to invest in the bubbly asset. As loans are packaged together into a competitive pool, the pricing of individual default risk may facilitate risk-taking. In equilibrium, credit-constrained borrowers may ...
Working Paper
Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States
We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross-section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1 degree F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state-level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.
Working Paper
Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation
We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk. We find that disaster risk and default risk together lead to slow post-disaster recovery and heightened borrowing costs. Calibrating the model to Mexico, we find that the increase in cyclone risk due to climate change leads to a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent 1% consumption drop. However, financial adaptation via catastrophe bonds and disaster insurance can reduce these losses by about 25%. Our study highlights the ...
Briefing
How Does Market Competition Affect Banks' Adaptation to Changes in Flood Risks?
This article examines the interplay between market competition and banks' strategic responses to projected long-term changes in flood risks, using data from the home-equity credit market post-Hurricane Harvey. Our work reveals that banks updated their risk models based on exposure to the hurricane, with those in competitive markets less likely to adopt cautious lending practices. It also explores the concept of strategic complementarity, showing that banks' adaptive behaviors are influenced by their competitors. These findings shed insights on how market forces may influence the way banks ...
Working Paper
Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances
We analyze the relationships between bubbles, capital flows, and economic activities in a rational bubble model with two large open economies. We establish a reinforcing relationship between global imbalances and bubbles. Capital flows from South to North facilitate the emergence and the size of bubbles in the North. Bubbles in the North in turn facilitate South-to-North capital flows. The model can simultaneously explain several stylized features of recent bubble episodes.
Briefing
Pricing and Mispricing of Climate Risks in U.S. Financial Markets
There is a rapidly growing research literature studying the effects of climate change risks on financial markets. Recent evidence suggests that markets have started to price climate risks. However, the extent of pricing varies across markets and time, and there is evidence of potential market inefficiencies. This article will highlight some key findings and their policy implications.
Briefing
The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth
What happens to the economy when it gets hot outside? Despite long-standing assumptions that economic damage from rising global temperatures would be limited to the agricultural sector or developing economies, this Economic Brief presents evidence that higher summer temperatures hurt a variety of business sectors in the United States