Search Results
Showing results 1 to 7 of approximately 7.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Emerging labor shortages and real wages in the 1990s
Journal Article
Industrial production and capacity utilization: the 2006 annual revision
On December 11, 2006, the Federal Reserve published revisions to its index of industrial production and the related measures of capacity and capacity utilization. The revision affected the data from 1972 through October 2006, but the largest changes were for the period beginning in 2003. From the fourth quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2006, industrial production, as revised, increased about 13/4 percentage points less than previously reported. By year, the change in output was revised down a little for 2003, down substantially for 2004, up a little for 2005, and down a touch for 2006. ...
Working Paper
Consumer sentiment and the stock market
This paper examines the relationship between movements in consumer sentiment and stock prices. At the aggregate level, the two share a strong contemporaneous relationship: an increase in equity values boosts sentiment. However, I examined the nature of the relationship between the two. Does an increase in stock prices raise aggregate sentiment because people are wealthier or because they use movements in stock prices as an indicator of future economic activity and potential labor income growth? Using individual observations from the Michigan survey I found results more consistent with the ...
Working Paper
The sources of worker anxiety: evidence from the Michigan survey
This paper uses individual responses from the Michigan SRC survey of consumer attitudes to examine worker anxiety. It identifies "anxious" households (those that express some concern about job security) and analyzes some factors that might be driving this angst. It found that a little more than a quarter of households revealed concerns about job security. Also, the results suggest that less-educated households (those lacking a high-school diploma) were significantly more likely to be concerned about job loss than were black or Asian households.
Working Paper
Temporary employment and the natural rate of unemployment
This paper examines the determinants of the natural rate of unemployment using a combined cross section and time series data set. The results suggest that industry composition affects the natural rate. In particular, a higher share of temporary employment in a local labor market tends to lower the natural rate of unemployment--most likely through the matching function. The results suggest that the increase in the share of temporary employment may have reduced the natural rate as much as 1/4 percentage point. The results also indicate that unemployment insurance benefits tend to boost the ...
Working Paper
Incentives and prices for motor vehicles: what has been happening in recent years?
We address the construction of price indexes for consumer vehicles using data collected from a national sample of dealerships. The dataset contains highly disaggregate data on actual sales prices and quantities, along with information on customer cash rebates, financing terms, and much more. Using these data, we are able to capture the actual cash and financing incentives taken by consumers, and we demonstrate that their inclusion in measures of consumer vehicle prices is important. We also document other features of retail vehicle markets that interact and overlap with price measurement ...