Working Paper
Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI
Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (2006)
This work estimates Markov switching models on real time data and shows that the growth rate of gross domestic income (GDI), deflated by the GDP deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of real GDP. This result suggests that placing an increased focus on GDI may be useful in assessing the current state of the economy. In addition, the paper shows that the definition of a low-growth phase in the Markov switching models has changed over the past couple of decades. The models increasingly define this phase as an extended period of around zero ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-07

Working Paper
Regime-Switching Models for Estimating Inflation Uncertainty
Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (2015-09-01)
This paper constructs regime-switching models for estimating the probability of inflation returning to its relatively high levels of variability and persistence in the 1970s and 1980s. Forecasts and probabilities of extreme events from the models are evaluated against comparable estimates from other statistical models, from surveys, and from financial markets. The paper then uses the models to construct prediction intervals around Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts of PCE price inflation, combining the recent non-parametric forecast error distribution with parametric information from the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-93

Working Paper
Improving GDP measurement: a measurement-error perspective
Schorfheide, Frank; Aruoba, S. Boragan; Song, Dongho; Nalewaik, Jeremy J.; Diebold, Francis X. (2013)
We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties -- particularly as regards serial correlation -- differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.
Working Papers , Paper 13-16

Working Paper
Lack of signal error (LoSE) and implications for OLS regression: measurement error for macro data
Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (2008)
This paper proposes a simple generalization of the classical measurement error model, introducing new measurement errors that subtract signal from the true variable of interest, in addition to the usual classical measurement errors (CME) that add noise. The effect on OLS regression of these lack of signal errors (LoSE) is opposite the conventional wisdom about CME: while CME in the explanatory variables causes attenuation bias, LoSE in the dependent variable, not the explanatory variables, causes a similar bias under some conditions. In addition, LoSE in the dependent variable shrinks the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2008-15

Journal Article
Texas-Mexico trade after NAFTA
Taylor, Lori L.; Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (1996-09)
Southwest Economy , Issue Sep , Pages 1-5

Working Paper
Non-Linear Phillips Curves with Inflation Regime-Switching
Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (2016-08)
Building on the results in Nalewaik (FEDS 2015-93), this work models wage growth and core PCE price inflation as regime-switching processes, whose characteristics in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s differ fundamentally from their characteristics in the 1960s and from the mid-1990s to present. The key innovation here is the addition to the models of fundamental driving variables like labor-market slack, and the evidence strongly suggests a non-linear effect of slack on wage growth and core PCE price inflation that becomes much larger after labor markets tighten beyond a certain point. The ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-078

Journal Article
Despite short-term volatility, dollar's value stable for nearly a decade
Gould, David M.; Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (1997-01)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jan , Pages 10

Working Paper
News, noise, and estimates of the \"true\" unobserved state of the economy
Nalewaik, Jeremy J.; Fixler, Dennis J. (2007)
Which provides a better estimate of the "true" state of the U.S. economy, gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI)? Past work has assumed the difference between each estimate and the "true" state of the economy is pure noise, taking greater variability to imply lower reliability. We posit instead that each difference may be pure news; then greater variability implies higher information content and greater reliability. This is a general point, applicable to numerous situations beyond the case of combining GDP and GDI. For that particular case, we analyze various vintages ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2007-34

Journal Article
Chile: the big saver
Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (1996-07)
Southwest Economy , Issue Jul , Pages 10

Working Paper
The response of capital goods shipments to demand over the business cycle
Pinto, Eugénio; Nalewaik, Jeremy J. (2012)
This paper studies the behavior of producers of capital goods, examining how they set shipments in response to fluctuations in new orders. The paper establishes a stylized fact: the response of shipments to orders is more pronounced when the level of new orders is low relative to the level of shipments, usually after orders plunge in recessions. This cyclical change in firm behavior is quantitatively important, accounting for a large portion of the steep decline in equipment investment in the 2001 and 2007--9 recessions. We examine economic interpretations of this stylized fact using a model ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2012-30