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Briefing
A Rate Cycle Unlike Any Other
Since the Federal Open Market Committee began raising the federal funds rate in March 2022, people have speculated on the trajectory of both monetary policy and the economy. By looking at previous rate cycles, this article compares historical monetary policy cycles with the current period. We find the current cycle to be unique in terms of both the speed at which interest rates rose and the movement of inflation during the series of rate hikes.
Briefing
How Persistent Is Inflation?
As inflation has risen during the past year, it is natural to ask: "How long will this period of high inflation last?" This question is important to households and firms forming expectations about the future, as well as policymakers deciding what actions to take against rising prices. In this Economic Brief, we provide a framework for thinking about inflation and conduct an analysis concerning the persistence of contemporaneous shocks that move price levels. In recent decades, the persistence of inflation has been low, especially when compared to the high inflation of the late 1970s and early ...
Briefing
What Survey Measures of Inflation Expectations Tell Us
Throughout this period of high inflation, people have wondered when inflation will return to the FOMC's longer-run target of 2 percent. Many models and surveys on inflation expectations exist to help answer this question. In this Economic Brief, we explore the accuracy of these measures of inflation expectations and what information can be obtained from them. While we find these popular sources of inflation are historically inaccurate, they can still gather valuable information, such as people's confidence in the ability of the Fed to get inflation back to target.