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Journal Article
Contemporaneous reserve accounting
Journal Article
Index numbers and the measurement of real GDP
The measures of real GDP and inflation are aggregates of many individual prices and quantities. These variables are measured using fixed-weight indexes, which can give a misleading impression of price and output changes in a particular year if the structures of output and relative prices are different from those in the base year. This measurement problem adds to the uncertainties facing policymakers. ; These ambiguities result from the definitions of output and inflation in use. This article describes alternative measures of growth and inflation that have a stronger theoretical basis and ...
Journal Article
Long-run trends in labor supply
The recent "benign" combination of strong output growth and low inflation has led to speculation that the potential growth rate of real GDP has increased. This paper examines trends in labor supply to see whether this source of GDP growth might have accelerated. Discussions of labor supply often focus on labor force participation. But other considerations--such as the length of the workweek, the amount of time spent away from work and the demographic structure of the population--also have been important in causing trend shifts in labor supply. My ...
Journal Article
Temple secrets
Journal Article
Deficits, interest rates and the economy
Journal Article
Should money be redefined?
Journal Article
Whither the unemployment rate?
Journal Article
M-2 as a monetary target
Journal Article
The saving shortfall
Journal Article
Would a new monetary aggregate improve policy?