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Briefing
The Road to Cyberinfrastructure at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
As economic models grow in computational complexity and researchers increase their data needs, the staff at the Center for the Advancement of Data and Research in Economics (CADRE) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City needed to develop an environment that could facilitate better research accommodating these new factors. Staff have worked through multiple technological changes to design and deliver the right infrastructure to meet researchers’ needs, from the development of the first high-performance computing (HPC) environment at the Bank, to the research and coincident development of ...
Journal Article
Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis
This article evaluates the ability of the yield spread to forecast real economic activity in 11 industrial countries. The first section of this article defines the yield spread and explains why the spread may be a useful predictor of real economic activity. The second section describes the data and criteria used to evaluate the predictive power of the yield spread. The third section examines whether yield spreads have reliably forecast real economic activity in the 11 countries, using several measures of real economic activity and alternative forecast horizons. The empirical results indicate ...