Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 49.
(refine search)
Journal Article
The right way to price Federal Reserve services
Journal Article
Higher deficit policies lead to higher inflation
Working Paper
A monetarist approach to federal budget control
Journal Article
Deficit policies, deficit fallacies
Journal Article
Using monthly data to improve quarterly model forecasts
This article describes a new way to use monthly data to improve the national forecasts of quarterly economic models. This new method combines the forecasts of a monthly model with those of a quarterly model using weights that maximize forecasting accuracy. While none of the method's steps is new, it is the first method to include all of them. It is also the first method to be shown to improve quarterly model forecasts in a statistically significant way. And it is the first systematic forecasting method to be shown, statistically, to forecast as well as the popular survey of major economic ...
Report
The quantitative significance of the Lucas critique
Doan, Litterman, and Sims (DLS) have suggested using conditional forecasts to do policy analysis with Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models. Their method seems to violate the Lucas critique, which implies that coefficients of a BVAR model will change when there is a change in policy rules. In this paper we construct a BVAR macro model and attempt to determine whether the Lucas critique is important quantitatively. We find evidence following two candidate policy rule changes of significant coefficient instability and of a deterioration in the performance of the DLS method.
Working Paper
Forecasting with econometric methods: a comment