Journal Article
Consensus forecasts: tyranny of the majority?
McNees, Stephen K. (1987-11)
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 15-21

Journal Article
Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions
McNees, Stephen K. (1987-03)
New England Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 31-40

Journal Article
How well do financial markets predict the inflation rate?
McNees, Stephen K. (1989-09)
New England Economic Review , Issue Sep , Pages 31-46

Journal Article
The discount rate: the other tool of monetary policy
McNees, Stephen K. (1993-07)
Although open market operations are clearly the primary monetary policy tool, the discount rate is not without influence. Federal Reserve Banks propose any discount rate changes, and the Board of Governors decides whether to accept, reject, or take no action on their requests. This article examines the involvement and influence of the various Reserve Banks in this process, exploring their participation over a 20-year period. The historical analysis shows that Reserve Banks differ in the frequency, persistence, and direction of their proposals for change. ; The article also develops ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 3-22

Journal Article
How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?
McNees, Stephen K. (1988-07)
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 15-36

Journal Article
Modeling the Fed: a forward- looking monetary policy reaction function
McNees, Stephen K. (1986-11)
New England Economic Review , Issue Nov , Pages 3-8

Journal Article
The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective
McNees, Stephen K. (1992-01)
Nearly a decade has passed since the last U.S. recession ended, and memories of prior recessionary experiences may now have grown dim. The objective of this article is twofold: to provide a concise review of post-World War II recessions, with an eye to identifying their most distinctive features as well as their common elements; and to investigate the extent to which knowledge of a recessionary period provides insight into the subsequent expansion. ; The articles conclusions are necessarily tentative as the date the 1990-91 recession ended had not been officially designated at the time of its ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 3-22

Journal Article
Man vs. model? The role of judgment in forecasting
McNees, Stephen K. (1990-07)
This article presents evidence on the role that judgmental adjustments play in macroeconomic forecast accuracy. It starts by contrasting the predictive records of four prominent forecasters who adjust their models with those of three models that are used mechanically. The adjusted forecasts tend to be more accurate overall, although important exceptions can be found. Next the article compares adjusted forecasts with those generated mechanically by the same models. Again, with some significant exceptions, judgmental adjustments improve accuracy more often than not. ; The article closes by ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 41-52

Journal Article
Why do forecasts differ?
McNees, Stephen K. (1989-01)
New England Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 42-54

Journal Article
\"Whither New England\"?
McNees, Stephen K.; Tootell, Geoffrey M. B. (1991-07)
This article attempts to identify precursors, or indicators, of New England employment. The predictive power of a diverse array of variables is calculated and compared. However, because no single variable is likely to contain all information of predictive value, the article then explores alternative methods of combining several variables into an index or statistical "model" of New England employment growth. The variables are separated into regional, national, and expectational in order to measure the predictive value of each type of information. ; In both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, ...
New England Economic Review , Issue Jul , Pages 11-26