Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 12.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle
Capital flows into emerging markets are volatile and associated with risks. A common prescription is to impose counter-cyclical capital controls that tighten during economic booms to mitigate future sudden-stop dynamics, but it has been challenging to document such patterns in the data. Instead, we show that emerging markets tighten their capital controls in response to volatility in international financial markets and elevated risk aversion. We develop a model in which this behavior arises from a desire to manipulate the risk premium. When investors are more risk-averse or markets are ...
Journal Article
Price Pressures for U.S. Exporters and a Strong Dollar Have Increased Inflation in Foreign Countries
As the higher demand for imported goods during the pandemic has moderated, U.S. export prices have become an important factor in determining inflationary pressures from the United States. As of 2022:Q2, export prices increased by 11.8 percent annualized, far exceeding the historical average of 3.75 percent. Further, 58 percent of the increase in export prices can be attributed to the recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while the remaining 42 percent can be attributed to price pressures for U.S. exporters.
Working Paper
The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices
This paper contributes to the literature on deviations from rational expectations in financial markets and to the literature on evaluating density forecasts. We first develop a novel statistic to evaluate the overall accuracy of distributional forecasts, and find two methods that yield accurate distributional forecasts. We then propose another statistic to examine the relative accuracy over the entire distribution range. Our results indicate more oil price realizations in the left tail than predicted. We argue that this finding points to a persistent behavioral forecasting bias and a ...
Working Paper
Downward Wage Rigidities and Recession Dynamics in Advanced and Emerging Economies*
Downward wage rigidity limits the downward adjustment of wages, especially during recessions. Although macroeconomic models generally suggest that wage rigidity exacerbates employment losses and generates asymmetric business cycles, direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper, we construct a data set covering 53countries, including both emerging markets and advanced economies, to measure and compare downward real wage rigidities across countries. We find that wage rigidities are widespread, but overall higher in emerging markets. We provide empirical evidence that countries with higher ...
Journal Article
Recent Appreciation in the U.S. Dollar Unlikely to Have Large Effect on Domestic Inflation
The U.S. dollar has appreciated more than 8.5 percent since May 2021, raising questions about potential effects on domestic inflation. If imports are billed in foreign currencies, then a strong dollar could reduce import prices and therefore domestic inflation. However, U.S. imports are almost entirely invoiced in U.S. dollars, dampening this effect. We find that the recent appreciation in the U.S. dollar has a negligible effect on domestic inflation as measured by the core price index for personal consumption expenditures.
Working Paper
National Interests, Spillovers and Macroprudential Coordination
This paper presents a simple two-region banking model of liquidity mismatch to study the strategic interactions between national regulators. I show that banks hold insufficient liquidity, which has repercussions for other banks in an international financial market. The model justifies coordinated prudential liquidity regulation due to an international fire-sale externality. However, I theoretically and empirically argue that domestically oriented regulators from jurisdictions with a smaller banking sector do not internalize the global benefits of regulation and therefore do not adhere to ...
Journal Article
China's Post-COVID Recovery: Implications and Risks
China removed most of its COVID-19 restrictions in November 2022 following a year of weak growth. Despite initial uncertainty about sustained COVID-19 outbreaks, the Chinese economy has begun to rebound, driven by domestic consumption. The rebound is likely to boost global growth.
Journal Article
To Reach the Fed’s Inflation Target, Interest Rates May Have to Remain Restrictive for Some Time
The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate by 500 basis points since March 2022. But how tight is the current policy stance? We account for the federal funds rate, inflation expectations, and the natural rate of interest and find that monetary policy has only been restrictive since 2023:Q1. We find that to bring inflation down to 2 percent, the Federal Reserve may have to keep the federal funds rate in restrictive territory for some time.
Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy Interlinkages
Emerging markets are concerned about sudden stops in international capital flows, which may lead to severe recessions associated with vicious spirals of currency depreciations and tightening borrowing constraints. A common prescription is to impose macroprudential policies, including prudential capital controls, to limit international borrowing especially in foreign currency. This paper analyzes the supportive role of macroprudential policies geared toward the domestic financial market, suggesting that emerging markets should resort to a wide mix of policies, even when the domestic financial ...
Journal Article
Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets around Fed Tightening Cycles
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes in 2022–23 raised concerns about spillover effects on smaller emerging market and developing economies. Historically, a higher U.S. federal funds rate has been associated with international investors withdrawing capital from emerging markets, which can lead to lower economic activity and depreciating exchange rates in these markets—and, in turn, greater financial vulnerability. To reduce capital outflows, central banks in emerging markets can tighten their own monetary policy rates to increase yields on debt securities. But raising interest ...