Discussion Paper
The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters
Siemer, Michael; Lincoln, William F.; McCallum, Andrew H. (2020-03-06)
While the large collapse in aggregate international trade volumes during the Great Recession has been widely studied in the literature, the recovery is much less well understood. Indeed, by 2014 U.S. foreign sales were still below their historical post-recession level. In this note, we summarize the results of Lincoln, McCallum, and Siemer (2019), which considers how much of a role a "missing generation of exporters" played in explaining the relatively slow growth of foreign sales after the financial crisis.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-03-06

Discussion Paper
The Rise of Exporting by U.S. Firms
Lincoln, William F.; McCallum, Andrew H. (2016-02-02)
In this note, we summarize the motivation and results of Lincoln and McCallum (2015), which investigates the factors supporting globalization by focusing on the experience of the United States.3 Along with the well-known expansion of export volumes, we document a significant increase in the prevalence of U.S. firms selling abroad. Using a firm level dataset and empirical model to identify the key determinants of U.S. firms' participation in export markets, we uncover that the development of the internet, new trade agreements, and growth in foreign income were important forces behind increased ...
IFDP Notes , Paper 2016-02-02

Working Paper
The Rise of Exporting By U.S. Firms
Lincoln, William F.; McCallum, Andrew H. (2016-02-10)
Although a great deal of ink has been spilled over the consequences of globalization, we do not yet fully understand the causes of increased worldwide trade. Using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census, we document widespread entry into countries abroad by U.S. firms from 1987 to 2006. We show that this extensive margin growth is unlikely to have been due to significant declines in entry costs. We instead find evidence of large roles for the development of the internet, trade agreements, and foreign income growth in driving these trends.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1157

Working Paper
The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters
Siemer, Michael; Lincoln, William F.; McCallum, Andrew H. (2017-11-03)
The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau. We find that incumbent exporters account for the vast majority of the decline in export volumes during the crisis. The recession also induced a missing generation of exporters, with large increases in exits and a substantial decline in entries into foreign markets. New exporters during these years tended to have ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-108