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Working Paper
The Effect of the Conservation Reserve Program on Rural Economies: Deriving a Statistical Verdict from a Null Finding
This article suggests two methods for deriving a statistical verdict from a null finding,allowing economists to more confidently conclude when ?not significant" can in fact be interpreted as ?no substantive effect." The proposed methodology can be extended to a variety of empirical contexts where size and power matter. The example used to demonstrate the method is the Economic Research Service's 2004 Report to Congress that was charged with statistically identifying any unintended negative employment consequences of the Conservation Reserve Program (the Program). The report failed to ...
Working Paper
Location decisions of natural gas extraction establishments: a smooth transition count model approach
The economic geography of the United States' energy landscape changed rapidly with domestic expansion of the natural gas sector. Recent work with smooth transition parameter models is extended to an establishment location model estimated using Poisson regression to test whether expansion of this sector, as evidenced by firm location decisions from 2005 to 2010, is characterized by different growth regimes. Results suggest business establishment growth of firms engaged in natural gas extraction was faster when the average area of shale and tight gas transition coverage in neighboring counties ...