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Working Paper
Forecasting with an adaptive control algorithm
We construct a parsimonious model of the U.S. macro economy using a state space representation and recursive estimation. At the core of the estimation procedure is a prediction/correction algorithm based on a recursive least squares estimation with exponential forgetting. The algorithm is a Kalman filter-type update method which minimizes the sum of discounted squared errors. This method reduces the contribution of past errors in the estimate of the current period coefficients and thereby adapts to potential time variation of parameters. The root mean square errors of out-of-sample forecast ...
Working Paper
The timing of disability insurance application: a choice-based semiparametric hazard model
We use a choice-based subsample of Social Security Disability Insurance applicants from the 1978 Social Security Survey of Disability and Work to test the importance of policy variables on the timing of application for disability insurance benefits following the onset of a work limiting health condition. We correct for choice-based sampling by extending the Manski-Lerman (1977) correction to the likelihood function of our continuous time hazard model defined with semiparametric unmeasured heterogeneity and find that this correction significantly affects the results. We find that economic ...
Journal Article
Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries