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Working Paper
The monetary transmission mechanism
The monetary transmission mechanism describes how policy-induced changes in the nominal money stock or the short-term nominal interest rate impact real variables such as aggregate output and employment. Specific channels of monetary transmission operate through the effects that monetary policy has on interest rates, exchange rates, equity and real estate prices, bank lending, and firm balance sheets. Recent research on the transmission mechanism seeks to understand how these channels work in the context of dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium models.
Journal Article
Using the permanent income hypothesis for forecasting
Journal Article
Financial evolution and the long-run behavior of velocity : new evidence from U.S. regional data
Innovations in the private financial sector influence the income velocity of money in an economy over the entire course of its development. In the early stages of growth, increased monetization, as manifested by the spread of the banking system, causes velocity to fall. Later, the emergence of nonbank financial intermediaries causes velocity to rise. Evidence of these patterns is found in regional demand deposit data from the United States.
Working Paper
Customer flows, countercyclical markups, and the persistent effects of monetary shocks
This paper develops a general equilibrium model in which households face fixed costs associated with searching for a new supplier of consumption goods. These search costs provide firms with some monopoly power over their existing customers and generate the kind of customer flow dynamics first considered by Phelps and Winter. Customer flows, in turn, cause markups of price over marginal cost to vary countercyclically, both amplify and propagate the effects of technology shocks on output, and allow the effects of monetary shocks on output to persist.
Working Paper
Endogenous financial innovation and the demand for money
This paper embeds two key ideas about the nature of financial innovation taken from the empirical literature into a familiar equilibrium monetary model. It provides formal support for several alternative econometric specifications for money demand that attempt to capture the effects of financial innovation and demonstrates that a popular theoretical model of money demand, when suitably modified, can account for some unusual monetary dynamics found in the data. Thus, it helps to establish both the theoretical relevance of recent empirical work and the empirical relevance of recent theoretical ...
Working Paper
Expectations, credibility, and time-consistent monetary policy
This paper addresses the problem of multiple equilibria in a model of time-consistent monetary policy. The author suggests that the problem originates in the assumption that agents have rational expectations and proposes several alternative restrictions on expectations that allow the monetary authority to build credibility for a disinflationary policy by demonstrating that it will stick to that policy even if it imposes short-run costs on the economy.
Working Paper
A method for taking models to the data
This paper develops a method for combining the power of a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model with the flexibility of a vector autoregressive time-series model to obtain a hybrid that can be taken directly to the data.
Working Paper
Stopping inflations, big and small
Previous studies of disinflation work with models in which firms use time-dependent strategies, changing nominal prices at intervals of fixed length. These models may be criticized for failing to allow pricing behavior to adjust after a large shift in policy regime. Consequently, this paper develops a model that allows firms to adopt strategies that are partially state-dependent, changing nominal prices whenever they deviate sufficiently from their target values. The paper uses this model to examine how the welfare costs and benefits of disinflation vary with the initial inflation rate and ...
Working Paper
Irrational expectations and econometric practice: discussion of Orphanides and Williams, \"Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy\"
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams' excellent conference paper, "Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy," contributes importantly to the new and rapidly growing branch of the literature on bounded rationality and learning in macroeconomics. Their paper, like many others, derives interesting and useful theoretical results that show how the introduction of bounded rationality and learning impacts on the effects of monetary policy shocks and the characteristics of optimal monetary policy rules. This note suggests that some additional empirical work-some "irrational ...
Conference Paper
Stopping inflations, big and small