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Journal Article
The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?
The recent surge in commodity prices has rekindled interest in their power to predict consumer price inflation. But is this interest warranted? In examining the empirical relationship between commodity prices and consumer price inflation, this article finds that commodities' reputation as useful leading indicators of inflation is actually based more on fable than fact. Testing eight commonly used indexes, the authors conclude that although commodities had some predictive power in the past, the commodity-consumer price connection has broken down in the more recent period. They argue that this ...
Journal Article
The supply-side consequences of U.S. fiscal policy in the 1980s
Fiscal policy changes in the 1980s had several possible implications for the long-run performance of the U.S. economy. The authors review the impact of tax reductions on saving, investment, and work effort, the implications of increased federal deficits for national saving and private investment, and the effect of shifts in the composition of government spending on public capital formation and on research and development. Using results from the empirical literature, the authors attempt to quantify the effects of these fiscal changes on the nation's economic potential.
Journal Article
Monetary policy influence on the economy-an empirical analysis
Journal Article
Forecasting automobile output
Journal Article
Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index
The purchasing managers' index is a widely watched but virtually untested indicator of manufacturing activity. This article examines how well the index lives up to its billing as a leading indicator. The author also explores whether the index supplies information about the economy beyond that already provided by other indicators.
Journal Article
The employment report and the dollar
Perhaps no piece of news garners more attention in exchange markets than the U.S. employment report. Yet there has been only limited research on the market's response to the monthly release. This article quantifies the impact of the report and explains why exchange market sensitivity to the employment announcements has increased over time.