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Working Paper
The Double-Edged Sword of Global Integration: Robustness, Fragility & Contagion in the International Firm Network
We estimate global inter-firm networks across all major industries from 1981 through 2016 and provide the first empirical tests for both robust (beneficial) and fragile (harmful) network behavior, relating firms' health with global integration. More connected firms are less likely to be in distress and have higher profit growth and equity returns, but are also more exposed to direct contagion from distressed neighboring firms and network level crises. Our analysis reveals the centrality of finance in the international firm network and increased globalization, with greater potential for crises ...
Three Macroeconomic Factors to Watch in Equity Markets
Machine learning has helped make music playlist recommendations, facilitated self-driving cars and even interpreted patients’ medical test results.
Journal Article
Global Interfirm Network Reveals Centrality of U.S. and Financial Sector
The global interfirm network indicates the level of integration among firms across industries and regions, which intensified with globalization in recent decades. While there is evidence of direct contagion passing between firms in the network, there are also indications that connectedness plays a role in a reduced likelihood of firm distress and improved performance.
Working Paper
Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks
We develop a multi-sector DSGE model to calculate upstream and downstream industry exposure networks from U.S. input-output tables and test the relative importance of shocks from each direction by comparing these with estimated networks of firms? equity return responses to one another. The correlations between the upstream exposure and equity return networks are large and statistically significant, while the downstream exposure networks have lower ? but still positive ? correlations that are not statistically significant. These results suggest a low short-term elasticity of substitution ...
Working Paper
Wages and human capital in finance: international evidence, 1970-2005
We study the allocation and compensation of human capital in the finance industry in a set of developed economies in 1970-2005. Finance relative skill intensity and skilled wages generally increase but not in all countries, and to varying degrees. Skilled wages in finance account for 36% of increases in overall skill premia, although finance only accounts for 5.4% of skilled private sector employment, on average. Financial deregulation, financial globalization and bank concentration are the most important factors driving wages in finance. Differential investment in information and ...
Working Paper
Exposure to international crises: trade vs. financial contagion
I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with two transmission channels that can be shocked separately: international trade and finance. The model is the first to include a government and heterogeneous firms that can default independently of one another and has a novel endogenous cost of sovereign default. I calibrate the model to the average ...