Working Paper
A regime shift in measured per capita consumption, with implications for asset prices and returns
Golob, John E. (1992)
Research Working Paper , Paper 92-06

Journal Article
How would a flat tax affect small businesses?
Golob, John E. (1996-07)
The U.S. Congress is considering several strategies to reform the federal income tax system. The most widely discussed strategy, a flat tax, would tax income received by businesses and individuals at the same low, flat rate. Flat tax proposals would eliminate most tax deductions and tax credits but would increase the personal exemption for individual taxpayers. While the debate continues over whether a flat tax would be fair to individual taxpayers, assessing the effect of a flat tax on economic growth and business activity is also important.> Most economists who analyze tax incentives ...
Economic Review , Volume 81 , Issue Q III , Pages 5-19

Journal Article
Does inflation uncertainty increase with inflation?
Golob, John E. (1994-07)
One of the most important costs of inflation is the uncertainty it creates about future inflation. This uncertainty clouds the decisionmaking of consumers and businesses and reduces economic well-being. Without this uncertainty, consumers and businesses could better plan for the future. According to many analysts, uncertainty about future inflation rises as inflation rises. As a result, these analysts argue that the Federal Reserve could reduce inflation uncertainty by reducing inflation. Other analysts argue that high inflation creates no more uncertainty than low inflation, as long as ...
Economic Review , Volume 79 , Issue Q III , Pages 27-38

Working Paper
Inflation and relative price variability : durables vs. nondurables and services
Bishop, David G.; Golob, John E. (1997)
Many researchers find a positive relationship between inflation and the variability of relative prices within aggregate price indices. This paper looks at the relationship between inflation and the variability of relative prices for three categories of the consumption deflator: durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. Consistent with previous research on relative price variability within aggregate consumption, we find inflation is positively correlated with relative price variability within both nondurables and services. In contrast, we find a negative correlation between inflation and ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 97-12

Working Paper
Has inflation become more predictable?
Golob, John E. (1994)
Research Working Paper , Paper 94-07

Working Paper
Do stock prices follow interest rates or inflation?
Bishop, David G.; Golob, John E. (1996)
Market analysts often forecast changes in stock prices by comparing earnings-price ratios on stocks to nominal interest rates. This paper shows that stock prices have followed inflation more closely than interest rates over the last thirty years. This result has implications for recent stock valuations, because the spread between nominal interest rates and inflation has recently been above historic averages. That is, stock prices appear more overvalued when the earnings-price ratio is compared to nominal interest rates than when the earnings-price ratio is compared to inflation. Our result ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 96-13

Working Paper
Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and relative price variability: a survey
Golob, John E. (1993)
Research Working Paper , Paper 93-15

Working Paper
Equities and the economy: another intertemporal anomaly
Golob, John E. (1995)
Intertemporal optimization models of the macroeconomy are consistent with several features of the business cycle, and these models have become familiar tools for analyzing economic cycles and the propagation of economic shocks. Critics of this dynamic equilibrium approach have pointed out, however, that the models often fail to replicate important features of both labor and financial markets. This paper identifies another financial market anomaly of intertemporal optimization models, the equity-economy puzzle, which is a negative correlation between equity prices and future economic growth. ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 95-16

Journal Article
What long-run returns can investors expect from the stock market?
Bishop, David G.; Golob, John E. (1997-07)
This article analyzes how macroeconomic fundamentals and high price-earnings ratios on stocks will affect long-run returns. The first section reviews the stock market's recent performance and describes how investors and analysts have reacted to this performance. The second section shows how macroeconomic trends imply that long-run returns will remain close to their 10 percent historical average. The third section analyzes the long-run relationship between price-earnings ratios and returns. The section shows that high price-earnings ratios are consistent with lower long-run returns, and argues ...
Economic Review , Volume 82 , Issue Q III , Pages 5-20

Journal Article
How would tax reform affect financial markets?
Golob, John E. (1995-10)
The U.S. Congress is evaluating several proposals to reform the federal income tax system. Proponents of tax reform want to simplify tax preparation and stimulate economic growth by increasing the incentives for taxpayers to work, save, and invest.> While the primary objective of tax reform is a more productive economy, changing the tax laws would also affect financial markets. Several of the proposals would change the way interest expenses are deducted and change the way income from interest, dividends, and capital gains is taxed. These changes would affect interest rates and the prices of ...
Economic Review , Volume 80 , Issue Q IV , Pages 19-39