Discussion Paper
Residual Seasonality in GDP
Gilbert, Charles E.; Morin, Norman J.; Paciorek, Andrew D.; Sahm, Claudia R. (2015-05-14)
With a second year in a row of unusually weak first-quarter growth, some analysts have argued that there may be residual seasonality in the GDP data, that is, a predictable seasonal pattern remains in the published data.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2015-05-14

Discussion Paper
Natural Disasters and the Measurement of Industrial Production: Hurricane Harvey, A Case Study
Bayard, Kimberly; Decker, Ryan A.; Gilbert, Charles E. (2017-10-11)
The Federal Reserve's G.17 release on industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization published on September 15, 2017, included one of the first estimates of the impact on a specific measure of economic activity by Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall in Texas on August 25. As reported in the release, total industrial production fell 0.9 percent in August, most of which (about 3/4 percentage point) could be accounted for by storm-related outages.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2017-10-11

Discussion Paper
Quantifying Bottlenecks in Manufacturing
Gilbert, Charles E.; Tito, Maria D.; Doniger, Cynthia L. (2021-11-19)
Shortages of key components and logistics problems have constrained factory output since the start of the year. Numerous anecdotes and survey measures have highlighted the emergence of supply chain bottlenecks and other supply constraints; to complement those qualitative characterizations, this note proposes a novel methodology to quantify bottlenecks in the manufacturing sector.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2021-11-19