Journal Article
How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT
Spiegel, Mark M.; Gerstein, Neil; Fernald, John G. (2019)
China?s official GDP shows that its pace of economic growth has slowed gradually since 2010 but remains remarkably high, around 6%. A new index, the China Cyclical Activity Tracker, or China CAT, provides an alternative way to measure fluctuations in Chinese economic activity using a weighted average of several non-GDP indicators. The index suggests that economic activity has slowed noticeably since 2017 to a pace slightly below trend. GDP growth statistics appear excessively smooth over recent years, but, as of mid-2019, are in line with the China CAT.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
The Brexit Price Spike
Nechio, Fernanda; Gerstein, Neil; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Hobijn, Bart (2019)
In June 2016, citizens of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union by a small majority. This looming departure became known as ?Brexit.? As a consequence of the Brexit referendum, the British pound depreciated sharply, and overall inflation ramped up in the following months. Comparing price movements between tradable and nontradable goods shows that close to two-thirds of the inflation spike in the United Kingdom since the Brexit vote can be attributed to the sharp movement in the exchange rate.
FRBSF Economic Letter