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Working Paper
Making Sense of Increased Synchronization in Global House Prices
Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, the trend toward increased synchronization has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across countries or cities. Theory and limited econometric evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more in-synch house price cycles ...
Working Paper
Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US
The consumption behaviour of U.K., U.S. and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando-Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S. but not Japanese households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption-to-income ratio shifted up in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage downpayment constraints eased and as the ...
Journal Article
The case of the missing M2
Since the third quarter of 1990, the growth of M2 in the United States has been weaker than econometric models predicted. John V. Duca assesses whether this shortfall in M2 growth is associated with inflows into bond and equity mutual funds or the thrift resolution process. ; Duca finds that while, to some degree, bond funds are good substitutes for M2, bond and equity funds do not account for the shortfall. Most of the missing M2, he concludes, appears to be related to activity of the Resolution Trust Corporation. Duca reasons that resolution procedures can depress M2 in ways not reflected ...
Journal Article
Firm churn on Main Street and Wall Street
Journal Article
Regulation, bank competitiveness, and episodes of missing money
John Duca reviews three episodes of "missing money," periods during which one of the monetary aggregates was unusually weak. Duca finds that in each of these episodes, an increased regulatory burden on banks encouraged households and firms to bypass the banking system in favor of nonbank financial liabilities and assets. Using a standard analytical framework, he shows how these shifts by investors can lead to cases of missing money and declines in banks' role in providing credit. Duca further shows that increases in bank regulatory burden can create potential problems for analysts in using ...
Discussion Paper
Trade credit and credit rationing: a theoretical model
Report
Will Oil Decline Lead to a House Price Bust?
The correlation between house prices and oil booms raises concerns because oil prices have fallen nearly as much from their 2014 peak (about 66 percent) as they did during the mid-1980s oil collapse (70 percent). That 1980s collapse preceded a long housing bust.
Journal Article
How increased product market competition may be reshaping America's labor markets
In this article, John Duca discusses how and why compensation has become more market sensitive in the United States. Specifically, he illustrates how fiercer product market competition can theoretically reduce the prevalence of nominal wage contracts and of indexation in such contracts, while boosting the use of profit sharing. He also summarizes empirical findings supporting the view that increased competition has reduced the use of nominal contracts and the indexation of contract wages, and presents limited, inconclusive data supporting the view that greater product market competition has ...
Journal Article
Monitoring money: should bond funds be added to M2?
One explanation for the unusually slow growth of M2 is that people shifted from bank deposits to higher yielding bond mutual funds. This possibility raises the question of whether the addition of bond funds to M2 would give policymakers a more accurate view of what is happening in the economy. To find the answer, I review why the money supply has been used as an indicator of nominal gross domestic product, explain why declines in bank competitiveness have led to episodes of missing money and describe bond funds. This discussion provides a basis for examining results from modeling M2 with and ...