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Working Paper
A model of crises in emerging markets
This paper presents a "first generation" model of speculative attacks on emerging markets. Credit-constrained governments accumulate liquid assets in order to self-insure against shocks to national consumption. Governments also insure poorly regulated domestic financial markets. Given this policy regime, a variety of internal and external shocks generate capital inflows followed by anticipated speculative attacks. The model suggests that a common shock generated capital inflows to emerging markets in Asia and Latin America after 1989. Country-specific factors determined the timing of ...
Conference Paper
Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea
Conference Paper
The U.S. current account deficit: collateral for a total return swap
Conference Paper
Dollars and deficits: where do we go from here?
Journal Article
Capital flight, external debt, and domestic policies
The international debt crisis of 1982 revealed that unrecorded private capital outflows from developing countries occurred simultaneously with borrowing from international commercial banks. Current interest in capital flight has been generated by the possibility that the resurgence of private capital inflows to these countries may be limited to the return of flight capital. A simple public finance model shows that simultaneous capital outflows and inflows can be explained as the result of private international arbitrage of domestic policies. The paper discusses the welfare consequences of ...
Conference Paper
Asian reserve diversification: does it threaten the pegs?