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Working Paper
Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle
Evidence suggests that macroprudential policy has small and insignificant effects on the volume of portfolio flows. We show, however, that these minor effects mask very different relationships across the global financial cycle. A tighter ex-ante macroprudential stance amplifies the impact of global risk shocks on bond and equity flows—increasing outflows by significantly more during risk-off episodes and increasing inflows significantly more during risk on episodes. These amplification effects are more prominent at the “extremes,” especially for extreme risk-off periods, and are larger ...
Journal Article
The G-Spread Suggests Federal Reserve Restored Calm to Treasury Markets
In March, the coronavirus pandemic led to a sell-off in Treasury markets and a subsequent period of financial stress. I use one measure of Treasury market pressure, the G-spread, to gauge how liquidity in Treasury markets changed in response to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions. I find that timely Federal Reserve interventions restored calm to the Treasury market, and that these interventions stand out in speed and scale compared with interventions in the early days of the 2007–08 financial crisis.
Journal Article
Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Interest Rate Spillovers
After the 2008 global financial crisis, advanced economies turned to unconventional monetary policies to provide additional monetary stimulus while short-term interest rates were constrained by their effective lower bound. However, the speed of economic recovery differed markedly among these economies, leading to differences in the timing and intensity of unconventional monetary policies across central banks. These differences may have generated “spillover effects” that undermined policy tightening in the United States after 2015.Karlye Dilts Stedman assesses whether monetary policies ...
Working Paper
Foreign Reserve Management and U.S. Money Market Liquidity: A Cost of Exorbitant Privilege
We show theoretically and empirically that the dollar’s status as the global reserve currencycan lead to economically significant changes in U.S. money market liquidity. We develop amodel in which U.S. money market spreads respond to foreign central banks’ exchange-ratemanagement decisions. Foreign central banks remove liquidity from U.S. money markets andcause spreads to widen by selling Treasuries to supply liquidity to their financial systems.Our analysis focuses on the major oil exporting countries with fixed exchange rates becausetheir foreign-exchange market interventions are ...
Working Paper
Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk
This paper characterizes the implications of risk-on/risk-off shocks for emerging market capital flows and returns. We document that these shocks have important implications not only for the median of emerging markets flows and returns but also for the left tail. Further, while there are some differences in the effects across bond vs. equity markets and flows vs. asset returns, the effects associated with the worst realizations are generally larger than on the median realization. We apply our methodology to the COVID-19 shock to examine the pattern of flow and return realizations: the sizable ...
Journal Article
Why Has Monetary Policy Tightening Not Cooled the Labor Market Enough to Quell Inflation?
Despite a year of rapidly rising interest rates, labor markets remain tight, likely contributing to the persistence of inflation. We create industry-specific versions of the KC Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) to examine labor market tightness in different sectors. We find that labor markets in the services sector—which have contributed substantially to recent labor market tightness and inflation—are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, increasing the lag for monetary policy transmission.
Journal Article
When Normalizing Monetary Policy, the Order of Operations Matters
As economic conditions in the United States continue to improve, the FOMC may consider normalizing monetary policy. Whether the FOMC reduces the balance sheet before raising the federal funds rate (or vice versa) may affect the shape of the yield curve, with consequences for financial institutions. Drawing lessons from the previous normalization in 2015–19, we conclude that normalizing the balance sheet before raising the funds rate might forestall yield curve inversion and, in turn, support economic stability.
Working Paper
Unconventional Monetary Policy, (A)Synchronicity and the Yield Curve
This paper examines international spillovers from unconventional monetary policy between the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Japan, and assesses the influence of asynchronous policy normalization on the slope of the yield curve. Using high frequency futures data to identify monetary policy surprises and controlling for contemporaneous news, I find that spillovers increase during periods of unconventional monetary policy and strengthen during asynchronous policy normalization. Local projections suggest persistent spillovers from the Federal Reserve, whereas other ...
Journal Article
FOMC Communication Spillovers: Is There a "Call-Out" Effect?
Foreign asset prices may react to FOMC communication that references specific countries, but the effects are minimal.