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Working Paper
Drought and Cattle: Implications for Ranchers
Drought has occurred with greater intensity and frequency in many areas of the United States in recent years. Despite the growing concern surrounding the impacts of drought on the agricultural sector, few studies have quantified the impact of drought on the cattle industry. In this paper, we estimate the impacts of drought on cattle herd management, hay production, hay prices, and farm income in the United States from 2000 to 2022. Our results indicate that drought negatively impacts hay production and results in higher hay prices. Drought also contributes to herd liquidation and is ...
Journal Article
Dampened Demand for Bank Loans Reflects Supply Bottlenecks, Not a Weakness in the Recovery
Throughout the pandemic, banks have experienced weak business loan demand. Although banks expectdemand to grow as the worst of the pandemic wanes and the economy recovers, loan demand mayremain weak in some industries due to persistent supply chain bottlenecks.
Working Paper
Housing Market Value Impairment from Future Sea-level Rise Inundation
Sea level rise will pose increased risks to U.S. coastal real estate markets in the coming decades, though the direct economic costs depend on the severity and uncertainty within climate-change scenarios.
Journal Article
Did Local Factors Contribute to the Decline in Bank Branches?
Although the total number of bank branches in the United States increased from the mid-1990s to 2007, this number has declined since the 2007-08 financial crisis. A loss in bank branches is potentially problematic because it may reduce customers? access to financial services as well as small businesses? access to credit. Changes in local conditions may partly explain this loss: the number of branches varies signficantly across geographic areas, and local conditions have been shown to influence past trends in bank branching. {{p}} Rajdeep Sengupta and Jacob Dice examine the relationship ...
Journal Article
Understanding the Recent Rise in Municipal Bond Yields
In late March, investors sold off municipal bonds at a rapid pace, depressing municipal bond prices and driving up their yields relative to U.S. Treasuries. We find that this initial investor run on the municipal bond market was likely due to increased liquidity demand rather than credit concerns, making the Federal Reserve’s early actions to relieve liquidity stress effective. Going forward, however, municipal bond prices will likely reflect increased credit concerns.
Journal Article
Drought Risk to the Agriculture Sector
Drought is a perennial and long-term risk that can negatively affect the farm economy through lower yields, loss of crops, reduced farm revenues, and lower sales for farm suppliers. As risks from climate change mount, understanding how drought will affect farmers across the country has become even more important. Drought risk can vary by region, crop type, and production method, and may disproportionately affect some farmers more than others. Although many farmers have crop insurance to protect against losses, insurance does not cover all of their crop’s value, and even insured farmers face ...