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Working Paper
Saving-investment associations and capital mobility on the evidence from Japanese regional data
We will examine the size of the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) "saving-retention coefficient" in a setting of near perfect capital mobility, Japanese regions. We first find that on total regional saving and investment rate data, inclusive of regional government saving and investment, the estimate of the coefficient is negative. This negative relationship in the total rates across Japanese regions appears to arise from the strong negative association in the government saving and investment rates.
Conference Paper
Financial intermediation, agency and collateral and the dynamics of banking crises: theory and evidence for the Japanese banking crisis
We outline a model of an endogenously evolving banking crisis in a growing economy subject to either idiosyncratic or aggregate productivity shocks. The model incorporates agency problems at two levels: between firms and their banks and between banks and the banks? depositors and deposit insurers. In equilibrium, banks have an incentive to renegotiate loans to insolvent firms, leading to an increasing contingent liability of the government with deposit insurance and regulatory forbearance. The growth rate of output is endogenous, and we explain how the agency problems affect the qualitative ...
Conference Paper
A quantitative analysis of China’s structural transformation
Between 1978 and 2003 the Chinese economy experienced a remarkable 5.7 percent annual growth of GDP per labor. At the same time, there has been a noticeable transformation of the economy: the share of workers in agriculture decreased from over 70 percent to less than 50 percent. We distinguish three sectors: private agriculture and nonagriculture and public nonagriculture. A growth accounting exercise reveals that the main source of growth was TFP in the private nonagricultural sector. The reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture accounted for 1.9 percent out of the 5.7 ...
Working Paper
Technological progress and endogenous capital depreciation: evidence from the U.S. and Japan
Japanese government planners use the average age of the manufacturing capital stock as one measure of their country's international "competitiveness." Compared to the U.S., the data show that Japanese depreciation rates are higher and that capital stocks are younger. ; In much of economic analysis, higher rates of depreciation are assumed to result in poorer economic performance. A high depreciation rate lowers the net capital stock, and decreases the level of output. ; In this paper, we argue that Japan's high depreciation rate is caused by that country's high rate of technological ...
Working Paper
A quantitative analysis of China’s structural transformation
Between 1978 and 2003 the Chinese economy experienced a remarkable 5.7 percent annual growth of GDP per labor. At the same time, there has been a noticeable transformation of the economy: the share of workers in agriculture decreased from over 70 percent to less than 50 percent. We distinguish three sectors: private agriculture and nonagriculture and public nonagriculture. A growth accounting exercise reveals that the main source of growth was TFP in the private nonagricultural sector. The reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture accounted for 1.9 percent out of the 5.7 ...
Working Paper
Financial intermediation, agency, and collateral and the dynamics of banking crises: theory and evidence for the Japanese banking crisis
We outline a model of an endogenously evolving banking crisis in a growing economy subject to either idiosyncratic or aggregate productivity shocks. The model incorporates agency problems at two levels: between firms and their banks and between banks and the banks' depositors and deposit insurers. In equilibrium, banks have an incentive to renegotiate loans to insolvent firms, leading to an increasing contingent liability of the government with deposit insurance and regulatory forbearance. The growth rate of output is endogenous, and we explain how the agency problems affect the qualitative ...
Working Paper
Deposit insurance, regulatory forbearance and economic growth: implications for the Japanese banking crisis
An endogenous growth model with financial intermediation is used to show how public deposit insurance and weak prudential regulation can lead to banking crises and permanent declines in economic growth. The impact of regulatory forbearance on investment, saving and asset price dynamics under perfect foresight are derived in the model. The assumptions of the theoretical model are based on essential features of the Japanese financial system and its regulation. The model demonstrates how banking and growth crises can evolve under perfect foresight. The dynamics for economic aggregates and asset ...