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Working Paper
A minor redefinition of M2
This paper recommends redefining M2 by shifting overnight wholesale RPs and overnight Eurodollars from non-M1 M2 to non-M2 M3. The overnight components are quite volatile and difficult to measure accurately. Their movements no longer exhibit the negative correlation with demand deposits that had been observed in 1980, when these components were originally included in M2. The redefinition does not affect the quarterly and annual behavior of M2, nor its relationship to interest rates and income.
Working Paper
Prediction techniques for Box-Cox regression models
Working Paper
Modeling U.S. households' demand for liquid wealth in an era of financial change
Money demand models overpredicted M2 growth in the United States from 1990 to 1993. We examine this overprediction using a model of household demand for liquid wealth. The model is a dynamic generalization of the almost-ideal demand model of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980). We find that the own-price elasticity of money demand rose substantially after 1990. We also find important cross-price elasticities of money with respect to other liquid financial assets, notably with respect to mutual funds. Incorporating these and other features helps explain nearly 50 percent of the shortfall in M2 growth ...
