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Journal Article
Don't worry, we'll grow out of it: an analysis of demographics, consumer spending, and foreign debt
An analysis of the impact of the baby-boom generation's inrush into the work force on consumer spending, debt, and foreign investment, finding evidence that age demographics are a strong determinant of aggregate household consumption.
Journal Article
Beauty and the bulls: the investment characteristics of paintings
An examination of the investment and consumption characteristics of the paintings market between 1971 and 1984, using the capital asset pricing model.
Report
Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings
This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly different price concepts. For near-term inflation, the "prices in general" question in the monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers can elicit responses that focus on the most visible prices, such as gasoline or food. Questions on the "rate of inflation" can lead to responses on the ...
Journal Article
The consumer price index and national saving
An argument that lowering COLAs for Social Security benefits and adjusting the Consumer Price Index to better reflect the cost-of-living increases that result from inflation will alleviate two long-range problems: escalating federal budget deficits and exceedingly low national saving.
Journal Article
Unemployment insurance: an old lesson for the new federalism?
An examination of America's unemployment insurance system, covering its origin and financing, its solvency problems, and the potential effects of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 as an example of what might be expected from defederalizing government programs.
Journal Article
The financial distress in American farming
An analysis of the uneven distribution of problem debt among the nation' s farmers, a discussion of the effect of this debt on agricultural banks, and an estimate of the probable impact of farm debt problems on the nation.
Journal Article
Oil, the economy, and monetary policy
An examination of the theoretical impact of an oil shortage on the U.S. economy and the problems that such shortages present for monetary policy.
Journal Article
Are some prices in the CPI more forward looking than others? We think so
Some of the items that make up the Consumer Price Index change prices frequently, while others are slow to change. We explore whether these two sets of prices - sticky and flexible - provide insight on different aspects of the inflation process. We find that sticky prices appear to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a frequent basis, while flexible prices respond more powerfully to economic conditions?economic slack. Importantly, our sticky-price measure seems to contain a component of inflation expectations, and that component may ...
Journal Article
Can conventional theory explain the unconventional recovery?
An argument that the sluggishness of the current economic recovery reflects a permanent, structural change in the economy that may not be easily addressed using the standard monetary/fiscal incentives called for in the conventional view of business cycles, and that structural adjustment is a critical component of all economic fluctuations.
Journal Article
Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation
An analysis concluding that inflation measures based on median price changes are a better indicator than measures based on mean price changes.