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Working Paper
Recovering risk aversion from options
Cross-sections of option prices embed the risk-neutral probability densities functions (PDFs) for the future values of the underlying asset. Theory suggests that risk-neutral PDFs differ from market expectations due to risk premia. Using a utility function to adjust the risk-neutral PDF to produce subjective PDFs, we can obtain measures of the risk aversion implied in option prices. Using FTSE 100 and S&P 500 options, and both power and exponential utility functions, we show that subjective PDFs accurately forecast the distribution of realizations, while risk-neutral PDFs do not. The ...
Working Paper
Bank procyclicality, credit crunches, and asymmetric monetary policy effects: a unifying model
Much concern has recently been expressed that both large, procyclical changes in bank assets and "credit crunches" caused by bank reluctance to expand loans during recessions contribute to economic instability. These effects are difficult to explain using the standard textbook model of deposit expansion in which deposits are constrained only by reserve requirements. However, these effects follow easily if the model is expanded to include a second, capital constraint.
Working Paper
U.S. corporate and bank insolvency regimes: an economic comparison and evaluation
In the U.S., the insolvency resolution of most corporations is governed by the federal bankruptcy code and is administered by special bankruptcy courts. Most large corporate bankruptcies are resolved under Chapter 11 reorganization proceedings. However, commercial bank insolvencies are governed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Act and are administered by the FDIC. These two resolution processes--corporate bankruptcy and bank receiverships--differ in a number of significant ways, including the type of proceeding (judicial versus administrative); the rights of managers, stockholders and ...
Working Paper
The implied volatility of U.S. interest rates: evidence from callable U. S. Treasuries
The prices for callable U.S. Treasury securities provide the sole source of evidence concerning the implied volatility of interest rates over the extended 1926-1994 period. This paper uses the prices of callable as well as non-callable Treasury instruments to estimate implied interest rate volatilities for the past sixty years, and, for the more recent 1989-1994 period, the cross-sectional term structures of implied interest rate volatility. We utilize these estimates to perform cross-sectional richness/cheapness analysis across callable Treasuries. Inter alia, we develop the optimal call ...
Working Paper
Callable U.S. Treasury bonds: optimal calls, anomalies, and implied volatilities
Previous studies on interest rate derivatives have been limited by the relatively short history of most traded derivative securities. The prices for callable U.S. Treasury securities, available for the period 1926?95, provide the sole source of evidence concerning the implied volatility of interest rates over this extended period. Using the prices of callable, as well as non-callable, Treasury instruments, this paper estimates implied interest rate volatilities for the past seventy years. Our technique for estimating implied volatilities enables us to address two important issues concerning ...
Working Paper
Testing the stability of implied probability density functions
Implied probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from cross-sections of observed options prices are gaining increasing attention amongst academics and practitioners. However, to date little attention has been paid to the robustness of these estimates or to the confidence users can place in the summary statistics, for example skewness or the 99th percentile, derived from fitted PDFs. This paper begins to address these questions by examining the absolute and relative robustness of two of the most common methods for estimating implied smile methods. The changes resulting from randomly ...
Working Paper
Derivatives and systemic risk: netting, collateral, and closeout
In the U.S., as in most countries with well-developed securities markets, derivative securities enjoy special protections under insolvency resolution laws. Most creditors are ?stayed? from enforcing their rights while a firm is in bankruptcy. However, many derivatives contracts are exempt from these stays. Furthermore, derivatives enjoy netting and close-out, or termination, privileges which are not always available to most other creditors. The primary argument used to motivate passage of legislation granting these extraordinary protections is that derivatives markets are a major source of ...
Journal Article
Bankruptcy law and large complex financial organizations: a primer
Large complex financial organization (LCFOs) are exposed to multiple problems when they become insolvent. They operate in countries with different approaches to bankruptcy and, within the U.S., multiple insolvency administrators. The special financial instruments that comprise a substantial portion of LCFO assets are exempted from the usual "time out" that permits the orderly resolution of creditor claims. This situation is complicated by the opacity of LCFIs' positions, which may make them difficult to sell or unwind in times of financial crisis. This article discusses these issues and their ...
Journal Article
Policy essay - risk-based bank capital: issues and solutions
Market risk has become an integral consideration in bank business. Derivatives are increasingly used as a means of risk management, and bank involvement in derivatives trading represents a new, different, and very important line of business. Existing regulations for the determination of bank capital, based on the quality of assets held, are not appropriate for trading portfolio assets where exposure to market risk factors is of primary importance. ; This essay discusses three major proposals for dealing with market risk in determining banks' risk-based capital. The standard and internal model ...