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Newsletter
Economic outlook symposium: summary of 2013 results and 2014 forecasts
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at its fastest pace in three years in 2014, with inflation remaining low and the unemployment rate edging down.
Newsletter
Economy to Move Down the Road at a Solid Pace in 2014 and Accelerate Slightly in 2015
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to be solid this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2015. Inflation is expected to increase in 2014 and remain flat in 2015. The unemployment rate is anticipated to move lower but remain near 6% through the end of 2015. Light vehicle sales are predicted to improve moderately in 2014 and 2015.
Journal Article
Measuring Fiscal Impetus: The Great Recession in Historical Context
The authors use a measure of fiscal impetus to examine how fiscal policy has behaved during business cycles in the past, how it responded to the most recent recession, and how it is likely to evolve over the next several years. They find that policy was more expansionary than average during the 2007 recession and has been significantly more contractionary than average during the recovery. By the end of 2012, fiscal impetus was below its historical business-cycle average and it is forecast to remain depressed well into the future.
Newsletter
Economy to Roll Along at a Solid Pace in 2015 and Accelerate Slightly in 2016
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation?s economic growth is forecasted to be near its long-term average this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2016. Inflation is expected to decrease in 2015 but rebound in 2016. The unemployment rate is anticipated to move lower through the end of 2016, reaching 5 percent by then. Light vehicle sales are predicted to improve moderately in 2015 and 2016.
Newsletter
Economic Outlook Symposium: Summary of 2014 Results and 2015 Forecasts
According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace slightly above average in 2015, with inflation ticking lower and the unemployment rate edging down.
Journal Article
The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: Quantifying the Seventh District’s Beige Book Report
In this article, the authors describe a new survey methodology used by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in constructing the Seventh District?s Beige Book report called the Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC). The design of the survey allows the authors to create a new set of quantitative indexes that track economic activity in real time.