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What Do Financial Markets Say about Future Inflation?
Though U.S. inflation has been unexpectedly high in the past year, inflation swap data indicate that longer-term inflation expectations remain relatively steady.
Journal Article
State Government Expenditures by Party Affiliation
While political divisions have widened considerably in the U.S., dominant political leanings do not appear to correlate with state government expenditures.
Why the Same Inflation Target May Not Fit All Countries
The central banks of many advanced economies have adopted an inflation target at around 2%. But should they use the same target?
FOMC Actions and Recent Movements in Five-Year Inflation Expectations
Though the five-year breakeven inflation rate is still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, recent FOMC actions appear to be moderating inflation expectations.
Journal Article
Decomposing the Low PCE Inflation Rate
The current low PCE inflation rate can largely be attributed to energy, health care, and housing.
COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
St. Louis Fed Research Associates Discuss Work and Experiences
RAs help the St. Louis Fed’s staff of economists investigate topics ranging from productivity to unemployment.
Journal Article
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics
A large literature has argued that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices than to decreases in oil prices. Moreover, some of this literature has found heterogeneous asymmetry in gas price responses across cities. Here, we reconsider the causes of heterogeneous asymmetric pass-through. Consistent with the previous literature, we find heterogeneity in the magnitudes of asymmetric pass-through across cities. We also find a large number of cities that exhibit no asymmetries. We then examine whether heterogeneous asymmetry results from city-level differences in (i) the ...
More Households Face Food Scarcity during COVID-19
More U.S. households are reporting that they sometimes or often do not have enough food, according to a new Census survey.
Journal Article
On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts
Inflation expectations constitute important components of macroeconomic models and monetary policy rules. We investigate the relative performance of consumer, professional, market-based, and model-based inflation forecasts. Consistent with the previous literature, professional forecasts most accurately predict one-year-ahead year-over-year inflation. Both consumers and professionals overestimate inflation over their respective sample periods. Market-based forecasts as measured by the swap market breakeven inflation rates significantly overestimate actual inflation; Treasury ...