Working Paper
The contributions of domestic and external factors to Latin American devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach
Kamin, Steven B.; Babson, Oliver D. (1999)
In this paper we develop a modified "early warning system" (EWS) approach to identifying the roles of domestic and external factors in Latin America's crises. Several probit models of balance-of-payments crises, based on different identified sets of crisis dates, were estimated for six Latin American countries. These models were then used to identify the separate contributions to the probabilities of crisis of domestic and external variables. Our basic finding is that, when the effect of adverse external shocks is removed from the simulated probabilities of devaluation in Latin America, the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 645

Working Paper
Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?
Babson, Oliver D.; Fernald, John G. (1999)
China's strong growth in the midst of the Asian crisis is striking. We explore features of China's financial system that helped insulate it from the crisis, and then try to assess whether China has avoided crisis or simply deferred it. We argue that regardless of whether the Asian crisis resulted from weak fundamentals or from "country runs" by investors, it is not surprising that China has survived so far. In a market-oriented system, pressures generally force rapid adjustment when institutions are, or are perceived to be, insolvent; these mechanisms do not operate fully in China. In ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 633