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Frequency Dependence in a Real-Time Monetary Policy Rule
We estimate a monetary policy rule for the US allowing for possible frequency dependence?i.e., allowing the central bank to respond differently to more persistent innovations than to more transitory innovations, in both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Our estimation method uses real-time data in these rates?as did the FOMC?and requires no a priori assumptions on the pattern of frequency dependence or on the nature of the processes generating either the data or the natural rate of unemployment. Unlike other approaches, our estimation method allows for possible feedback in the ...
Persistence Dependence in Empirical Relations: The Velocity of Money
Standard theory predicts persistence dependence in numerous economic relationships. (For example, persistence dependence is precisely the kind of nonlinear relationship posited in the Permanent Income Hypothesis; persistence dependence is the inverse of ?frequency dependence? in a relationship.) Until recently, however, it was challenging to achieve credible inference about persistence dependence in an economic relationship using available methods. However, recently developed econometric tools (Ashley and Verbrugge, 2009a) allow one to elegantly quantify the variation in a time-series ...