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Journal Article
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods.The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the ...
Discussion Paper
The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear
The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the country that took relatively large hits to their unemployment rate and employment-population ratio during the pandemic have had lower inflation, on average, than areas that took relatively small hits. And, just as prior to the pandemic, the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment continues to be statistically stronger for the prices of services than of goods. The Phillips curve appears to have held up well at the regional level during the COVID-19 era. Areas of the ...
Working Paper
Partially Disaggregated Household-level Debt Service Ratios: Construction and Validation
Currently published data series on the United States household debt service ratio are constructed from aggregate household debt data provided by lenders and estimates of the average interest rate and loan terms of a range of credit products. The approach used to calculate those debt service ratios could be prone to missing changes in loan terms. Better measurement of this important indicator of financial health can help policymakers anticipate and react to crises in household finance. We develop and estimate debt service ratio measures based on individual-level debt payments data obtained ...