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Discussion Paper
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— September 2023
Del Negro, Marco; Gundam, Pranay; Lee, Donggyu; Nallamotu, Ramya; Pacula, Brian
(2023-09-22)
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20230922
Working Paper
Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
Clark, Todd E.; Carriero, Andrea; Marcellino, Massimiliano
(2020-01-16)
A rapidly growing body of research has examined tail risks in macroeconomic outcomes. Most of this work has focused on the risks of significant declines in GDP, and has relied on quantile regression methods to estimate tail risks. In this paper we examine the ability of Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to capture tail risks in macroeconomic forecast distributions and outcomes. We consider both a conventional stochastic volatility specification and a specification featuring a common volatility factor that is a function of past financial conditions. Even though the conditional ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-02
Working Paper
Disentangling rent index differences: data, methods, and scope
Adams, Brian; Verbrugge, Randal J.; Loewenstein, Lara; Montag, Hugh
(2023-09-28)
Rent measurement determines 32 percent of the CPI. Accurate rent measurement is therefore essential for accurate inflation measurement, but the CPI rent index often differs from alternative measures of rent inflation. Using repeat-rent inflation measures created from CPI microdata, we show that this discrepancy is largely explained by differences in rent growth for new tenants relative to all tenants. New-tenant rent inflation provides information about future all-tenant rent inflation, but the use of new-tenant rents is contraindicated in a cost-of-living index such as the CPI. Nevertheless, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-38R
Report
Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging
Potter, Simon M.; Koop, Gary
(2003-03-01)
This paper considers the problem of forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian model averaging. Practical methods for implementing Bayesian model averaging with factor models are described. These methods involve algorithms that simulate from the space defined by all possible models. We explain how these simulation algorithms can also be used to select the model with the highest marginal likelihood (or highest value of an information criterion) in an efficient manner. We apply these methods to the problem of forecasting GDP and inflation using quarterly U.S. data on 162 time ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 163
Discussion Paper
How Easy Is It to Forecast Commodity Prices?
Groen, Jan J. J.; Pesenti, Paolo
(2011-06-27)
Over the last decade, unprecedented spikes and drops in commodity prices have been a recurrent source of concern to both policymakers and the general public. Given all the recent attention, have economists and analysts made any progress in their ability to predict movements in commodity prices? In this post, we find there is no easy answer. We consider different strategies to forecast near-term commodity price inflation, but find that no particular approach is systematically more accurate and robust. Additionally, the results warn against interpreting current forecasts of commodity prices ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20110627
Working Paper
Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability
Chudik, Alexander; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad; Pesaran, M. Hashem
(2024-08-05)
This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigates the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 394
Working Paper
Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures
Verbrugge, Randal; Zaman, Saeed
(2022-08-03)
Both theory and extant empirical evidence suggest that the cross-sectional asymmetry across disaggregated price indexes might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does it mainly come from their implicit signaling of asymmetry (when included alongside headline PCE)? We address this question by augmenting a “hard to beat” benchmark inflation forecasting model of headline PCE price inflation ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-23
Working Paper
How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?
Neely, Christopher J.
(2022-04-15)
The weight of the evidence indicates that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks had persistent effects on yields. To make this point, this paper illustrates that the most influential SVAR model of UMP effects, which implies transient effects, exhibits structural instability, sensitivity to specification and single observations that render the conclusions unreliable. Restricted SVAR models that limit asset return predictability are more stable and imply that UMP shocks were persistent. This conclusion is consistent with evidence from micro studies, surveys of professional forecasters, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2014-004
How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
Atkinson, Tyler; Richter, Alexander W.
(2023-10-19)
A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.
Dallas Fed Economics
Working Paper
Variable Selection and Forecasting in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Structural Breaks
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Sharifvaghefi, Mahrad
(2020-08-19)
This paper is concerned with the problem of variable selection and forecasting in the presence of parameter instability. There are a number of approaches proposed for forecasting in the presence of breaks, including the use of rolling windows or exponential down-weighting. However, these studies start with a given model specification and do not consider the problem of variable selection. It is clear that, in the absence of breaks, researchers should weigh the observations equally at both the variable selection and forecasting stages. In this study, we investigate whether or not we should use ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 394
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