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Keywords:climate change 

A Microprudential Perspective on the Financial Risks of Climate Change

Remarks at the 2020 Climate Risk Symposium, Global Association of Risk Professionals (delivered via videoconference).

The Basel Committee’s Initiatives on Climate-Related Financial Risks

Remarks on the panel "New regulatory and policy landscape for sustainable finance," 2020 IIF Annual Membership Meeting (delivered via videoconference).

Discussion Paper
Climate Change and Consumer Finance: A Very Brief Literature Review

Extant research shows that climate change can impose significant costs on consumers’ wealth and finances. Both sea-level rise and flooding from hurricane events led to high price declines and thus wealth loss for homes in coastal areas or in disaster-struck areas, with effects lingering for a number of years in some cases. In terms of consumer finance, while the average consumer is not always significantly negatively affected by a disaster, the vulnerable groups (those with low credit scores and who are low income) can be severely affected, experiencing higher rates of delinquencies and ...
Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers , Paper 21-04

Climate Risk and the Fed: Preparing for an Uncertain Certainty

Virtual Presentation at Peterson Institute for International Economics Virtual Webinar, Washington, D.C., by Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Journal Article
Climate Risk and the Fed: Preparing for an Uncertain Certainty

While the severity and scope of a changing climate remains unclear, the consensus is that it poses a significant risk to the global economy and financial system. As monetary policymakers, the Fed’s job is to navigate this uncertainty by anticipating the potential changes and understanding their implications.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 17 , Pages 08

Working Paper
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-02

Journal Article
Freshwater Scarcity Risk Rises in the U.S. and Eighth District

Although fresh water was once considered abundant, growing scarcity issues are putting pressure on parts of the U.S.—including in the Fed’s Eighth District.
The Regional Economist

Journal Article
Climate Change Costs Rise as Interest Rates Fall

Climate change—including higher temperatures and more extreme weather—is already causing economic damage and is projected to have further long-lasting effects. To properly assess the potential future economic losses from climate change, they must be discounted to produce comparable values in today’s dollars. The discount rates required for this assessment are influenced by the long-run equilibrium real interest rate, which has declined notably since the 1990s. Accounting for a persistently lower real rate increases the present discounted future costs of climate change, which is relevant ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 28 , Pages 05

Working Paper
The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters

We use county panel data to study the dynamic responses of local economies after naturaldisasters in the U.S. Specifically, we estimate disaster impulse response functions for personalincome per capita and a broad range of other economic outcomes, using a panel version of thelocal projections estimator. In contrast to some recent cross-country studies, we find thatdisasters increase total and per capita personal income over the longer-run (as of 8 years out).The effect is driven initially largely by a temporary employment boost and in the longer run byan increase in average weekly wages. We ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-34

Climate Change and Risk Management in Bank Supervision

Remarks at Risks, Opportunities, and Investment in the Era of Climate Change, Harvard Business School, Boston, Massachusetts.


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