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AI Optimism and Uncertainty: What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us Post-ChatGPT?
An analysis of earnings calls shows that America’s corporate leaders are talking much more about AI. It also reveals an increase in perceived risk in this new technology.
Texas firms use AI with little employment impact so far
Learning how businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) helps policymakers understand changing economic conditions, particularly involving employment and productivity.
Newsletter
AI and the Future of Work: Opportunity or Threat?
This article describes how AI works and how it could impact industries, create new opportunities, and transform job tasks across skill levels.
Discussion Paper
Exposure to Generative AI and Expectations About Inequality
With the rise of generative AI (genAI) tools such as ChatGPT, many worry about the tools’ potential displacement effects in the labor market and the implications for income inequality. In supplemental questions to the February 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we asked a representative sample of U.S. residents about their experience with genAI tools. We find that relatively few people have used genAI, but that those who have used it have a bleaker outlook on its impacts on jobs and future inequality.
Journal Article
Artificial Intelligence and Inflation Forecasts
We explore the ability of large language models (LLMs) to produce in-sample conditional inflation forecasts during the 2019–23 period. We use a leading LLM (Google AI’s PaLM) to produce distributions of conditional forecasts at different horizons and compare these forecasts to those of a leading source, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We find that LLM forecasts generate lower mean-squared errors overall in most years and at almost all horizons. LLM forecasts exhibit slower reversion to the 2 percent inflation anchor.
Journal Article
The Future of U.S. Productivity: Cautious Optimism amid Uncertainty
Recent productivity growth likely reflects both cyclical and structural factors, including remote work and AI.
AI Hype or Reality? Shifts in Corporate Investment after ChatGPT
An analysis of earnings calls shows a sharp rise in AI-related chatter among U.S. corporate executives. But this increase doesn’t appear to be matched by a similar rise in capital and R&D spending.
Speech
Risk Management in a Complex and Interconnected World
Keynote Remarks at the XLoD Global – New York Conference, New York City.
Journal Article
The Labor Market Impact of Digital Technologies
We investigate the impact of digital technology on employment patterns in Korea, where firms have rapidly adopted digital technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and cloud computing. By exploiting regional variations in technology exposure, we find significant negative effects on female workers, particularly those in non-IT (information technology) services. This contrasts with previous technological disruptions, such as the IT revolution and robotization, which primarily affected male workers in manufacturing. The negative employment effect of AI did not differ across ...