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Keywords:Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index 

Journal Article
Through a glass, darkly: how data revisions complicate monetary policy

Economic Letter , Volume 1

Journal Article
Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers

A familiar old saw about the conduct of monetary policy is that it's like trying to drive a car while looking only in the rearview mirror. The idea is that policymakers are trying to steer a course that will keep the economy close to full employment with low, stable inflation, while their only knowledge of the road ahead is based on data about the past. ; As if this situation weren't challenging enough, the rearview mirror sometimes gives a distorted reflection, in the sense that the data policymakers see at any one point in time are often later revised. This Economic Letter discusses a ...
FRBSF Economic Letter

Newsletter
Trends in consumer sentiment and spending

In 2008, personal consumption expenditures represented 70% of gross domestic product, or total spending on final goods and services, according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data. This article analyzes consumer sentiment and spending data to uncover differences across income and education level groups.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Apr

Journal Article
A comparison of the CPI and the PCE price index

In the United States, there are two broad indexes of consumer prices: the consumer price index, or CPI, and the chain price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCEPI. Because the indexes are similar in many respects, the inflation rates measured with them often move in parallel. There are, however, some important differences, which, at times, can lead to large gaps between CPI and PCEPI inflation rates. In 1998, for example, the CPI rose 1.5 percent, while the PCEPI increased just 0.7 percent. The discrepancy was even larger excluding food and energy prices: the core CPI grew 2.4 ...
Economic Review , Volume 84 , Issue Q III , Pages 15-29

Speech
Regional and national economic conditions

Remarks before the Morris County Chamber of Commerce, Florham Park, New Jersey.
Speech , Paper 87

Journal Article
A personal consumption tax: can it break the capital formation deadlock?

Business Review , Issue Jan/Feb , Pages 3-9

Discussion Paper
Excluding items from personal consumption expenditures inflation

Core inflation measures constructed by excluding particularly volatile items from the price index have a long history. The most common such measures are indexes excluding the prices of food and energy items. This paper attempts to shed some statistical light on the impact of excluding certain items from the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. In particular, I am interested in the trade-off between reducing shortrun volatility (relative to the volatility of the headline index) and possibly distorting the measurement of inflation over longer horizons. Some of the questions this ...
Staff Papers , Issue Jun

Speech
Of moose and men (with no reference to Steinbeck)

Remarks before the National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Texas, September 12, 2011 ; "It is incumbent on the Fed and other bank regulators to reduce the regulatory burdens that are inhibiting indeed, overwhelming community bankers whose business it is to lend to creditworthy small businesses."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 94

Journal Article
Predicting consumption: a lesson in real-time data

National Economic Trends , Issue Nov

Working Paper
Trimmed mean PCE inflation

Research over the past decade has led to improved measures of core inflation in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. This paper discusses the application of some of the insights and techniques of that line of research to the Federal Reserve Bard of Governors? preferred inflation gauge, the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The result is a new measure of core PCE inflation?the trimmed mean PCE?and a somewhat different characterization of the economy?s recent inflation experience. ; Compared to the story told by the usual ?excluding food and energy? measure, the trimmed mean ...
Working Papers , Paper 0506

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