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Working Paper
Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Since the beginning of 2018, the United States has undertaken unprecedented tariff increases, with one goal of these actions being to boost the manufacturing sector. In this paper, we estimate the effect of the tariffs---including retaliatory tariffs by U.S. trading partners---on manufacturing employment, output, and producer prices. A key feature of our analysis is accounting for the multiple ways that tariffs might affect the manufacturing sector, including providing protection for domestic industries, raising costs for imported inputs, and harming competitiveness in overseas markets due ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2019-086

Journal Article
As Manufacturing Weakens, Consumers Pull Back

The United States has faced two recent downturns in manufacturing: one from 2014 to 2015 and one that has been ongoing since 2018. We examine consumption growth at the state level to see how consumers have responded to the current downturn relative to the last. We find that during the current downturn, changes in consumption growth at the state level have been negatively correlated with the state?s share of workers in manufacturing. In contrast, we find the opposite relationship during the 2014?15 downturn.
Economic Bulletin

Working Paper
The Energy Boom and Manufacturing in the United States

This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturers to changes in competitiveness brought about by movements in the price of natural gas. I estimate the response of various measures of manufacturing activity using panel regression methods across roughly 80 industries that allow each industry's response to vary with its energy intensity. These estimates suggest that the fall in the price of natural gas since 2006 is associated with a 2 to 3 percent increase in activity for the entire manufacturing sector, with much larger effects of 30 percent or more for the most energy intensive ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1108

Globally Competitive Texas Exports Sensitive to U.S. Trade Policy

Texas, the nation’s largest exporting state, enjoys a strong position in world trade. The state continues to see exports climb, and it exhibits a manufacturing edge in energy-related products and intermediate goods based on an index of comparative advantage.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Nebraska manufacturing and housing press onward

Nebraska Economist

Investment in Mexico Falls Despite Rise in Remittances

Mexico has grown more dependent on foreign direct investment and remittances after total investment declined sharply for a fourth consecutive year in 2020.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization : Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments

This paper examines the effect of a change in U.S. trade policy on the domestic investment of U.S. manufacturers. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that industries more exposed to reductions in import tariff uncertainty exhibit relative declines in investment after the change in trade policy. Within industries, we find that this relationship is concentrated among establishments with low initial levels of labor productivity, capital intensity and skill intensity. For plants with high initial levels of skill intensity, we find that increased exposure is ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-120

Labor Economy at Greater Risk in Texas than U.S. During COVID-19 Crisis

The coronavirus crisis could more adversely affect the Texas economy than the U.S. economy due to the state’s relatively large share of at-risk jobs, a review of data suggests.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Introducing the Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing survey

To assess the health of the economy, it sometimes helps to look beyond the numbers and listen directly to business managers. That is why the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and a handful of other regional Reserve Banks and private firms such as the Institute for Supply Management conduct a variety of monthly surveys of business activity. Such qualitative surveys offer the advantage of providing timelier insight into economic activity prior to the official monthly employment and quarterly gross domestic product data releases as well as insight into regional and local trends. And now ...
Business Review , Issue Q3 , Pages 15-22

Journal Article
The Drag of Energy and Manufacturing on Productivity Growth

Willem Van Zandweghe finds a decline in manufacturing and mining activity has slowed overall productivity growth.
Macro Bulletin


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