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Working Paper
Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment

We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with two key ingredients: (a) Consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances; (b) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1310

Working Paper
Cash flows and discount rates, industry and country effects, and co-movement in stock returns

This paper examines the relative importance of global, country-specific, and industry-specific factors in both the cash flow and discount rate components of equity returns between 1995 and 2003. Our framework draws upon previously separate literatures on country versus industry effects and (forward-looking) cash flow versus discount rate components of equity return innovations. We apply the Campbell (1991) decomposition for industry-by-country, all-country, global industry, and world market index returns so we can produce a richer characterization of same-industry and same-country effects in ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 818

A perspective on China

"In contemplating China, we need to look past carefully crafted images and deepen our understanding of her national interest. Failure to do so will be perilous." ; Remarks to a Working Dinner Sponsored by the Progress & Freedom Foundation, Aspen, Colorado, August 18, 2008.
Speeches and Essays , Paper 25

Working Paper
Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective

In this paper, I explore the changes in international business cycles with quarterly data for the eight largest advanced economies (U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, and Canada) since the 1960s. Using a time-varying parameter model with stochastic volatility for real GDP growth and inflation allows their dynamics to change over time, approximating nonlinearities in the data that otherwise would not be adequately accounted for with linear models (Granger et al. (1991), Granger (2008)). With that empirical model, I document a period of declining macro volatility since the 1980s, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 348

Journal Article
On the record: delving more deeply into globalization

Dallas Fed Vice President Mark A. Wynne, director of the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, discusses the creation of a new research center dedicated to improving policymaking in today's more-open economy.
Southwest Economy , Issue Jan , Pages 8-9

A new perspective on policy

2006 Streich Family Lectureship on Free Enterprise, Midwestern State University, Wichita Falls, Texas, April 4, 2006 ; "Globalization is almost surely part of the explanation of the decline in inflation and output volatility that we've seen in many countries in recent years."
Speeches and Essays , Paper 76

Discussion Paper
Globalization and imbalances in historical perspective

Global imbalances associated with the U.S. current account deficit have given rise to speculation about the nature of the impending adjustment: Will it be smooth and gradual, or will it be sudden and costly? This paper summarizes the two views and then considers three historical periods with similar pressures--an earlier era of globalization from 1870 to 1914, the interwar gold standard, and Bretton Woods. A comparison of the periods and their outcomes suggests current global imbalances might resolve themselves quietly.
Policy Discussion Papers , Issue Jan

Coping with globalization's impact on monetary policy

Remarks for the National Association for Business Economics Panel Discussion at the 2006 Allied Social Science Associations Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, January 6, 2006 ; "By spurring productivity and fomenting tectonic economic changes, globalization has acted as a tailwind for the Fed's--and other central banks'--efforts to hold down inflation. I believe the Federal Reserve has been able to contain inflation with faster growth than would have been possible in the absence of globalization. In short, globalization has made the Fed's job easier over the past few years">
Speeches and Essays , Paper 82

Working Paper
Precautionary demand for foreign assets in sudden stop economies: an assessment of the new mercantilism

Financial globalization had a rocky start in emerging economies hit by Sudden Stops. Foreign reserves have grown very rapidly since then, as if those countries were practicing a New Mercantilism that views foreign reserves as a war-chest for defense against Sudden Stops. This paper conducts a quantitative assessment of this argument using a stochastic intertemporal equilibrium framework in which precautionary foreign asset demand is driven by output variability, financial globalization, and Sudden Stop risk. In this framework, credit constraints produce endogenous Sudden Stops. We find that ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 911



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Fisher, Richard W. 21 items

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