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Financial Stress and Equilibrium Dynamics in Money Markets
Interest rate spreads are widely-used indicators of funding pressures and market functioning in money markets. Using weekly data from 2002 to 2015, we analyze money market dynamics in a long-run equilibrium framework where commonly-monitored spreads serve as error correction terms. We find strong evidence for nonlinearities with respect to levels of the spreads. We provide point and interval estimates for spread thresholds that quantify funding pressure points from a long-run perspective. Our results indicate significant asymmetry in the adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. We show that ...
Regular Variation of Popular GARCH Processes Allowing for Distributional Asymmetry
Linear GARCH(1,1) and threshold GARCH(1,1) processes are established as regularly varying, meaning their heavy tails are Pareto like, under conditions that allow the innovations from the, respective, processes to be skewed. Skewness is considered a stylized fact for many financial returns assumed to follow GARCH-type processes. The result in this note aids in establishing the asymptotic properties of certain GARCH estimators proposed in the literature.