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Journal Article
A Taxing Question for the Fed

The Fed has long emphasized uncertainty in assessing the economic effects of tax cuts. Both history and theory might help explain why
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 4-7

Working Paper
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach

Since November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has regularly published participants? qualitative assessments of the uncertainty attending their individual forecasts of real activity and inflation, expressed relative to that seen on average in the past. The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. This paper documents how these benchmarks are constructed and discusses some of their properties. We draw several ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-020

Moving toward 'normal' U.S. monetary policy: remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia

Remarks at the Joint Bank Indonesia-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Central Banking Forum, Nusa Dua, Indonesia.
Speech , Paper 296

Using the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book to Track Economic Activity

This article provides the public a first look at a new set of indexes constructed from the Chicago Fed?s Beige Book survey, and describes their ability to track economic activity.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Estimating the Monetary Policy Rule Perceived by Forecasters

Brent Bundick examines whether the FOMC?s implicit monetary policy rule, as perceived by professional forecasters, changed when the federal funds rate reached its effective lower bound. The article is summarized in The Macro Bulletin.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 33-49

Working Paper
How Does the Fed Adjust its Securities Holdings and Who is Affected?

The Federal Open Market Committee indicated in its September 2017 post-meeting statement that it will initiate in October a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce its securities holdings. This action will put in place a policy of reinvesting and redeeming portions of the principal payments received by the Federal Reserve from its holdings of Treasury and agency securities. How are these adjustments to the Federal Reserve?s securities holdings transacted and who is affected? This paper provides a primer regarding how the Federal Reserve accounts for these securities ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-099

Journal Article
Waiting for Inflation

When is inflation too low?
Econ Focus , Issue 3Q , Pages 3-5

Working Paper

This paper provides a detailed examination of a new set of fiscal forecasts for the U.S. assembled by Croushore and van Norden (2017) from FOMC briefing books. The data are of particular interest because (1) they afford a look at fiscal forecasts over six complete business cycles and several fiscal policy regimes, covering both peacetime and several wars, (2) the forecasts were precisely those presented to monetary policymakers, (3) they include frequently updated estimates of both actual and cyclically adjusted deficits, (4) unlike most other U.S. fiscal forecasts, they were neither partisan ...
Working Papers , Paper 17-13

Journal Article
Does the Recent Decline in Household Longer-Term Inflation Expectations Signal a Loss of Confidence in the FOMC?

Households have lowered their longer-term inflation outlooks, but they appear confident in the FOMC?s ability to achieve stable prices.
Macro Bulletin

Observations on implementing monetary policy in an ample-reserves regime: remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City

Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City.
Speech , Paper 318


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