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Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon
(2022-05-12)
This paper develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent–life cycle model with a fully integrated epidemiological model in which economic decisions affect the spread of COVID-19 and vice versa. The calibrated model is used to study the distributional consequences and effectiveness of mitigation policies such as a stay-at-home subsidy and a stay-at-home order. First, the stay-at-home subsidy is preferred because it reduces deaths by more and output by less, leading to a larger average welfare gain that benefits all individuals. Second, Pareto-improving mitigation policies can reduce deaths by ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers
, Paper 400
Journal Article
So, Why Didn’t the 2009 Recovery Act Improve the Nation’s Highways and Bridges?
Dupor, Bill
(2017)
Although the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act) provided nearly $28 billion to state governments for improving U.S. highways, the highway system saw no significant improvement. For example, relative to the years before the act, the number of structurally deficient or functionally obsolete bridges was nearly unchanged, the number of workers on highway and bridge construction did not significantly increase, and the annual value of construction put in place for public highways barely budged. The author shows that as states spent Recovery Act highway grants, many ...
Review
, Volume 99
, Issue 2
, Pages 169-182
Working Paper
The Politics of Flat Taxes
Dolmas, Jim; Carroll, Daniel R.; Young, Eric R.
(2019-09-25)
We study the political determination of flat tax systems using a workhorse macroeconomic model of inequality. There is significant variation in preferred tax policy across the wealth and income distribution. The majority voting outcome features (i) zero labor income taxation, (ii) simultaneous use of capital income and consumption taxation, and (iii) essentially zero transfers. This policy is supported by a coalition of low- and middle-wealth households. Zero labor income taxation is supported by households with below average wealth, while the middle-wealth households prefer to keep the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 14-42R2
Working Paper
Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian
(2022-05-23)
A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-017
Working Paper
Use it or Lose it: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation
Kambourov, Gueorgui; Chen, Daphne; Guvenen, Fatih; Kuruscu, Burhanettin; Ocampo, Sergio
(2019-09-24)
How does wealth taxation differ from capital income taxation? When the return on investment is equal across individuals, a well-known result is that the two tax systems are equivalent. Motivated by recent empirical evidence documenting persistent heterogeneity in rates of return across individuals, we revisit this question. With such heterogeneity, the two tax systems have opposite implications for both efficiency and inequality. Under capital income taxation, entrepreneurs who are more productive, and therefore generate more income, pay higher taxes. Under wealth taxation, entrepreneurs who ...
Working Papers
, Paper 764
Working Paper
The 2009 recovery act: stimulus at the extensive and intensive labor margins
Mehkari, M. Saif; Dupor, Bill
(2014-08-11)
This paper studies the effect of government stimulus spending on a novel aspect of the labor market: the differential impact of spending on the total wage bill versus employment. We analyze the 2009 Recovery Act via instrumental variables using a new instrument, the spending done by federal agencies that were not instructed to target funds towards harder hit regions. We find a moderate positive effect on jobs created/saved (i.e., "the extensive margin") and also a significant increase in wage payments to workers whose job status was safe without Recovery Act funds (i.e., "the intensive ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2014-23
Working Paper
Consumption Heterogeneity by Occupation: Understanding the Impact of Occupation on Personal Consumption during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Cotton, Christopher D.; Garga, Vaishali; Rohan, Justin
(2020-12-01)
This paper exploits the variation in the unemployment rate of different occupations in the first part of the COVID-19 pandemic to analyze the response of consumption spending to unemployment risk. We find that earlier in the pandemic, higher unemployment risk did not reduce relative spending. However, as the pandemic proceeded, higher unemployment risk reduced relative spending. This pattern held across both essential and nonessential spending categories. We find that “high-risk” occupations had three common characteristics: lower ability to be performed from home, higher physical ...
Working Papers
, Paper 20-16
Working Paper
Are Unconditional Lump-sum Transfers a Good Idea?
Wen, Yi; Chen, Yunmin; Chien, YiLi; Yang, C. C.
(2021-06-14)
The role of unconditional lump-sum transfers in improving social welfare in heterogenous agent models has not been thoroughly understood in the literature. We adopt an analytically tractable Aiyagari-type model to study the distinctive role of unconditional lump-sum transfers in reducing consumption inequality due to ex-post uninsurable income risk. Our results show that in the presence of ex-post heterogeneity and in the absence of wealth inequality, unconditional lump-sum transfers are not a desirable tool for reducing consumption inequality—the Ramsey planner opts to rely solely on ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2021-002
Working Paper
Capital Gains Taxation and Investment Dynamics
Moon, Terry S.; Hong, Sungki
(2019-12-12)
This paper quantifies the long-run effects of reducing capital gains taxes on aggregate investment. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, which face discrete capital gains tax rates based on firm size. We calibrate our model by targeting micro moments and a difference-in-differences estimate of the capital stock response based on the institutional setting and policy reform in Korea. We find that the reform that reduced the capital gains tax rates for a subset of firms substantially increased investment in the short run, and capturing general equilibrium ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2018-31
Working Paper
Inflation as a Fiscal Limit
Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco
(2022-29-08)
Low and stable inflation requires an appropriate fiscal framework aimed at stabilizing government debt. Historically, trend inflation is critically influenced by actual or perceived changes to this framework, while cost-push shocks only account for short-lasting movements in inflation. Before the pandemic, a moderate level of fiscal inflation has counteracted deflationary pressures, helping the central bank to avoid deflation. The recent fiscal interventions in response to the Covid pandemic have altered the private sector’s beliefs about the fiscal framework, accelerating the recovery, but ...
Working Paper Series
, Paper WP 2022-37
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Financing constraints 1 items
Fiscal 1 items
Fiscal Limit 1 items
Fiscal Policy Relief Programs 1 items
Fiscal Sustainability 1 items
Fiscal Union 1 items
Fiscal consolidation 1 items
Fiscal uncertainty 1 items
Flat tax 1 items
Forecasting 1 items
GDP 1 items
Generational accounts 1 items
Global VARs 1 items
Government budget 1 items
Government transfers 1 items
Granularity 1 items
Great depression 1 items
Greek Depression 1 items
Health care 1 items
Heterogeneous discount factors 1 items
Household heterogeneity 1 items
Inflation (Finance) - United States 1 items
Inflation bias 1 items
Inflationary Finance 1 items
Information 1 items
Interest rate normalization 1 items
Intergenerational mobility 1 items
International Business Cycles 1 items
International Monetary Fund (IMF) 1 items
International Risk Sharing 1 items
International finance 1 items
International spillovers 1 items
Intertemporal substitution 1 items
Job destruction 1 items
K-12 education 1 items
Labor and demographic economics 1 items
Labor income 1 items
Labor market participation 1 items
Laffer curve 1 items
Liquidity 1 items
Liquidity trap 1 items
Local finance 1 items
Local labor markets 1 items
Long run 1 items
MLF 1 items
Markov chain 1 items
Measurement error 1 items
Medicaid Matching Grants 1 items
Medicare 1 items
Mercalli scale 1 items
Middle East 1 items
Migration 1 items
Mirrlees taxation 1 items
Model uncertainty 1 items
Monetary Union 1 items
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination 1 items
Monetary and fiscal policy interaction 1 items
Monetary and macroprudential policies 1 items
Monetary-fiscal coordination 1 items
Monetary-fiscal interactions 1 items
Monetary-fiscal policy mix 1 items
Monopsonistic competition 1 items
Monopsony 1 items
Multidimensional screening 1 items
Municipal Bonds 1 items
Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF) 1 items
Narrative approach 1 items
Narrative shocks 1 items
Natural Experiments 1 items
Natural disasters 1 items
New Keynesian 1 items
New Keynesian model 1 items
Nominal anchor 1 items
Nominal rigidity 1 items
North Africa 1 items
Occupational Choice 1 items
Optimal Inflation Target 1 items
Optimal income taxation 1 items
Paternalism 1 items
Paycheck Protection Program 1 items
Pension reform 1 items
Policy Delegation 1 items
Power law models 1 items
Preference heterogeneity 1 items
Present bias 1 items
Price level 1 items
Private insurance 1 items
Progressive tax and transfer system 1 items
Putty-clay capital 1 items
Quasi-geometry 1 items
R&D investment 1 items
Ramsey redistribution 1 items
Rate of return heterogeneity 1 items
Recession 1 items
Regional economies 1 items
Regional labor markets 1 items
Research and Development 1 items
Revenue 1 items
Revenue recycling 1 items
Ricardian equivalence 1 items
SPR 1 items
SVAR 1 items
Savings 1 items
School access 1 items
Sectoral Heterogeneity 1 items
Six-agent New Keynesian model 1 items
Social welfare functions 1 items
Sovereign Debt Default 1 items
Sovereign-bank diabolic loop 1 items
Spatial economics 1 items
Stabilization bias 1 items
State Government 1 items
State Revenue 1 items
Steady state 1 items
Stimulus Checks 1 items
Sunset provision 1 items
Sunspot Equilibria 1 items
Sustainable Plan 1 items
TGVAR 1 items
Tax extension 1 items
Tax on capital 1 items
Tax policy 1 items
Tax progressivity 1 items
Tax reform 1 items
Tax treaties 1 items
Temporary tax 1 items
Time consistency 1 items
Tobin effect 1 items
Transfer multiplier 1 items
Transfers 1 items
Transition dynamics 1 items
Transition path 1 items
U.S. Federal Tax Code 1 items
Uncertainty shocks 1 items
Unemployment risk 1 items
Uniform taxation 1 items
User cost of capital 1 items
VAT 1 items
Vocational Criteria 1 items
Volcker-Ravitch state fiscal crisis taskforce 1 items
Wages 1 items
Wealth inequality 1 items
Wealth taxation 1 items
Welfare evaluation 1 items
World Bank 1 items
accelerated depreciation 1 items
accuracy 1 items
active vs passive policies 1 items
adverse selection 1 items
aggregate productivity 1 items
approximations 1 items
asymmetric rules 1 items
balance 1 items
balanced budget 1 items
balances 1 items
bank capital 1 items
bank lending 1 items
bank liquidity 1 items
blockchains 1 items
bond risk premiums 1 items
budget 1 items
budget transparency 1 items
business cycle 1 items
capacity utilization 1 items
capital accumulation 1 items
capital income taxation 1 items
cash transfers 1 items
central bank independence 1 items
clustering 1 items
conditional Value-at-Risk 1 items
consumers 1 items
consumption expenditures 1 items
consumption-inflation correlation 1 items
coordination 1 items
covid19 1 items
crude oil 1 items
currency depreciation 1 items
debt crises 1 items
debt elasticity 1 items
debt maturity 1 items
decentralization 1 items
decomposition 1 items
deflation 1 items
demand uncertainty 1 items
demographic factors 1 items
determinacy 1 items
developing countries 1 items
disanchoring of inflation expectations 1 items
distortionary taxation 1 items
economic factors 1 items
efficiency 1 items
elderly 1 items
elections 1 items
endogenous growth 1 items
entrepreneurship 1 items
excess burden 1 items
factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) 1 items
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