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Series:Working Papers  Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 

Working Paper
On the use of market-based probabilities for policy decisions

This paper seeks to delimit conditions so that market-based probabilities provide all the information the policymaker needs to arrive at the best possible decision. Although there are practical considerations regarding how to derive market-based probabilities from financial prices, the author confines the discussion to a theoretical analysis that assumes no impediment to obtaining the market-based probabilities.
Working Papers , Paper 15-44

Working Paper
The elasticity of the unemployment rate with respect to benefits

If the Mortensen and Pissarides model with efficient bargaining is calibrated to replicate the fluctuations of unemployment over the business cycle, it implies a far too strong rise of the unemployment rate when unemployment benefits rise. This paper explores an alternative, right-to-manage bargaining scheme. This also generates the right degree of fluctuations of unemployment but at the same time implies a reasonable elasticity of unemployment with respect to benefits.
Working Papers , Paper 08-15

Working Paper
Labor supply and personal computer adoption.

The positive correlations found between computer use and human capital are often interpreted as evidence that the adoption of computers have raised the relative demand for skilled labor, the widely touted skill-biased technological change hypothesis. However, several models argue the skill- intensity of technology is endogenously determined by the relative supply of skilled labor. The authors use instruments for the supply of human capital coupled with a rich dataset on computer usage by businesses to show that the supply of human capital is an important determinant of the adoption of ...
Working Papers , Paper 06-10

Working Paper
Nonobviousness and the incentive to innovate: an economic analysis of intellectual property reform

U.S. patent law protects only inventions that are nontrivial advances of the prior art. The legal requirement is called nonobviousness. During the 1980s, the courts relaxed the nonobviousness requirement for all inventions, and a new form of intellectual property, with a weaker nonobviousness requirement, was created for semiconductor designs. Supporters of these changes argue that a less stringent nonobviousness requirement encourages private research and development (R&D) by increasing the probability that the resulting discoveries will be protected from imitation. This paper demonstrates ...
Working Papers , Paper 99-3

Working Paper
Insurance policies for monetary policy in the euro area

In this paper, the authors aim to design a monetary policy for the euro area that is robust to the high degree of model uncertainty at the start of monetary union and allows for learning about model probabilities. To this end, they compare and ultimately combine Bayesian and worst-case analysis using four reference models estimated with pre-EMU synthetic data. The authors start by computing the cost of insurance against model uncertainty, that is, the relative performance of worst-case or minimax policy versus Bayesian policy. While maximum insurance comes at moderate costs, they highlight ...
Working Papers , Paper 08-29

Working Paper
Small business lending: challenges and opportunities for community banks

The recent decline in small business lending (SBL) among U.S. community banks has spurred a growing debate about the future role of small banks in providing credit to U.S. small businesses. This paper adds to that discussion in three key ways. First, this research builds on existing evidence, suggesting that the decline in SBL by community banks is a trend that began at least a decade before the financial crisis. Second, the authors show that in the years preceding the crisis, small businesses increasingly turned to mortgage credit to fund their operations. Finally, this paper illustrates how ...
Working Papers , Paper 16-8

Working Paper
Implications of state-dependent pricing for dynamic macroeconomic models.

State-dependent pricing (SDP) models treat the timing of price changes as a profit-maximizing choice, symmetrically with other decisions of firms. Using quantitative general equilibrium models that incorporate a ?generalized (S,s) approach,? we investigate the implications of SDP for topics in two major areas of macroeconomic research: the early 1990s SDP literature and more recent work on persistence mechanisms. First, we show that state-dependent pricing leads to unusual macroeconomic dynamics, which occur because of the timing of price adjustments chosen by firms as in the earlier ...
Working Papers , Paper 05-2

Working Paper
The age of capital, the age of utilized capital, and tests of the embodiment hypothesis

Working Papers , Paper 86-4

Working Paper
Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, the authors find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly frequencies. In contrast, the main contribution is to show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency, which is rather robust and holds no matter whether the authors use contemporaneous (realized) or lagged oil prices in their regression. However, in the latter case ...
Working Papers , Paper 11-34

Working Paper
The impact of branch banking on pricing and service availability: theory and evidence

Working Papers , Paper 93-23




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