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Series:Macro Bulletin 

Journal Article
How much of the fall in inflation can be explained by energy and import prices?

A. Lee Smith finds that recent declines in inflation may be due to historically large movements in oil prices and the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain

The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit

Troy Davig and Michael Redmond gauge the contributions of three factors to the declining U.S. federal budget deficit.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Did Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations?

Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Consumer Price Inflation and Rising Rents in the West

Rising home rents in four western metros have increasingly boosted consumer price inflation.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
The effect of the U.S. energy boom on the trade deficit

Craig S. Hakkio and Jun Nie predict the real energy trade deficit will decline at a much slower pace in 2015 than in the past few years.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
A New Estimate of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

The author presented a new estimate of the natural (or trend) rate of unemployment that accounts for changes in the age, sex, and skill composition of the labor force. Based on this new estimate, the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.4 percentage point since 1994 and is currently 4.6 percent. Ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4 percent by the end of 2022.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
The Limited Supply of Homes

Jordan Rappaport finds that a limited supply of single-family homes will continue to constrain home sales and put upward pressure on home prices over the next few years.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
The global impact of U.S. monetary policy

Travis Berge and Guangye Cao assess the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices in 50 countries. They find a similar reaction of asset prices to conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit

Hakkio and Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.
Macro Bulletin

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