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Author:Cohen, Jeffrey P. 

Working Paper
National and Regional Housing Vacancy: Insights Using Markov-switching Models

We examine homeowner vacancy rates over time and space using Markov-switching models. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating regime-switching behavior and interregional spillovers. Our approach is strongly supported by our empirical results. Estimations, using constant-only as well as Vector Autoregressions, allow us to examine differences in vacancy rates as well as explore the possibility of asymmetries within and across housing markets, depending on the state/regime (e.g., low or high vacancy) of a given housing market. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-7

Working Paper
The Closing of a Major Airport: Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects

The closing of a busy airport has large effects on noise and economic activity. Using a unique dataset, we examine the effects of closing Denver’s Stapleton Airport on nearby housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory price effects upon announcement, but no price changes at closing and little evidence of upward trending prices between announcement and closing. However, after airport closure, more higher income and fewer black households moved into these locations, and developers built higher quality houses. Finally, post-closing, these demographic and housing stock changes ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-001

Working Paper
Local Polynomial Regressions versus OLS for Generating Location Value Estimates: Which is More Efficient in Out-of-Sample Forecasts?

As an alternative to ordinary least squares (OLS), we estimate location values for single family houses using a standard housing price and characteristics dataset by local polynomial regressions (LPR), a semi-parametric procedure. We also compare the LPR and OLS models in the Denver metropolitan area in the years 2003, 2006 and 2010 with out-of-sample forecasting. We determine that the LPR model is more efficient than OLS at predicting location values in counties with greater densities of sales. Also, LPR outperforms OLS in 2010 for all 5 counties in our dataset. Our findings suggest that LPR ...
Working Papers , Paper 2015-14

Working Paper
Semi-Parametric Interpolations of Residential Location Values: Using Housing Price Data to Generate Balanced Panels

We estimate location values for single family houses by local polynomial regressions (LPR), a semi-parametric procedure, using a standard housing price and characteristics dataset. As a logical extension of the LPR method, we interpolate land values for every property in every year and validate the accuracy of the interpolated estimates with an out-of-sample forecasting approach using Denver sales during 2003 through 2010. We also compare the LPR and OLS models out-of-sample and determine that the LPR model is more efficient at predicting location values. In a balanced panel application, we ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-50

Working Paper
Negative Externalities and Real Asset Prices: Closing of Stapleton Airport and Effect on Nearby Housing Markets

The closing of a busy airport has large effects on noise and economic activity. We examine the effects of Stapleton airport?s closing on nearby, Denver housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory effects on prices upon announcement of the closing, but no price changes at closing likely because it was widely anticipated. However, we find that high income and white households delayed moving into these locations until after the airport?s closing. Also, developers upgraded the quality of houses being built after closing. Further, post-closing, these demographic and housing stock ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-27

Working Paper
Airport-related noise, proximity, and housing prices in Atlanta

Using hedonic models, we analyze the effects of noise and proximity on housing prices in neighborhoods near Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport during 1995-2002. We address complications caused by changes over time in the levels and geographic distribution of noise and by the fact that noise levels are measured only at the beginning and after the end of the sample period. Generally speaking, housing prices were affected positively by declining noise levels. After accounting for proximity, house characteristics, and demographic variables, houses in noisier areas sold for less than ...
Working Papers , Paper 2005-060

Journal Article
Congestion at airports: the economics of airport expansions

Congestion and subsequent delays have been prevalent in many U.S. airports in recent years. A common response to congestion, championed by many community leaders, is to expand capacity by constructing new runways and terminals. Airport expansions are costly, complex, and controversial. We begin by using basic economic theory to analyze congestion at those airports that are part of an air transportation system. Next, we describe how benefit-cost analysis is used to assess the desirability of airport expansions. Many of the key points are illustrated in the context of Lambert?St. Louis ...
Review , Volume 85 , Issue May , Pages 9-26

Working Paper
Time-Geographically Weighted Regressions and Residential Property Value Assessment

In this study, we develop and apply a new methodology for obtaining accurate and equitable property value assessments. This methodology adds a time dimension to the Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) framework, which we call Time-Geographically Weighted Regressions (TGWR). That is, when generating assessed values, we consider sales that are close in time and space to the designated unit. We think this is an important improvement of GWR since this increases the number of comparable sales that can be used to generate assessed values. Furthermore, it is likely that units that sold at an ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-5

Working Paper
Interregional Migration and Housing Vacancy: Theory and Empirics

We examine homeowner vacancy rate interdependencies over time and space through the channel of migration. Our theoretical analysis extends the Wheaton (1990) search and matching model for housing by incorporating interregional spillovers due to some households’ desires to migrate between regions and by allowing for regime-switching behavior. Our empirical analysis of vacancy rates for the entire U.S. and for Census regions provides visual evidence for the possibility of regime-switching behavior. We explicitly test our model by estimating basic Vector Autoregression (VAR) and ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-007

Journal Article
An introduction to two-rate taxation of land and buildings

When taxing real property at the local level in the United States, land and improvements to the land, such as buildings, are generally taxed at the same rate. Two-rate (or split-rate) taxation departs from this practice by taxing land at a higher rate than structures. This paper begins with an elementary discussion of taxation and the economic rationale for two-rate taxation. In theory, moving to a two-rate tax reduces the deadweight losses associated with distortionary taxation and generates additional economic activity. The paper also provides a history of two-rate taxation in the United ...
Review , Volume 87 , Issue May , Pages 359-374

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