publications Economic research and commentary from https://fedinprint.org/search Thu, 13 Aug 2026 06:32:35 +0000 Does the Equity Term Structure Respond to Monetary Policy Shocks? https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103636 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103636 Dyer, Henry; Jankauskas, Tomas 2026-08-12 equity term structure; monetary policy surprises 20260812 10.59576/lse.20260812 Liberty Street Economics When Oil Prices Drop, Why Do Gasoline Prices Stay Elevated? https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103635 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103635 Owyang, Michael T.; Hathhorn, Brooke 2026-08-11 oil prices; gasoline prices On the Economy How Distressed Are Consumers? Reconciling Diverging Credit Card Delinquency Measures https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103634 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103634 Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Sinha, Tejas; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert 2026-08-11 household finance; Consumer Credit Panel (CCP); credit cards 20260811 10.59576/lse.20260811 Liberty Street Economics Worker Types, AI Exposure and the Recent Decline in Job-Finding Rates https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103633 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103633 Borovickova, Katrina; Macaluso, Claudia 2026-08-12 Employment and Labor Markets 26 26 Richmond Fed Economic Brief On-the-Job Search in Europe and the U.S.: Precautionary vs. Job Ladder Motives https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103531/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103531/original Bick, Alexander; Dias da Silva, António; Weißler, Marco 2026-06-30 69 pages job search; expectations; labor market transitions 2026-015 10.20955/wp.2026.015 Working Papers Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103632 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103632 Mertens, Thomas M.; Wasserburger, Wesley 2026-08-10 6 oil prices; financial markets 2026 21 FRBSF Economic Letter Reaching for Duration https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103631/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103631/original Mertens, Thomas M.; Paul, Pascal; Schneider, Andrés 2026-08-10 105 maturity mismatch; term premium; quantitative easing; financial stability; bank runs; deposit franchise 2026-16 10.24148/wp2026-16 Working Paper Series Will AI Intensify or Weaken Market Competition? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103630/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103630/original Firooz, Hamid; Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng 2026-08-10 47 artificial intelligence; data; heterogeneous firms; industry concentration; markup; productivity; welfare 2026-15 10.24148/wp2026-15 Working Paper Series The Erosion of Public Capital in Portugal https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103629/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103629/original Faria-e-Castro, Miguel 2026-08-10 26 pages public investment; public capital; infrastructure; Portugal; fiscal policy 2026-016 10.20955/wp.2026.016 Working Papers Stripping STRIPs Trading Activity https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103628 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103628 Fleming, Michael J.; Shachar, Or 2026-08-10 Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS); Treasury securities; trading; TRACE 20260810 10.59576/lse.20260810 Liberty Street Economics What Ties Us Together? Explaining Synchronized GDP Volatility https://fedinprint.org/item/fedbwp/103627/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedbwp/103627/original López Artero, Javier Adrián; Ductor Gómez, Lorenzo; Leiva-León, Danilo 2026-07-01 16 macroeconomic volatility; Bayesian model averaging; total factor productivity; interest rate volatility; output volatility 26-10 10.29412/res.wp.2026.10 Working Papers How do Consumers View Future Government Debt? A Primer on Debt-Growth Expectations https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103626 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103626 Walker, Christopher J.; Luduvice, Andre 2026-08-03 2026 16 10.26509/frbc-ec-202616 Economic Commentary The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labor Market https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103625 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103625 Fallick, Bruce 2026-08-04 6 2026 17 10.26509/frbc-ec-202617 Economic Commentary Financial and Production Integration in the Macroeconomy https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103624/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103624/original Brancati, Emanuele; Cao, Qingqing; Minetti, Raoul; Yi, Nicholas Jaehyun 2026-08-03 banks; financial integration; production networks; factoring 26-19 10.26509/frbc-wp-202619 Working Papers What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103623/original https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103623/original Kilian, Lutz; Patel, Kunal 2026-08-06 Iran War; oil price; supply elasticity; oil production; well completions; shale oil 2625 10.24149/wp2625 Working Papers The Incidence of Fuel-Price Shocks and Tax Holidays: Evidence from the 2026 Oil Shock https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103622/original https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103622/original Bradt, Jacob T.; Taylor, Reid 2026-08-06 gasoline tax holidays; pass-through; tax incidence; energy price shocks; distributional analysis 2624 10.24149/wp2624 Working Papers Optimal Second-best Menu Design: Evidence from Residential Electricity Plans https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103621/original https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103621/original Garcia-Osipenko, Maria; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.; Perry, Spencer; Vreugdenhil, Nicholas 2026-08-05 electricity pricing; time-of-use pricing; menu design; consumer choice; social welfare 2623 10.24149/wp2623 Working Papers The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103620/original https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103620/original de Souza, Gustavo; Nath, Ishan; Mertens, Karel; Fieldhouse, Andrew J.; Ramey, Valerie A. 2026-08-04 Public R&D; International R&D Spillovers; Social Returns to R&D; Productivity; Technological Diffusion 2622 10.24149/wp2622 Working Papers Subnational Bilateral Remittance Flows in the U.S.-Mexico Corridor: A Multi-Source Imputation and Validation https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103619/original https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103619/original Flores, Miguel; Cañas, Jesus 2026-08-03 remittances; bilateral imputation; subnational flows; Mexico; migration corridors; Matrículas Consulares; ENADID; matrix entropy; COVID-19 2621 10.24149/wp2621 Working Papers How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103618 https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103618 Martínez García, Enrique; Mau, Ron 2026-08-04 USMCA; United States; Mexico; Canada; trade; tariffs Dallas Fed Economics Inflation Uncertainty and Endogenous Planning Horizons https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103617/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103617/original Gust, Christopher J.; Herbst, Edward P.; López-Salido, J. David 2026-08-06 47 p. inflation uncertainty; finite-horizon planning; inflation expectations 10.17016/FEDS.2026.055 Finance and Economics Discussion Series The Price of Bank Funding Behind Private Credit: Evidence from Business Development Companies https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103616 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103616 Haque, Sharjil M.; Wang, Jessie Jiaxu 2026-08-07 2026-08-07 10.17016/2380-7172.4142 FEDS Notes Examining the Sensitivity of Regional Banks to Macroeconomic Shocks https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103615 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103615 Achugamonu, Faith; Afanasyeva, Elena; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Seay, Matthew P. 2026-08-04 2026-08-04 10.17016/2380-7172.4097 FEDS Notes Monetary Policy and Productivity: Promoting Growth vs. Stabilizing Prices https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlps/103613 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlps/103613 Musalem, Alberto G. 2026-08-06 9 pages artificial intelligence (AI); productivity; monetary policy easing Speech Early Warning Signals in Private Credit? What BDC Portfolios Reveal about Emerging Risks https://fedinprint.org/item/fedbcq/103612 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedbcq/103612 Fillat, José; Shen, Leslie Sheng; Wang, J. Christina 2026-08-05 10 private credit; Business development companies (BDCs); financial stability; credit risk; payment-in-kind; middle-market lending 26-6 Current Policy Perspectives Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move? https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103611 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103611 Gresh, Christopher; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Eungik; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert 2026-08-06 residential mobility; renters; moving expectations 20260806 10.59576/lse.20260806 Liberty Street Economics Outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan Economies: A speech at the 2026 Economic Luncheon of the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation, Anchorage, Alaska., August 05, 2026 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103610 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103610 Cook, Lisa D. 2026-08-05 10 Speech High Costs and Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Cattle Inventories Low and Beef Prices Elevated for Some Time https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103609 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103609 Scott, Francisco 2026-08-05 4 Economic Bulletin From Barrier to Bridge: Approaches to Address Benefits Cliffs https://fedinprint.org/item/a00034/103608 https://fedinprint.org/item/a00034/103608 Rees, John; Barnes, Keith; Birken, Brittany 2026-08-04 14 2026-3 10.29338/wc2026-03 Workforce Currents Spreading Out Across Expanding Idea Space https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103607/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103607/original Ganguli, Ina; Lin, Jeffrey; Meursault, Vitaly; Reynolds, Nicholas 2026-08-05 109 Idea Space; Knowledge Spillovers; Research Productivity; Endogenous Growth; Technological Distance; Patent Embeddings 26-39 10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.39 Working Papers The Ins and Outs of Long-Term Unemployment https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103606 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103606 Borovickova, Katrina; Macaluso, Claudia 2026-08-06 Employment and Labor Markets 26 25 Richmond Fed Economic Brief Capital and AI Investment in the Fifth District https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103605 https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103605 Ngo, Drew; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath 2026-08-06 Business Surveys; Artificial intelligence; Production and Investment Regional Matters What Businesses Are Saying: Steady Overall With Pockets of Stress https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103604 https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103604 Bauer, Andrew; Haltom, Renee Courtois; Martin, Matthew 2026-07-31 Business Cycles; Employment and Labor Markets; Production and Investment Regional Matters How Do Sectoral Shocks Shape Future GDP? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103603/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103603/original Ho, Paul; Lashkari, Danial; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. 2026-08-03 59 sectoral shocks; production networks; investment linkages; dynamic propagation 26-11 10.21144/wp26-11 Working Paper The Future of Monetarism after Milton Friedman https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlrv/103602 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlrv/103602 Bordo, Michael D. 2026-07-31 1-8 monetarism; monetary aggregates; monetary policy rules 108 8 10.20955/r.2026.08 Review What Is Foreign Direct Investment? https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103601 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103601 Hennerich, Heather 2026-08-05 foreign direct investment; tax revenue; employment; technology transfer; skills transfer On the Economy A Window into Bond Investors’ Uncertainty About R‑Star https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103600 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103600 Roussellet, Guillaume 2026-08-04 r-star; Subjective beliefs; Incomplete information; term structure of interest rates 2026804 10.59576/lse.20260804 Liberty Street Economics What’s Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation? https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103599 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103599 Bick, Alexander 2026-08-04 labor force participation; prime-age workers; statistical corrections On the Economy ForeComp: An R Package for Comparing Predictive Accuracy Using Fixed-Smoothing Asymptotics https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103596/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103596/original Shin, Minchul; Schor, Nathan 2026-08-04 46 forecast comparison; Diebold–Mariano test; fixed-b asymptotics; fixed-m asymptotics; long-run variance estimation; R package 26-38 10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.38 Working Papers Open Banking: A Critical Piece in the Future of Financial Services https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/103595 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/103595 Alcazar, Julian; Baird, Sam 2026-08-03 5 Payments System Research Briefing Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103594 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103594 Chen, Ingrid; Kudlyak, Marianna; Mikhlin, Riva 2026-08-03 6 job finding; unemployment rate; labor market health 2026 20 FRBSF Economic Letter Mortgage Lock-in: A Review of the Literature https://fedinprint.org/item/fedawp/103593/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedawp/103593/original Gerardi, Kristopher; Qian, Franklin; Zhang, David Hao 2026-08-03 26 mortgage lock-in; fixed-rate mortgage (FRM); household mobility; house prices; rents 2026-11 10.29338/wp2026-11 FRB Atlanta Working Paper Is Houston's decades-long growth spurt winding down? https://fedinprint.org/item/feddse/103590 https://fedinprint.org/item/feddse/103590 King, Bill 2026-07-31 Texas economy; Houston; demographics Southwest Economy Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Beth Hammack regarding her vote at the Federal Open Market Committee's July 28–29 meeting https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcsp/103592 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcsp/103592 Hammack, Beth 2026-07-31 Speech Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103591/original https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103591/original Casella, Sara; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Hansen, Stephen; Oishi, Ryohei; Shin, Minchul 2026-07-31 unstructured data; text as data; DSGE models; spike-and-slab priors; monetary policy; Phillips curve; FOMC transcripts 2620 10.24149/wp2620 Working Papers Measuring Macroeconomic Stars: A Framework with Scarring Effects https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103589/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103589/original Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel; Laforte, Jean-Philippe; Lepetit, Antoine 2026-06-29 61 p. potential output; natural rates; unobserved components model; Bayesian analysis; scarring 2026-054 10.17016/FEDS.2026.054 Finance and Economics Discussion Series How Firms Form Beliefs and the Implications for Inflation https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103588/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103588/original Minton, Robert; Monnery, Hugo 2026-07-31 83 p. 2026-053 10.17016/FEDS.2026.053 Finance and Economics Discussion Series Credit Surfaces and Economic Uncertainty https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103587/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103587/original Geanakoplos, John; Rappoport, David E. 2026-07-31 82 p. credit surfaces; economic uncertainty; bond pricing; credit spreads; Black-Scholes-Merton model; leverage 2026-052 10.17016/FEDS.2026.052 Finance and Economics Discussion Series Monetary Policy Stance and Commodity Cycles in Emerging Economies https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103586 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103586 Monterroso, Oscar; Vilán, Diego 2026-07-31 2026-07-31 10.17016/2380-7172.4116 FEDS Notes AI and Productivity: What Firms Are Saying on Earnings Calls https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103585 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103585 Ozkan, Serdar; Kalyani, Aakash; Sullivan, Nicholas 2026-07-31 artificial intelligence (AI); earnings calls; productivity On the Economy Banking Analytics: Agricultural Lending by Community Banks Remained Strong in Q1 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103584 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103584 Williams, Krista 2026-07-30 agricultural lending On the Economy Stablecoins and (Non)Crypto Shocks: A 2026 Update https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103583 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103583 Anadu, Kenechukwu E.; Azar, Pablo D.; Baker, Sean; Cipriani, Marco; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Landoni, Mattia; La Spada, Gabriele; Macchiavelli, Marco; Wang, J. Christina 2026-07-31 stablecoins; fintech; money-like assets; GENIUS Act 20260731 10.59576/lse.20260731 Liberty Street Economics Do Actions Match Words? Reassessing the Taylor Rule in an Emerging-Market Context https://fedinprint.org/item/fedbwp/103582/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedbwp/103582/original Garga, Vaishali; Sengupta, Rajeswari 2026-07-01 57 commitment; communication; credibility; emerging markets; forecasts; forward-looking; inflation targeting; monetary policy; Reserve Bank of India; Taylor rule 26-9 10.29412/res.wp.2026.09 Working Papers What Unemployment Insurance Claims Can — and Cannot — Tell Us https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103581 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103581 Macaluso, Claudia 2026-07-31 employment and labor markets 26 24 Richmond Fed Economic Brief AI Adoption Among Small Businesses: Qualitative Insights from the Small Business Credit Survey https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfcb/103580 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfcb/103580 Sanchez-Moyano, Rocio; Holmes, Natalie; Simms, Sarah 2026-07-15 19 artificial intelligence; small business credit; AI adoption 2026 01 10.24148/cdrb2026-01 Community Development Research Brief CRE Development Potential and the Selection of Opportunity Zones https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103569/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103569/original Glancy, David P.; Kurtzman, Robert J.; Loewenstein, Lara 2026-07-15 26-17 10.26509/frbc-wp-202617 Working Papers Inference Based on Scale, Label, and Economic Restrictions https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103578/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103578/original Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Waggoner, Daniel F. 2026-07-22 47 structural vector autoregressions; unit modulus normalization 26-36 10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.36 Working Papers Is the US Economy K-Shaped? Evidence From the Past Three Decades https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103577 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103577 DeMaria, Kyle; Jones, John Bailey; Mengedoth, Joseph; Neelakantan, Urvi 2025-07-15 Business cycles; economic growth 26 23 Richmond Fed Economic Brief How Have Fuel Prices Changed for Fifth District Consumers? https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103576 https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103576 Pessin, Taylor 2026-07-16 household and consumer finance Regional Matters Optimizing Retirement Financial Strategies: Integrating Annuities, Defined Contribution Plans, and Long-Term Care Costs https://fedinprint.org/item/fedmoi/103575/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedmoi/103575/original Horneff, Vanya; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S.; Odenbreit, Julius 2026-07-17 Retirement saving; Annuity; Nursing home costs; Medicaid; Health shocks 131 10.21034/iwp.131 Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers Manufacturing Employment Trends in the Fourth District https://fedinprint.org/item/c00003/103574 https://fedinprint.org/item/c00003/103574 Barrow, Lisa; Whitbred, Kate 2026-07-14 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20260714 SORCE Insights: Tracking Operating Margins in the Fourth District https://fedinprint.org/item/c00003/103573 https://fedinprint.org/item/c00003/103573 Huettner, Brett 2026-07-15 10.26509/frbc-ddb-20260715 Earnings Gaps in the Aftermath of COVID-19 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103572 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103572 Dicandia, Vittoria 2026-07-13 12 2026 15 10.26509/frbc-ec-202615 Economic Commentary Macroeconomic Parameter Instability in Auto Loan Loss Models https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103571/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103571/original Fritsch, Nicholas; Prescott, Edward Simpson 2026-07-16 26-18 10.26509/frbc-wp-202618 Working Papers Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103570/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103570/original Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy 2026-07-14 26-16 10.26509/frbc-wp-202616 Working Papers Measuring Overtime Exemption Status: A Task-Based Approach https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103568/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcwq/103568/original Rinz, Kevin 2026-07-13 45 26-15 10.26509/frbc-wp-202615 Working Papers Remarks on inflation, employment and monetary policy https://fedinprint.org/item/feddsp/103566 https://fedinprint.org/item/feddsp/103566 Logan, Lorie 2026-07-16 Speeches and Essays Rig count no longer a reliable bellwether for risk in oil and gas services lending https://fedinprint.org/item/d00067/103565 https://fedinprint.org/item/d00067/103565 Byun, SungJe; Gonzalez, Mario A. 2026-07-16 banking and finance; energy Dallas Fed Banking Tokenized deposits use blockchain structure in traditional banking framework https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103564 https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103564 Dunbar, Seth; Sagnanert, Pon; Saretto, Alessio; Venkatu, Guhan 2026-07-14 Dallas Fed Economics Oil Prices and Container Shipping Costs https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103563 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103563 Leibovici, Fernando; Chinagorom-Abiakalam, Dawn 2026-07-17 oil prices; oil shocks; shipping costs; container ships On the Economy Transmission Growth-at-Risk: How Foreign Financial Vulnerabilities Shape U.S. Growth Prospects https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103562/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103562/original Ma, Sai; Stebunovs, Viktors; Temesvary, Judit 2026-07-17 55 p. growth-at-risk; financial vulnerabilities; international transmission; risk assessment 1442 10.17016/IFDP.2026.1442 International Finance Discussion Papers Hidden Leverage in Nonfinancial Corporations https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103561/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103561/original Kallen, Cody 2026-07-16 48 p. off-balance-sheet; lease financing; capital structure; disclosure of off-balance-sheet financing 1441 10.17016/IFDP.2026.1441 International Finance Discussion Papers The Last Taxi: LCR Buffers and Bank Liquidity Provision https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103560/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103560/original Darst, Matt; Gurrieri, Lucia; Lubis, Arazi; Vardoulakis, Alexandros 2026-07-17 28 p. liquidity regulation; credit lines; bank lending; financial crises; regulatory buffers 2026-051 10.17016/FEDS.2026.051 Finance and Economics Discussion Series Demand Shocks and Endogenous Uncertainty https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103559/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103559/original Vilán, Diego 2026-07-16 62 p. uncertainty; heterogeneous firms; cross-sectional firm dynamics 2026-050 10.17016/FEDS.2026.050 Finance and Economics Discussion Series The AI Buildout and the Economy: Publicly Available Data to Assess AI's Impact https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103558 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103558 Soto, Paul E.; Thieu, Mason; Allen, Jeffrey S. 2026-07-17 2026-07-17-2 10.17016/2380-7172.4119 FEDS Notes Vietnam's Export Boom to the U.S.: The Role of Chinese Firms https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103556 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103556 Hoang, Trang T.; Van Leemput, Eva; Avalos, Chris A. 2026-07-17 2026-07-17-1 10.17016/2380-7172.4117 FEDS Notes Fifth Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar: Stablecoins, Digital Payments, and the International Role of the U.S. Dollar https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103555 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103555 Correa, Ricardo; Goldberg, Linda S.; Keerati, Ritt; Londono, Juan M.; Ravazzolo, Fabiola 2026-07-16 2026-07-16 10.17016/2380-7172.4140 FEDS Notes Technology Shocks, the AI Boom, and the U.S. Current Account https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103554 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103554 Fiori, Giuseppe; Lipa, Colleen; Nuenninghoff, Erik 2026-07-14 2026-07-14 10.17016/2380-7172.4106 FEDS Notes Long-Run Intergenerational Effects of Social Security https://fedinprint.org/item/fedawp/103553/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedawp/103553/original Fetter, Daniel; Lockwood, Lee; Mohnen, Paul 2026-07-16 117 Social Security; social insurance; old-age support; intergenerational transfers; coresidence; geographic mobility; internal migration; intergenerational mobility; linked census data; New Deal; public pensions 2026-10 10.29338/wp2026-10 FRB Atlanta Working Paper Attention-Dependent Monetary Transmission to Household Beliefs https://fedinprint.org/item/fedawp/103552/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedawp/103552/original Jeong, Jaemin; Ma, Eunseong; Yang, Choongryul 2026-07-14 84 inflation expectations; monetary policy transmission; rational inattention; state dependence; expectations multipliers 2026-9 10.29338/wp2026-09 FRB Atlanta Working Paper Rethinking Central Bank LSAPs: The Power of Market Functioning Purchases https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/103551/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrw/103551/original Smith, Andrew Lee; Valcarcel, Victor J. 2026-07-17 44 monetary policy; balance sheet policy; SOMA; quantitative easing; primary dealers; market making; narrative restrictions; structural VAR; liquidity; intermediation RWP 26-05 10.18651/RWP2026-05 Research Working Paper Prices and Monetary Policy: The Role of Financial Constraints https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103550/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103550/original Bauer, Michael D.; Czarnota, Alexander; Klein, Mathias 2026-07-17 58 prices; monetary policy; financial constraints; firm heterogeneity 2026-13 10.24148/wp2026-13 Working Paper Series Recency Effects in Perceived Uncertainty https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103549/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103549/original Acosta, Miguel; Sung, Yeji 2026-07-10 50 2026-12 10.24148/wp2026-12 Working Paper Series Navigating Economic Shocks: A Monetary Policymaker’s Perspective: A speech at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California., July 16, 2026 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103548 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103548 Jefferson, Philip N. 2026-07-16 23 Speech Nonbank Subsidiaries and the Hidden Fragility of Internal Capital Markets Reallocation https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103547 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103547 Cetorelli, Nicola; Kundu, Shohini 2026-07-17 banks; nonbanks; bank holding companies (BHCs); regulation; arbitrage; boundaries of the firm 20260717 10.59576/lse.20260717 Liberty Street Economics Capitalizing on Nonbanks: Regulatory Arbitrage Within Bank Holding Companies https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103533 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103533 Kundu, Shohini; Cetorelli, Nicola 2026-07-15 banks; nonbanks; bank holding companies (BHCs); regulation; arbitrage; boundaries of the firm 20260715 10.59576/lse.20260715 Liberty Street Economics How Basel III Changes Where Capital Sits: Nonbank Subsidiaries as Equity Reservoirs https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103545 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103545 Cetorelli, Nicola; Kundu, Shohini 2026-07-16 banks; nonbanks; bank holding companies (BHCs); regulation; arbitrage; boundaries of the firm 20260716 10.59576/lse.20260716 Liberty Street Economics Bank Runs With and Without Bank Failure https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsr/103544 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsr/103544 Correia, Sergio A.; Luck, Stephan; Verner, Emil 2026-07-01 143 bank runs; bank failures; banking crises; financial stability; financial history; artificial intelligence (AI) 1198 10.59576/sr.1198 Staff Reports Welcoming Remarks and Introduction of Guest Lecturer Jason Furman https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlps/103543 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlps/103543 Musalem, Alberto G. 2026-07-15 2 pages Speech New Survey Findings on AI Adoption and Its Effects on Employment and Productivity https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103542 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103542 Gutkowski, Violeta A.; Gascon, Charles S.; Silvanus, Rehann 2026-07-16 survey data; technology adoption; artificial intelligence (AI); Federal Reserve District, 8th On the Economy Between Headline and Core: Inflation Excluding Energy Goods https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103541 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103541 Martin, Fernando M. 2026-07-15 headline inflation; price indexes; personal consumption expenditures (PCE); core inflation On the Economy Economic Outlook: A speech at The Exchequer Club of Washington D.C., Washington, D.C., July 15, 2026 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103540 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103540 Cook, Lisa D. 2026-07-15 8 Speech Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion: A speech at Next-Gen Financial Inclusion,” the third annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)., July 14, 2026 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103539 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103539 Bowman, Michelle W. 2026-07-14 5 Speech Will Artificial Intelligence Broadly Raise Living Standards or Drive Income and Wealth Inequality?., A speech at Next-Gen Financial Inclusion,” the third annual Financial Inclusion Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board., July 14, 2026 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103538 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103538 Barr, Michael S. 2026-07-14 13 Speech Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress: A speech at Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives., July 14, 2026 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103537 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103537 Warsh, Kevin M. 2026-07-14 6 Speech Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: A speech at the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York., July 13, 2026 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103536 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103536 Waller, Christopher J. 2026-07-13 11 Speech Stability of Thy Times https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsp/103535 https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsp/103535 Williams, John C. 2026-07-15 inflation; stability; resilience; monetary policy; labor market; artificial intelligence (AI); technology Speech Are U.S. Consumers Ready to Use Pay-by-Bank at the Point of Sale? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/103534 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkpb/103534 Toh, Ying Lei 2026-07-15 5 account-to-account (A2A) transfers; payment methods; tap-and-pay; point-of-sale payments Payments System Research Briefing The Dynamics of Ample Reserves https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103530/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103530/original Armenter, Roc 2026-07-15 18 monetary policy; liquid deposits; ample reserves; policy rate 26-34 10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.34 Working Papers The Baby Bust: How Economics Can Explain Demographic Changes https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlpo/103529 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlpo/103529 Kaiman, Mike; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume 2026-07-10 birth rates; productivity; opportunity cost; per capita income Page One Economics Newsletter