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<title> publications</title>
<description>Economic research and commentary from </description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2026 17:02:48 +0000</pubDate>
<item>
<title>Driving Through Economic Fog (Still)</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/103245</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[A year ago today, I stood before a group like this one and described navigating last year’s economy as trying to drive through fog. 
I can’t stand here a year later and tell you the fog has lifted. If anything, it’s deepened and spread. 
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been a critical part of the fog machine. Its capabilities are advancing dramatically. The range of possible outcomes is wide and it’s hard to see clearly through all the frenzy.
Then add in the fog of war. Oil prices have spiked. Supply chains have been disrupted. Uncertainty has surged. No one knows how long the Iran conflict will persist, nor what its aftereffects will be.
At our last meeting, with risks to both the labor market and inflation, and the outlook foggy, it felt prudent to hold rates and await more clarity on how we should be leaning to best support the economy going forward.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/103245</guid>
<dc:creator>Barkin, Tom</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-03-27</dc:date>
<dc:subject>business Cycles; economic growth; inflation; monetary policy</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Deterioration in Farm Financial Conditions Remains Gradual</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103244</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Despite continued weakness in the crop sector, farm financial conditions have tightened only gradually, and stress remains limited. Loan delinquency rates remain low, average farmland values have been stable, and leverage in the sector remains modest. Direct government payments have limited losses for crop operations and provided modest relief, while strong cattle prices have boosted incomes in many areas.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103244</guid>
<dc:creator>Kreitman, Ty</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-13</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Update On Federal Reserve Bank Operations: A speech at the Hoover Institution Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California., May 8, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103243</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103243</guid>
<dc:creator>Waller, Christopher J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>6</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>When Regulation Reshapes Markets: The Migration of Corporate Lending: A speech at the Hoover Institution Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California., May 8, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103242</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103242</guid>
<dc:creator>Bowman, Michelle W.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>9</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Al Broaddus, Productivity Growth and Monetary Policy in the 1990s</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103241</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Former Richmond Fed President Al Broaddus made important contributions to FOMC discussions in the late 1990s.
Broaddus argued that a sustained increase in productivity growth required an increase in real interest rates.
With the possibility that artificial intelligence may raise trend productivity growth, this history from the late 1990s has renewed relevance today.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103241</guid>
<dc:creator>Wolman, Alexander L.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-13</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Economic Growth; Monetary Policy</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>15</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Trade Finance Activities of U.S. Banks: What the Data Can Tell Us</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103240</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Trade finance encompasses a range of financial instruments and services designed to facilitate international trade. U.S. banks are key providers of these services. This note draws on several regulatory data sources to show that trade finance supports a sizeable share of international trade, is highly concentrated in large U.S. banks, and has declined over time.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103240</guid>
<dc:creator>Niepmann, Friederike; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-08-5</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4052</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Measuring Renters in Credit Data: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103239</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Historic swings in rents during the pandemic have driven increased interest in research on the financial impacts of rising rents on households. However, compared to homeowners with a mortgage, data on renters are scarce, limiting researchers' ability to analyze the 28 percent of adults who rent their home.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103239</guid>
<dc:creator>Tranfaglia, Anna; Troland, Erin</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-08-4</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4050</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Measuring Mutual Fund Liquidity with N-PORT</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103238</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Open-end mutual funds play a critical role in financial markets and remain major holders of key securities including corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Past stress episodes have exposed the fragility of liquidity provision by corporate bond mutual funds, which can experience large investor outflows that must be met on demand despite holding relatively illiquid assets.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103238</guid>
<dc:creator>Larsson, Erik; Kawamura, Ty; Shin, Chaehee</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-08-3</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4037</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Subprime Auto Lending: Trends in Buy Here Pay Here Auto Lending</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103237</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Buy Here Pay Here (BHPH) auto dealers occupy a unique position in the auto market by serving as both the seller and financier of vehicles to their customers. This contrasts with traditional auto dealers, who connect buyers to financing options from third-party banks, credit unions, or auto finance companies, including the captive financing arms of auto manufacturers.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103237</guid>
<dc:creator>Zoulalian, Stephen; Cox, David; Wang, James Z.; Liu, Lily; Chyruk, Olena</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-08-2</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4047</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Investor Composition of Money Market Funds and Its Implications for Flow Dynamics</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103236</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Money market funds (MMFs) play a critical role in supplying short-term funding to corporations, banks, and governments. While existing research has made substantial progress in understanding MMF portfolio choices and investor flows, little is known about the composition of MMFs' institutional investors.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103236</guid>
<dc:creator>Li, Yi; Panetta, Nick; Watts, Weston</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-08-1</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.3973</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>AI-Powered Algorithmic Pricing and Monetary Policy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103235</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The business practice of adjusting prices using algorithms powered by artificial intelligence—known as AI pricing—has grown rapidly and spread across many sectors in the economy. Unlike traditional price setting, AI pricing uses predictive analysis of large data sets to incorporate real-time changes in supply and demand conditions into pricing decisions. This enables businesses to adjust prices more quickly in response to unexpected changes in market conditions and monetary policy. Industry-level evidence suggests that price adjustments are more sensitive to monetary policy in sectors where AI pricing is more prevalent.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103235</guid>
<dc:creator>Avaradi, Greeshma; Liu, Zheng; Zhao, Steven</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-11</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>5</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>artificial intelligence; algorithmic pricing; monetary policy</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>2026</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>12</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>FRBSF Economic Letter</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Federal Student Loan Defaults Return After Pandemic Pause</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103234</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[During 2026:Q1, household debt balances increased slightly, by $18 billion, to reach $18.8 trillion, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Amid upticks in mortgage, HELOC, and auto balances and a seasonal decline in credit card balances, student loan balances remained unchanged. However, the share of student loan balances past due increased, nearing pre-pandemic levels at just over 10 percent. In this post, we focus on which borrowers entered default on their federal student loans over the past two quarters. We find that the average borrower entering default is nearly 40 years old, was not past due on their student loans prior to the pandemic, and is more likely to live in the South. While defaulted borrowers are more likely to be past due on other forms of debt, the overall scope of student loan defaults is still relatively low, suggesting that fears of broader contagion to other credit products are premature.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103234</guid>
<dc:creator>Jacob, Zara; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-12</dc:date>
<dc:subject>household debt; student loans</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>20260512</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/lse.20260512</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Liberty Street Economics</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Technology Adoption and Optimal Policy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103233/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We study optimal policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous monopolistic competitive firms pay a fixed cost to adopt an exogenously growing frontier technology. Using Mean Field Games tools, we show that the optimal policy consists of two time-invariant subsidies: one correcting static misallocation, and one correcting the dynamic under-incentive to adopt. This holds outside of balanced growth paths, for any initial distribution of technology gaps. We analyze a version of the model that aggregates to a Neoclassical Growth Model with an S-shaped production function whenever complementarities are strong, and fully characterize when the optimal policy uniquely implements the first best. When it does not, two novel results emerge: the efficient allocation prescribes escaping a poverty trap—providing an explicit optimality foundation for a Big Push—and escaping an abundance trap, where dismantling adopted technologies is optimal. In both cases, a temporary, costless supplementary policy restores unique implementation.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedrwp/103233/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Alvarez, Fernando; Buera, Francisco J.; Trachter, Nicholas</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-12</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>67</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>production and investment; development dynamics</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-09</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21144/wp26-09</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Paper</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Demographics of Wealth 2015, Essay No. 1: Race, Ethnicity and Wealth</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103224</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This first essay in the "Demographics of Wealth" series examines the connection between race or ethnicity and wealth accumulation over the past quarter-century. As with subsequent essays, this one is the result of an analysis of data collected between 1989 and 2013 through the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances. More than 40,000 heads of households were interviewed over those years.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103224</guid>
<dc:creator>Boshara, Ray; Noeth, Bryan J.; Emmons, William R.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2015-02</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>28 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>demographics; income; wealth</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Demographics of Wealth 2015, Essay No. 2: Education and Wealth</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103225</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This essay documents large and growing differences in financial choices and financial outcomes across educational levels since at least 1989, when our data begin.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103225</guid>
<dc:creator>Boshara, Ray; Noeth, Bryan J.; Emmons, William R.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2015-05</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>33 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>demographics; income; wealth</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Reversing the Tipping Point?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103212</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103212</guid>
<dc:creator>Cynamon, Barry Z.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2017-06-22</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>34 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Evolving U.S. Economy and Household Debt: Featured Speaker Remarks</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103210</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103210</guid>
<dc:creator>Dynan, Karen E.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2017-06-22</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>39 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>How Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103209</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We study the business cycle consequences of credit supply expansion in the U.S. The 1980's credit boom resulted in stronger credit expansion in more deregulated states, and these states experience a more amplified business cycle. A new test shows that amplification is primarily driven by the local demand rather than the production capacity channel. States with greater exposure to credit expansion experience larger increases in household debt, the relative price of non-tradable goods, nominal wages, and non-tradable employment. Yet there is no change in tradable sector employment. Eventually states with greater exposure to credit expansion experience a significantly deeper recession.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103209</guid>
<dc:creator>Verner, Emil; Sufi, Amir; Mian, Atif</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2017-10</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>59 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Household Debt at the Tipping Point: When and Why Does Household Borrowing Hurt the Economy?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103206</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[While household credit booms and busts are not new phenomena, the financial crisis in 2008 and its devastating effects have spurred a deeper examination of the mechanics underlying these episodes. We review this growing literature and attempt to answer four primary questions: What drove the recent (and previous) household credit booms? What factors precipitated the tipping point in household borrowing in the economy? How did the following deleveraging efforts affect the economy? Can the literature guide us on how to avoid these destructive cycles or mitigate the damage in the future? Looking at the origins of the recent episode we find more evidence supporting the "irrational exuberance" demand-side view espoused by Robert Shiller than an exclusive supply-side explanation that stresses loosening mortgage credit standards as argued by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi. However, both perspectives likely are important and researchers remain far from reaching a consensus on the origins or implications and any of the other key aspects of the recent episode. The double leverage cycle and its violent unwinding triggered by "scary bad news" put forth by John Geanakoplos is the most compelling model of a tipping point. Whether deleveraging per se was responsible for the slow recovery remains uncertain as important structural factors such as demographic, technological or political changes were also at play during this time, confounding identification. Given the uncertainty surrounding the recent episode, few prescriptions are available for policymakers.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103206</guid>
<dc:creator>Ricketts, Lowell R.; Emmons, William R.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2017-06-22</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>22 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Sustainability of U.S. Household Finances</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103205</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The financial sustainability of U.S. households is usually proxied by intuitive measures, like the debt-income ratio, that are only loosely linked with a more rigorous definition of sustainability. We employ balance sheet and income date from the PSID to project lifetime resources and compare these resources with household consumption to assess household financial sustainability. Preliminary results show that while the vast majority of American households were sustainable in the mid 1980s, sustainability declined sharply through the early 2000s and remained low until the eve of the Great Recession. Sustainability improved modestly in the aftermath of the crisis, but remains well below levels from two decades ago.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103205</guid>
<dc:creator>Cynamon, Barry Z.; Cooper, Daniel H.; Fazzari, Steven</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2016-10-14</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>44 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Demographics of Loan Delinquency: Tipping Points or Tip of the Iceberg?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103201</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Loan-delinquency rates differ sharply across demographic groups. Families that are younger, less-educated and non-white are much more likely to miss payments than older, better-educated and white families. Controlling for a host of observable variables—including differences in balance sheets, family structure and measures of luck such as income shocks—reduces but does not eliminate the ability of some demographic factors to predict missed payments. This result provides only limited support for the view that "demographics don’t matter," according to which families with delinquency-prone demographic characteristics miss payments because they simply make riskier choices. These families presumably live closer to the edge financially and more frequently encounter a "tipping point" that pushes them over. An alternative view supported by our data is that systematic forces that include life-cycle effects, socio-economic background, current or historical discrimination and other disadvantage largely shape financial behavior. These structural and systemic factors therefore are important in understanding loan delinquency. Significantly higher delinquency rates among young, less-educated and non-white families may be the "tip of the iceberg" of living with greater financial risk every day.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103201</guid>
<dc:creator>Ricketts, Lowell R.; Emmons, William R.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2016-10-18</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>35 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Debt Goes On: A Post-Crisis &quot;Progress&quot; Report</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103203</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103203</guid>
<dc:creator>Alpert, Daniel; Hockett, Robert</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2016-10</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>29 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Identifying &quot;Tipping Points&quot; in Consumer Liabilities Using High-Frequency Data</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103202</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The concept of a "tipping point" captures the idea of a threshold where debt is no longer sustainable and becomes a drag on household financial well-being. In the most severe cases, a "tipping point" represents the point at which a household experiences a debt default. This paper constructs different measures based on the dynamics of the monthly debt payment to after-tax income ratio. The preliminary examination using data from the Credit Risk Insight Servicing McDash (CRISM) dataset suggests that some of these measures have some predictive content when compared to alternative risk measures such as a FICO score.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103202</guid>
<dc:creator>Ricketts, Lowell R.; Garriga, Carlos; Schlagenhauf, Don E.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2016-10-19</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>26 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Interest Rates and Equity Extraction During the Housing Boom</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103204</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Using credit record panel data from 1999–2010, we show that the likelihood of home equity extraction (borrowing, on average, about $40,000 against one’s home) peaked in 2003 when mortgage rates hit historic lows, and estimate that a 100 basis point rate decline is associated with a 25 percent rise in the likelihood of extraction. Further, this relationship is ampliﬁed in ZIP codes with substantial house price growth. Differential responses to interest rates and home price appreciation by age and credit score provide new evidence of ﬁnancial frictions. Finally, equity extraction is associated with higher default risk, especially for extractors in 2006 who were more than twice as likely to become delinquent on a mortgage than non-extractors over the next four years.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103204</guid>
<dc:creator>Keys, Benjamin J.; Bhutta, Neil</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2015-07</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>55 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>household debt; family finances; household financial stability</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Declining Birth Rates and Global Population Change</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103199</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Learn what the world population would be, and how it would be distributed across low- and high-income countries, if birth rates hadn’t declined for the past 60 years.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103199</guid>
<dc:creator>Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-11</dc:date>
<dc:subject>birth rates; world population; population trends; population growth</dc:subject>
<ebucore:publicationChannel>On the Economy</ebucore:publicationChannel>
</item>
<item>
<title>Pretend or Amend? On Evergreening in CRE</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103198/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Loan modifications can either amplify or mitigate credit losses depending on the strategy lenders employ.  Using detailed supervisory data and a model accounting for competing extension motivations (temporary repayment difficulties, foreclosure costs, and loss recognition costs), I assess why banks extend CRE loans.  I find that extensions predominantly address temporary payment frictions, both in normal times and following the Spring 2023 bank stress episode. Contrary to banks "extending-and-pretending" during that episode, banks increased income and principal paydown requirements for extensions, contributing to strong ex-post performance for extended loans.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103198/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Glancy, David P.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>73 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>nonresidential real estate; loan delinquency; foreclosures; credit risk; commercial lending</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-025</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.025</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Effect of the Federal Reserve on the Stock Market: Magnitudes, Channels and Shocks</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103197/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We survey and extend work on the Federal Reserve’s effect on the stock market, focusing on three empirical findings: The effect of monetary policy surprises in a narrow window around announcements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the pre-FOMC announcement drift, and the FOMC cycle in stock returns. We discuss the magnitude of the Fed’s impact (directional effects or effects on average stock returns), the types of shocks coming from the Fed (pure monetary policy shocks, reaction function news, or information about the Fed’s view of the economy), and the asset pricing channels through which effects emerge (an equity premia for news from the Fed, or changes to yields, equity premia, or expected dividends). We also consider the information transmission (communication) channels. The Fed’s effect on the stock market is large, even for average stock returns earned over periods of several decades. Fed-induced changes to both yields and equity premia play substantial roles, with less direct evidence available regarding cash flows. For stocks, reaction function news appears to be more important than Fed information effects. Communication flows outside announcements windows are important.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103197/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Knox, Benjamin; Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>29 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>asset pricing; monetary policy transmission; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); monetary policy communication; risk premiums</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-023</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.023</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Financial Well-being and Inclusion of Justice Involved Populations: Evidence from the SHED</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103196/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This study examines financial challenges faced by justice-involved individuals using 2023-2024 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking data. Individuals with justice system contact experience substantially worse financial outcomes than those without criminal records, with disparities widening by severity of involvement. Compared to individuals with no prior records, those arrested but not convicted are 4 percentage points less likely to report doing at least okay financially, while formerly convicted as well as incarcerated adults are 15 percentage points less likely. Formerly incarcerated individuals are also 21 percentage points less likely to have credit scores above 660 and 13 percentage points less likely to have credit cards. These disparities mirror patterns observed across education levels, where adults with lower educational attainment experience lower financial well-being and inclusion. Our findings document substantial barriers to financial stability among justice-involved populations and may inform policies promoting financial inclusion and improving economic outcomes for this group.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103196/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Dasgupta, Kabir; Fernandez, Jennifer; Lloro, Alicia</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>23 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>consumer credit reports; consumer credit scoring; discrimination; economic inclusion</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-024</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.024</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Price-Segmented Beliefs and the U.S. Housing Boom</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103195/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper shows that expected capital gains in several MSAs were higher for relatively lower-priced, rather than higher-priced, houses during the U.S. boom of the 2000s. Because buyers of lower-priced houses tend to be more sensitive to credit conditions than buyers of higher-priced houses, this paper documents patterns that are consistent with an interaction of beliefs and loose credit conditions in a time period where direct evidence on house price beliefs is scarce. Documenting this interaction is important for unifying beliefs and credit conditions as joint, instead of competing, explanations for the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfe/103195/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Jacobson, Margaret M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>14 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>real estate market; subprime lending; consumer finance</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-025</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/FEDS.2026.022</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Finance and Economics Discussion Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tariffs and Goods-Market Search Frictions</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103194/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We study tariffs in a general equilibrium dynamic model with search frictions between heterogeneous exporting producers and importing retailers. We show the model has a unique equilibrium and analytically characterize home unilateral import tariffs that maximize welfare given a passive foreign country. Search frictions add two terms to the standard optimal tariff expression: One lowers tariffs when contact rates are low; another when private export costs exceed social opportunity costs. Search frictions also introduce new incentives to subsidize imports due to market thickness effects. We calibrate our baseline to U.S. and Chinese 2016 data. We compare this baseline to a counterfactual with international search costs reduced to domestic levels but with all other parameters fixed. We find that higher baseline search costs reduce optimal U.S. unilateral and Nash tariffs and attenuate welfare responses to tariff changes.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgif/103194/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Krolikowski, Pawel; McCallum, Andrew H.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>99 p.</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>international trade; trade policy; search and matching models; general equilibrium models; welfare economics</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>1437</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/IFDP.2026.1437</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>International Finance Discussion Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Banks in the Age of Stablecoins: Lessons from Their Historical Responses to Financial Innovations</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103193</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The expansion of stablecoins has moved digital payment tokens from the periphery of financial markets to the center of policy discussions. With a global market capitalization in the mid-hundreds of billions of dollars and annual settlement volumes in the trillions as of 2025, stablecoins are increasingly viewed not merely as crypto‐market infrastructure but as potential competitors to traditional transaction accounts, particularly in payment processing, settlement functionality, and as short-term stores of value for transaction balances.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103193</guid>
<dc:creator>Hempel, Samuel J.; Perez-Sangimino, JP; Wang, Jessie Jiaxu</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-01-1</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4017</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Monitoring High Credit Growth: The Link Between Local Deposits and CRE Lending</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103192</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Outstanding mortgage debt in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector totaled $6 trillion at the end of 2024 including owner-occupied and nonowner-occupied real estate, multifamily mortgages, and loans backed by acquisition, development, and construction projects. Banks hold half of all CRE debt, with regional and small institutions (under $100 billion in assets) collectively accounting for a larger share of this lending than their larger counterparts with assets over $100 billion.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103192</guid>
<dc:creator>Lopez Cruz, Dulce; Paligorova, Teodora; Yorozu, Toshihide</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-05-01-2</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4039</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Wage and Income Growth Expectations Before, During, and After the Pandemic Period</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103191</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Inflation expectations are understood to play a crucial role in inflation dynamics and in the conduct of monetary policy. Recently, there has also been a renewed interest in the relationship between inflation expectations and wages.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgfn/103191</guid>
<dc:creator>Salter, Corinne; Villar Vallenas, Daniel</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-13</dc:date>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-04-13</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.17016/2380-7172.4038</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>FEDS Notes</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Banking Regulation with Risk of Sovereign Default</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103190/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This paper shows the declining trend in internal migration in the United States is primarily due to increasing home attachment in “fast locations,” areas with relatively high rates of population turnover. These locations were population growth destinations in the 20th century, with transient populations that settled as regional population growth converged. The qualitative patterns of the U.S. experience can be generated by a model of location choice in heterogeneous regions with overlapping generations when the population has a home bias that varies endogenously with the history of population change. Using a novel measure of home attachment, this paper estimates a structural model of migration that distinguishes moving frictions from home utility. Simulations quantify channels of the mobility decline. Rising home attachment accounts for much of the decline, predominantly in fast locations. Population aging explains most of the remainder but in a more spatially neutral way.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103190/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Coate, Patrick; Mangum, Kyle</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-11</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>50</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>declining internal migration; labor mobility; home attachment; rootedness; local ties; conditional choice probability estimation</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-25</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.25</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Expanding the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103189</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) is a quarterly survey of chief executive officers and other top business executives in the United States that collects information about their inflation expectations. This Economic Commentary presents questions newly introduced to SoFIE—some related to inflation and others examining expectations for prices, costs, employment, and wages—and provides initial analysis of the collected responses. The expanded set of survey results will be updated on a quarterly basis on the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s website at clefed.org/SoFIE.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103189</guid>
<dc:creator>Candia, Bernardo; Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Pfajfar, Damjan; Rich, Robert W.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-11</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>16</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:volume>2026</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>09</bibo:issue>
<identifiers:doi>10.26509/frbc-ec-202609</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Economic Commentary</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Will Mounting Supply Chain Strains Hamstring the AI Investment Boom?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103188</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The conflict in the Middle East has precipitated a global supply shock—the third in six years following the pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The current shock raises the specter of spillovers to the U.S. through both prices and physical shortages of goods. A critical conduit for spillovers through these channels is via Asian supply chains, especially from middle- to lower-middle income countries in southeast Asia, which are key suppliers for goods needed for the AI infrastructure build-out in the U.S. These countries are also heavily reliant on Middle East energy imports. This post examines key factors related to these Asian supply chain vulnerabilities.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103188</guid>
<dc:creator>Clark, Hunter L.; Dawson, Jeffrey B.; Turney, Shad</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-11</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Asia; supply chain</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>20260511</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/lse.20260511</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Liberty Street Economics</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Eleventh Federal Reserve District banks maintain growth, profitability heading into 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/feddse/103187</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Eleventh District banks, benefitting from steady profits, strong credit conditions and improving bank capital levels, are well positioned to compete in a changing regulatory environment.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/feddse/103187</guid>
<dc:creator>Csaky, Kristof; Garcia, JR; Ozden, Ozge</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Federal Reserve District, 11th; banks; profitability; loans; deposits</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Southwest Economy</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What drives mortgage rates and their response to monetary policy changes</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103186</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Mortgage rates are an important channel for monetary policy pass-through. However, this channel is complex.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103186</guid>
<dc:creator>McCormick, Matthew; Ramaswamy, Srini</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-07</dc:date>
<dc:subject>mortgage; rates; monetary policy; spreads; Treasury yields</dc:subject>
<ebucore:publicationChannel>Dallas Fed Economics</ebucore:publicationChannel>
</item>
<item>
<title>Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103184</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/d00001/103184</guid>
<dc:creator>Mau, Ron; Smith, Tucker</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-05</dc:date>
<dc:subject>tariffs; inflation; PCE; personal consumption</dc:subject>
<ebucore:publicationChannel>Dallas Fed Economics</ebucore:publicationChannel>
</item>
<item>
<title>Statement from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on FOMC dissent</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/feddsp/103183</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Statement issued following the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/feddsp/103183</guid>
<dc:creator>Logan, Lorie</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; dissent</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Speeches and Essays</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Stress and Strain from NBFIs to Banks</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103181</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Do the recent stresses in the NBFI space—notably the bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands, and the decision of Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II) to end its redemption program and return capital through a wind-down of the fund—create distress for banks? The general sentiment is that the recent stresses are unlikely to amount to systemic concerns, although it does not mean there might not be “some stress and strain” for banks and that policymakers are “watching carefully” for exposure across banks. In a series of previous posts, we showed that shocks to nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) directly impact banks that have exposures to NBFIs. In this post, we show that bank stocks have been directly impacted by NBFIs yet again. In short, NBFI troubles do result in “stress and strain” for banks.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103181</guid>
<dc:creator>Acharya, Viral V.; Cetorelli, Nicola; Tuckman, Bruce</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<dc:subject>NBFIs; banks; private credit</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>20260508</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/lse.20260508</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Liberty Street Economics</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Perspectives on Tokenization and Implications for the Financial System: A speech at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Conference on Digital Assets, Dakar, Senegal., May 8, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103180</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103180</guid>
<dc:creator>Cook, Lisa D.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-08</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>17</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Opening Remarks at The 2026 Federal Reserve Financial and Monetary History Conference</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsp/103179</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Opening Remarks at The 2026 Federal Reserve Financial and Monetary History Conference.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsp/103179</guid>
<dc:creator>Athreya, Kartik B.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>financial and monetary history; economic history; conference</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>There Is No Try</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsp/103178</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Remarks at the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium, New York City.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsp/103178</guid>
<dc:creator>Williams, John C.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<dc:subject>labor market; inflation; Middle East conflict; tariffs; economy; monetary policy</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Bayesian Persuasion and Cryptography</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsr/103177</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Bayesian Persuasion assumes that a sender can commit ex ante to an information structure and then release the realized signal ex post. This paper asks when that commitment technology can itself be implemented. After observing the state, a sender who also observes the realized signal can suppress unfavorable draws even if every disclosed signal is verifiably correct. We define Receiver-Private Certified Bayesian Persuasion, a benchmark in which the receiver obtains the signal and a certificate of correct generation while the sender does not learn the realized branch of the experiment. The main theorem shows that this benchmark is equivalent in cryptographic power to secure two-party computation. Thus cryptography is not merely an implementation device for persuasion; when the sender must be prevented from changing the signal sent to the receiver, hiding the signal from the sender is necessary. In stress-test applications, the primitive removes ex post discretion over which realized disclosure reaches depositors.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednsr/103177</guid>
<dc:creator>Azar, Pablo D.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>22</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Bayesian persuasion; stress testing; central bank communications</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>1194</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/sr.1194</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Staff Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Same Shock, Different Roads? A K‑Shaped Pattern at the Pump</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103173</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In March 2026, energy prices surged to a four-year high, driven by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we use the new consumer spending module of the Economic Heterogeneity Indicators to analyze recent changes in nominal and real gas consumption across different income groups. We find that households had very different experiences with gasoline spending: in March, high-income households increased nominal spending the most and kept real consumption essentially unchanged, while low-income households decreased real consumption of gasoline but still saw sharply increased nominal spending because of the rise in gas prices. Therefore, with the sharp increases in gasoline prices in March, a K-shaped pattern in gasoline consumption emerged—showing faster consumption growth for high-income households relative to low-income households. These gasoline consumption patterns qualitatively match those following the increase in energy prices at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in spring 2022, even though the gap in consumption trends during the current episode is quantitatively larger.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103173</guid>
<dc:creator>Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pham, Thu; Pierce, Beckett; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>heterogeneity; K-shaped economy; gasoline; Middle East war (2026)</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>20260506</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/lse.20260506</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Liberty Street Economics</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103171</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Over the past year, U.S. trade policy with China has undergone enormous changes, but with surprisingly little effect on overall trade balances. In fact, the U.S.’s twelve-month trade deficit, while highly volatile due to import front-running early in the year, ended 2025 at $1.2 trillion, almost unchanged from 2024. At the same time, China’s trade surplus with the world actually increased from $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion. However, when looking at changes between individual countries, one sees large shifts in bilateral balances. In this post, we will focus on changing trade flows between the U.S., China, and southeast Asia.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103171</guid>
<dc:creator>Clark, Hunter L.; Simitian, Greg</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<dc:subject>China; trade; tariffs</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>20260504</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/lse.20260504</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Liberty Street Economics</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Explaining the K‑Shaped Economy: What’s Behind the Divide?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103169</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In our companion post, we used a new module of our Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) to shed light on how recent retail spending growth has been driven by high-income households. This fact is consistent with the popular press’s idea of a “K-shaped economy” in which higher-income households experience faster growth in spending than lower-income households. In this post, we dive deeper into the reasons behind this divergence by analyzing for which goods this trend holds true and ask whether it can be explained by changes in wages, inflation, or wealth. We find that, since 2023, wealth has increased the most for high-income households, while inflation has risen the most for low-income households, with both factors helping explain the fact that real retail spending rose the most for high-income households. In contrast, earnings display a more mixed pattern, though earnings of the highest earners have grown more rapidly than earnings of the lowest earners.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103169</guid>
<dc:creator>Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pham, Thu; Pierce, Beckett; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>K-shaped economy; Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs); inequality; heterogeneity; Numerator</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>20260501b</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/lse.20260501b</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Liberty Street Economics</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tracking the K‑Shaped Economy: Who’s Driving Spending?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103158</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Aggregate real consumer spending has risen solidly since 2023. However, it is less clear how widely shared this improvement has been across all segments of society. This is important because systematic heterogeneity may mask the dependence of aggregate growth on a relatively small group of households and thus conceal macroeconomic risks. In this post, we use consumer spending data recently added to the Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) and find that retail spending growth has been driven by high-income households—those earning more than $125,000 per year. In the popular press, the phenomenon of higher-income households growing at a faster rate than lower-income households has been referred to as the K-shaped economy. We find that consumption has exhibited a K-shaped economy since 2023, although not in the pre-COVID period or during the post-COVID recovery.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fednls/103158</guid>
<dc:creator>Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pham, Thu; Pierce, Beckett; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>K-shaped economy; spending; Numerator; heterogeneity; Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs); inequality</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>20260501a</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.59576/lse.20260501a</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Liberty Street Economics</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Nebraska Health Care Under Pressure: Increasing Costs, Consolidation, and Growing Demand</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkne/103157</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Health care costs have risen substantially since the turn of the century as an aging population’s demand for medical care increases.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkne/103157</guid>
<dc:creator>McCoy, John</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>health care; Medical care, Cost of; consolidation; aging demographics; rural hospitals</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Nebraska Economist</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Flight to Safety: Evaluating Stablecoin’s Role as a Safe-Haven Asset in DeFi Markets</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103156/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This study examines the impact of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) on systemic liquidity across the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets, utilizing an event study approach that integrates on-chain wallet data, pricing, and financial metrics. By analyzing cryptocurrency market responses to key protocol and market-moving events, augmented by nonlinear volatility models, we identify distinct, chain-specific flight-to-safety behaviors. Our results show that USDT acts as a primary liquidity lifeline for Ethereum holders during stress, particularly among retail investors, whereas its role for Bitcoin holders is more muted and stabilizing. Notably, we find stronger flight-to-safety evidence in Wrapped Bitcoin (Ethereum-based) than in native Bitcoin, highlighting that USDT’s function is network dependent. These findings imply that effective regulatory frameworks must be differentiated, accounting for chain-specific liquidity, investor composition, and risk dynamics, as a uniform approach would likely be systematically miscalibrated.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103156/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Chernoff, Alan; Jagtiani, Julapa; Yoshida, Nathaniel</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-07</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>37</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Cryptocurrency; Stablecoins; Bitcoin; Ethereum; Tether; Flight to safety; BTC; ETH; USDT</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-24</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.24</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Higher Oil Prices Will Likely Increase Severance Tax Revenues in Rocky Mountain States</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrm/103155</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Iran conflict that began in February triggered a historically large energy market disruption, leading to a substantial increase in oil prices. Although higher oil prices may present challenges for households and businesses, Rocky Mountain states’ budgets—especially Wyoming and New Mexico—stand to gain from additional severance tax revenue related to elevated oil prices.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkrm/103155</guid>
<dc:creator>Rodziewicz, David</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Energy-price shocks; supply and demand shocks; oil prices; oil price shocks; oil supply shocks</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Rocky Mountain Economist</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Community Development Financial Institutions as a Means to Overcome Market Failures</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103154</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Neighborhood and information externalities can lead to market failures, leaving communities underinvested and underprovided with financial services.
Community development financial institutions (CDFIs) can serve as a means of implementing government subsidies aimed at overcoming these market failures.
To spur positive externalities, however, CDFI investments must clear a critical mass threshold, which they do not appear to have been able to achieve to date.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedreb/103154</guid>
<dc:creator>Carpenter, Surekha; Grochulski, Borys</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-06</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Community Development Finance</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>26</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>14</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>Richmond Fed Economic Brief</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Coordinated Approach to Consumer Fraud Protection: A speech at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium, Washington, D.C., May 5, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103153</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103153</guid>
<dc:creator>Bowman, Michelle W.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-05</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>8</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103152/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We assess the inflationary effects of fiscal transfers by leveraging advances in the identification of fiscal policy shocks within the recently proposed rotation-invariant time-varying structural vector autoregression. Our analysis suggests that fiscal transfer shocks account for a sizable share of the early post-pandemic increase in the price level through mid-2021. Thereafter, the rise in the price level is dominated by adverse supply shocks (especially supply-chain disruptions), while demand shocks mainly matter later for the lift-off in short-term interest rates. In addition, we find that fiscal transfers were essential for preventing a decline in real output per capita similar to the one experienced during the Great Depression.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedpwp/103152/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Shin, Minchul</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-05</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>55</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>fiscal policy; structural vector autoregressions; identification</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>26-23</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.21799/frbp.wp.2026.23</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Model for Rural Workforce Development that Works</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103141</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103141</guid>
<dc:creator>Molinaro, John</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>251-264</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Fostering Rural Prosperity through the Stewardship Economy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103138</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103138</guid>
<dc:creator>Riley, Rob; Christoffersen, Nils D.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>205-222</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Bringing Broadband to Rural America: The Role for Philanthropy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103139</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103139</guid>
<dc:creator>Hegle, Jeremy</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>223-236</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Artificial Intelligence in the Financial System: A speech at the Financial Stability Oversight Council Artificial Intelligence Series Roundtable on Cybersecurity and Risk Management, Washington, D.C., May 1, 2026</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103137</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedgsq/103137</guid>
<dc:creator>Bowman, Michelle W.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>7</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What Businesses Are Saying: The Impact of the Conflict Has Been Limited ... For Now</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103136</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Overall Momentum: Did the Conflict Cause Businesses or Consumers to Pull Back?
Firms demonstrated patience amid uncertainty. Business leaders shared that increased policy uncertainty over the last year had taught them to calmly wait and see. This meant paused investments for some, as they waited to see how the conflict would impact supply chains, input costs and demand.

Consumers continued to show resilience. Firms flagged a few cases of stress among middle-income consumers. Beyond that, however, firms were surprised at the lack of demand response to the conflict in the Middle East. Consumers kept spending even as they faced sharp price increases at the gas pump. These reports came from firms across sectors: retail, travel, manufacturing and banking. Some firms posited that larger tax refunds may have cushioned extra expenses. Big-ticket items like washers and dryers, which often reflect consumer confidence, saw negative impact. There were also a few reports of homebuying deals that fell through.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00001/103136</guid>
<dc:creator>Bauer, Andrew; Haltom, Renee Courtois; Martin, Matthew</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>business Cycles; Employment and labor markets; Production and Investment</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Regional Matters</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Can Creating Legal Pathways Reduce Unauthorized Immigration? Evidence from the CHNV Parole Program</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103133/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In an attempt to reduce unauthorized entries into the United States, the Biden administration created humanitarian parole programs for migrants from several countries experiencing crises. Migrants with a U.S. sponsor could apply from abroad and, if approved, were allowed to enter the country and remain for up to two years. Under the CHNV program, over 530,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela were paroled into the U.S. between late 2022 and mid-2024. Synthetic difference-in-differences models indicate a sustained drop in unauthorized attempted crossings between ports of entry for Cuba and Nicaragua, a short-lived drop for Venezuela and no clear pattern for Haiti after the parole processes began. The difference may be due to some migrants from Haiti and Venezuela—but not Cuba and Nicaragua—being eligible for another U.S. humanitarian protection program, giving them more motivation to attempt entry. Meanwhile, the number of inadmissible migrants who presented themselves at ports of entry along the border did not fall for any of the countries included in the CHNV parole program. Overall, the program appears to have reduced attempts to enter the United States by Nicaraguans, had no impact among Cubans and Venezuelans and increased the number of Haitian migrants.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/feddwp/103133/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Orrenius, Pia M.; Zavodny, Madeline</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>57</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>humanitarian parole; Illegal immigration; unauthorized immigration; CHNV program</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2612</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.24149/wp2612</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Comparing the FOMC’s Estimate of R-Star with Alternative Estimates</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103131</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The neutral real interest rate—also called r-star—is the theoretical rate prevailing when maximum employment and 2% inflation are reached. How is this 'unobservable' rate estimated?]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103131</guid>
<dc:creator>Kliesen, Kevin L.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<dc:subject>neutral real interest rate; r-star</dc:subject>
<ebucore:publicationChannel>On the Economy</ebucore:publicationChannel>
</item>
<item>
<title>Collaborative Rural Development and Regional Economic Connectivity</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103130</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103130</guid>
<dc:creator>Dabson, Brian; McFarland, Christiana K.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>193-202</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Rural Opportunities: Changing the Narrative and Shifting Ownership of Land</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103125</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103125</guid>
<dc:creator>Marqués, Livia; Horne, Savonala</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>119-132</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Native America x Rural America: Tribal Nations as Key Players in Regional Rural Economies</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103124</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103124</guid>
<dc:creator>Timeche, Joan; Jorgensen, Miriam</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>107-118</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>A Demographic Lifeline to Rural America: Latino Population Growth in New Destinations, 1990-2019</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103121</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103121</guid>
<dc:creator>Lichter, Daniel T.; Johnson, Kenneth M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>67-80</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Marginalization of Rural Communities in the U.S.</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103120</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103120</guid>
<dc:creator>Duncan, Cynthia M.; Ulrich-Schad, Jessica D.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>47-66</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Elusive Promise  of U.S. Rural Policy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103119</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103119</guid>
<dc:creator>Freshwater, David</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>29-46</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Megatrends and Implications for Rural Development Policy</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103118</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103118</guid>
<dc:creator>Garcilazo, Jose Enrique</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>15-28</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural development; rural communities; rural United States</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103117</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation expectations. Rather than asking about expectations for overall inflation, this survey asks about expected price growth at each respondent’s business. Aggregating survey responses provides an economy-wide indicator that tracks well with actual core consumer price index inflation. Survey responses collected before and during the recent oil shock imply that core inflation could remain elevated this year if the historical relationship between financial officer expectations and realized core inflation persist.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103117</guid>
<dc:creator>Fried, Stephie; Graf, Tobin; Malhotra, Simar; Singh, Sanjay R.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>6</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>inflation; consumer price index; inflation expectations</dc:subject>
<bibo:volume>2026</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>11</bibo:issue>
<bibo:series>FRBSF Economic Letter</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Covered Savings Associations: A New Type of Depository Institution</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103116</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 allowed most federally chartered savings associations to elect to operate with the powers of a national bank, expanding their ability to engage in commercial banking activities and no longer requiring them to concentrate their activities in residential mortgage lending. This Economic Commentary describes which associations have made the election, their reasons for doing so, and how the election has changed their asset mix. Both mutual and stock savings associations have made this election, and among mutuals, large institutions are especially likely to have done so. Institutions that have made this election have altered their asset mix away from residential lending and toward that of similarly sized national banks.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedcec/103116</guid>
<dc:creator>Prescott, Edward Simpson; Rosenberger, Grant</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-04</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>13</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:volume>2026</bibo:volume>
<bibo:issue>08</bibo:issue>
<identifiers:doi>10.26509/frbc-ec-202608</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Economic Commentary</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Economic Outlook, May 2012</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/101606</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[One factor holding back this recovery is the lingering sluggishness in new home construction.
Another impediment to economic growth has been the deterioration in labor market conditions. A significant factor in this weakness has been the mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the skills sought by firms seeking to hire.
Finally, the array of changes in tax and regulatory policies — both actual and anticipated — has made it difficult for businesses to evaluate the profitability of potential investments or hiring commitments.
These impediments to economic growth are important, but they aren’t the whole story. There have been some positive developments. Business investment in equipment and software increased in 2010 and 2011, exports also increased in both of those years and the inflation outlook is reasonably good.
Improvement in labor markets is forecasted for this year and is likely to continue in 2013, nudging gross domestic product growth higher. However, the impediments to growth mentioned before, as well as the uncertainty surrounding Europe’s economic challenges and the United States’ fiscal issues, are still exerting a drag on the economy and are unlikely to be effectively addressed by monetary policy.
Additional monetary easing is unlikely to have much positive effect on economic growth, but could generate a sustained surge in inflation that would be costly to reverse.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/r00034/101606</guid>
<dc:creator>Lacker, Jeffrey M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2012-05-02</dc:date>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Can Healthcare Labor Supply Keep Up with Aging-Driven Demand?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103115</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Demand for healthcare is growing rapidly as the U.S. population ages, with employment in caregiving occupations expanding especially quickly. Women and immigrants have been the primary workers filling these jobs so far. With female labor force participation now at all-time highs and immigration flows expected to remain constrained, healthcare labor supply could struggle to meet demand from an aging population going forward.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedkeb/103115</guid>
<dc:creator>Cohen, Elior</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>healthcare; employment growth; job growth; women employment; immigrant employment</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Economic Bulletin</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Measuring Inflation Shock Momentum</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103112/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We develop a non-parametric filter that identifies sustained directional runs in shocks to monthly inflation—a concept we define as “inflation shock momentum.” By assessing the shocks to over 100 disaggregated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation categories, we isolate the share of categories experiencing positive or negative inflation shock momentum in a given month. We define the “Inflation Shock Momentum” (ISM) index as the net positive momentum share of expenditure-weighted categories (positive minus negative) in a given month. We show that the ISM index helps to forecast aggregate PCE inflation at horizons of 1 to 3 years, even after controlling for a variety of other inflation predictor variables. The ISM index is particularly useful in capturing emerging disinflationary pressure and can be used to help forecast future inflation movements in real time.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103112/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Lansing, Kevin J.; Shapiro, Adam Hale</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-30</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>41</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>PCE Inflation; Non-parametric filter; Forecasting</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-10</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.24148/wp2026-10</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Paper Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Stabilization vs. Growth</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103111/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Should firms in financial distress be saved to stabilize an economy, even if less productive ones are kept alive, possibly reducing economic growth? To assess this fundamental stabilization-vs. growth trade-off, we develop a new dynamic general equilibrium model with business cycles, endogenous growth, and innovation externalities. We discipline key parameters using microeconomic data and an instrumental-variable approach that links firm productivity growth to R&D expenditure. Based on the calibrated model, we find that economies that save distressed firms with credit guarantees, debt restructuring, or loan evergreening experience lower volatility but also slower growth. Even though welfare is higher in an economy without such interventions, the various “soft credit” regimes can still arise as equilibrium outcomes when a benevolent government intervenes in credit markets under discretion.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103111/original</guid>
<dc:creator>Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Paul, Pascal; Sanchez, Juan M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-29</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>71</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>business cycles; endogenous growth; financial frictions</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-09</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.24148/wp2026-09</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Paper Series</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Do Recent Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Overstate Borrower Distress?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103107</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Headlines about record-high auto loan delinquencies paint a worrying picture of American consumers under increasing financial strain. But how much of that picture reflects a genuine increase in distress — and how much reflects how we measure it? After considering several possible explanations, we focus on deconstructing the severe delinquency rate — the number of auto loans that are 60 or more days delinquent — to better understand what is driving the increase in this rate. We find that while the stock of severe auto delinquencies is rising, the flow of new delinquencies into this stage is fairly stable. A possible explanation for the difference between these two trends may be that account management (e.g., forbearance practices) for distressed auto loans has evolved. An open question is whether further adjustments will be made to these practices if the U.S. market experiences a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103107</guid>
<dc:creator>Santucci, Larry; Zhou, Justin; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Cheney, Julia S.; Hunt, Robert M.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>5</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Investing in a Durable Economic Future</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/103110</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Speech to the Anchorage Economic Summit, Anchorage, Alaska, August 6, 2025, 12:10 p.m. AKT, by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/103110</guid>
<dc:creator>Daly, Mary C.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-08-06</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>6</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Speech</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>When a Penny Costs More Than a Penny: The Economics Behind Ending the Cent</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlpo/103109</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The article explains why the U.S. ceased penny production in November 2025, highlighting rising costs and declining cash use.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlpo/103109</guid>
<dc:creator>Wolla, Scott A.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>coinage</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Page One Economics Newsletter</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Determinants of Foreign Aid to Ukraine</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103108</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[This analysis examines a country’s foreign aid to Ukraine relative to the size of its economy for 41 nations, ranging from Iceland to China. Which country provides the most?]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103108</guid>
<dc:creator>Cole, Anna; Neely, Christopher J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Russian invasion of Ukraine; foreign aid</dc:subject>
<ebucore:publicationChannel>On the Economy</ebucore:publicationChannel>
</item>
<item>
<title>Is Household Financial Health Improving?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103106</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[In this CFI Research Brief, we use anonymized credit report data on consumer delinquency to assess the recent trajectory of households' financial health. Do recent improvements in consumer delinquency trends reflect strengthening household financial health, or are delinquency trends driven by other factors such as changes in the composition of borrowers? Using nationally representative consumer credit panel data and fixed-effects regression methods, our analysis points to a continued rise in the likelihood of delinquency, consistent with further deterioration in household financial health. This deterioration appears to be most pronounced for low- to moderate-income consumers, even as their debt burdens have declined significantly.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103106</guid>
<dc:creator>Bhutta, Neil; Doubinko, Valeria Zeballos</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>7</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>It’s You, Not Me – Survey Data on AI’s Impact on Employees</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103105</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[While the effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on the workplace has received a significant amount of attention in recent years, the nature of that effect on employees and on the job market appears to be mixed among respondents to the LIFE Survey. Generally and across most demographic groups, employed respondents are very likely to disagree that AI is directly affecting their jobs or career opportunities. At the same time, they are very likely to agree that AI is affecting the job market as a whole]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/p00001/103105</guid>
<dc:creator>Akana, Tom</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-05-01</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>4</rdau:hasExtent>
<bibo:series>Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Present and Future of Bank On Account Data: Pilot Results and Prospective Data Collection</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103104</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Nearly 27 percent of U.S. households are unbanked and underbanked, which significantly constrains their ability to save reliably, access credit, and achieve other important financial goals. While past financial education and literacy efforts have raised awareness of these issues, there is mixed evidence on the overall effectiveness of such programs, with many studies finding little to no proven impact on consumer financial behaviors. The national Bank On movement seeks to professionalize banking access efforts across the country through supporting local coalitions, increasing the availability of safe and affordable banking products that meet Bank On National Account Standards, and helping connect unbanked and underbanked people to these products. Central to these professionalization efforts is reliable and consistent data demonstrating how consumers use these products. To this end, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Cities for Financial Empowerment Fund (CFE Fund) launched a pilot study in 2017 to demonstrate the takeup and usage of Bank On accounts with four financial institutions: Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo. In addition, the pilot study tested how a centralized Bank On data collection process could operate before a national reporting platform is established for all financial institutions offering certified Bank On accounts. National Bank On account data reflects the maturation of this movement: Standardized, national data, aggregated by a federal regulator, allows stakeholders to better understand the market at the national, regional, and local levels. These data demonstrate the vibrant market for these accounts and can motivate current and future financial institution partners to offer accounts that meet the standards. It also underscores the success of local coalition efforts to connect unbanked people to accounts, and can spur the launch of new coalitions and new programmatic integration partnerships.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103104</guid>
<dc:creator>Covington, Meredith; Diner, Paige; Plat, Katie; Erwitt, Amelia; Bradley, Kelsey</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2018</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>20 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Bank On National Data Hub</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Bank On National Data Hub: Findings from 2020</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103101</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[An estimated 5.4% of U.S. households—or approximately 7.1 million—are unbanked, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC). This means these households do not have checking or savings accounts at a traditional bank or credit union. The estimated number of unbanked households in the 2019 FDIC report 
was the lowest since the survey began in 2009. The most common reasons survey respondents cited for being unbanked included the following: they did not have enough money for the minimum balance in an account; they did not trust banks; they said avoiding banks affords more privacy; bank fees were too high or unpredictable for them. An additional 22 million households are underbanked based on calculations by CFE using FDIC data. Meaning these households have a bank account but many times rely on alternative financial services such as money orders, check cashing services and payday loans rather than traditional loans and credit cards to manage their finances. The purpose of the Bank On movement is to improve the financial stability of unbanked and underbanked individuals and families by making safe, low-cost transaction accounts available and accessible to all. A way in which the movement reaches its target markets is by professionalizing, or building a formal structure, for banking access efforts for financial institutions and their customers. Paramount to the professionalization of such efforts are high-quality data showing the take-up, or engagement with, and usage of Bank On-certified accounts. The St. Louis Fed’s Bank On National Data (BOND) Hub serves as a national reporting platform for all financial institutions offering certified Bank On accounts. For this report, 17 financial institutions submitted data to the BOND Hub. The institutions were asked to submit their 2020 account data on 25 metrics related to account openings, usage and consistency, and online access. These data allow stakeholders to better understand the market locally, regionally and nationally. The BOND Hub also allows financial institutions to benchmark the performance of Bank On-certified products and use this information for regulator examinations of their community services. It helps Bank On coalition partners illustrate their progress in promoting local banking access without requiring multiple data requests. The ability to quantify the national impact of Bank On—and how consumers are opening and using safe, affordable transaction accounts—is an important asset for banking access efforts and demonstrates the market for Bank On-certified accounts.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103101</guid>
<dc:creator>Chalise, Nishesh; Briggs, Matuschka Lindo; Gutkowski, Violeta A.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2021</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>21 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>Bank On National Data Hub</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Bank On National Data Hub: Findings from 2021</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103100</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[More than 14 million Bank On-certified accounts have been opened to date across this year’s (2021) 28 reporting institutions, a 67% increase from the previous reporting year.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103100</guid>
<dc:creator>Chalise, Nishesh; Briggs, Matuschka Lindo; Gutkowski, Violeta A.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2022-12-13</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Bank On National Data Hub</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Bank On National Data Hub: Findings from 2023</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103098</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Bank On-certified accounts received $174 billion in deposits in 2023. This report examines annual data on Bank On account openings, usage and online access.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103098</guid>
<dc:creator>Locke, Lisa J.; Chalise, Nishesh</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2024-11-12</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Bank On National Data Hub</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Bank On National Data Hub: Findings from 2022</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103099</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[More than 17 million Bank On-certified accounts across 87% of U.S. ZIP codes have been opened through the end of 2022—a 24% increase from the previous year.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103099</guid>
<dc:creator>Locke, Lisa J.; Gutkowski, Violeta A.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2023-11-08</dc:date>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Bank On National Data Hub: Findings from 2024</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103097</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Bank On-certified accounts received $260 billion in deposits in 2024. This report examines annual data on Bank On account openings, usage and online access.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103097</guid>
<dc:creator>Eggleston, Mike; Locke, Lisa J.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2025-11-13</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Bank On National Data Hub</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Prior Knowledge, Module Design, and Student Dropout in Online K-12 Education</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103095/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We examine student dropout in online K-12 education coursework using administrative data for 442,000 students, 64 economics and personal finance modules, and 2.1 million module assignments between 2014 and 2025. We find that module length, prior knowledge, embedded formative assessments, and school district demographics independently predict whether students complete assigned modules. Each additional page is associated with a 0.24-percentage-point decrease in completion probability, but this relationship is 30 percent weaker for students with above-median prior knowledge. Embedded knowledge checks amplify the negative effect of module length: the page effect more than doubles in modules containing these assessments. Dropout is elevated 33 percent above expected on pages immediately before knowledge checks. Districts with higher minority enrollment exhibit lower completion even after accounting for per-pupil expenditure and staffing. Survival analysis reveals that dropout risk is highest in the first 10 percent of module progress and generally declines thereafter, suggesting that early engagement is critical. Apparent differences between personal finance and economics modules disappear within schools, indicating institutional sorting rather than subject difficulty. These findings provide actionable guidance for instructional designers developing online educational content.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103095/original</guid>
<dc:creator>García, Manu; Mendez-Carbajo, Diego</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-30</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>54 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>online education; student dropout; prior knowledge; formative assessment; K-12 education; digital divide; instructional design; learning analytics</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-008</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.20955/wp.2026.008</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Health Care Opportunity Occupations and Workforce Strategies in U.S. and Eighth District Hospitals</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103092</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Six in-demand health care occupations—like certain nursing and clinical technician roles—can offer rural workers above-median wages without a four-year degree.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103092</guid>
<dc:creator>Summers-Gabr, Nicole</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2025-11-06</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>29 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>rural workforce; health care occupations; Federal Reserve District, 8th</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Access to Credit and Financial Services: A Bridge to Financial Well-being</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103093</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Two analyses describe low- and moderate-income individuals’ access to credit and how this group broadly interacts with financial institutions and services.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00101/103093</guid>
<dc:creator>Deichmann, Liz</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2025-09-25</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>22 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>access to finance; access to credit; financial well-being; low-and moderate-income (LMI); Federal Reserve District, 8th</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Community Development Publications and Reports</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Immigrants’ Educational Attainment in the U.S. and Eighth District: An Update</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103091</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Compared with the native-born population, immigrants to the U.S. are more concentrated at the upper and lower ends of the educational attainment spectrum.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103091</guid>
<dc:creator>Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Le, Hoang</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-30</dc:date>
<dc:subject>immigrants; educational attainment; Federal Reserve District, 8th</dc:subject>
<ebucore:publicationChannel>On the Economy</ebucore:publicationChannel>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Determinants of Mortgage Denial Using Public Data</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103090/original</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[We analyze over 30 million home purchase mortgage applications from 2018-2024 using publicly available Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data to study the determinants of mortgage denial. We establish three primary findings. First, credit access is highly sensitive to monetary policy; the 2022-2023 tightening drove aggregate denial rates from 12.2% to 15.7% via the debt-to-income (DTI) channel. Second, we identify a critical nonlinearity in underwriting: While the 43% qualified mortgage (QM) threshold---below which lenders receive legal safe harbor from ability-to-repay claims---is non-binding in practice, denial rates jump by 15-17 percentage points at the 50% DTI mark, marking the functional market boundary. Third, substantial racial disparities persist; controlling for lender fixed effects and financials, Black applicants are 7.8 percentage points more likely to be denied than White applicants. Observable characteristics explain at most 41% of this gap. These results demonstrate how monetary tightening interacts with structural inequalities to disproportionately restrict credit access for vulnerable populations at the extensive margin.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103090/original</guid>
<dc:creator>García, Manu; Garriga, Carlos</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2026-04-29</dc:date>
<rdau:hasExtent>50 pages</rdau:hasExtent>
<dc:subject>mortgage lending; credit access; housing finance; homeownership; underwriting; monetary policy</dc:subject>
<swpo:hasNumber>2026-007</swpo:hasNumber>
<identifiers:doi>10.20955/wp.2026.007</identifiers:doi>
<bibo:series>Working Papers</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Here Comes the Neighborhood: Breathing New Life into the Inner City, One Mortgage at a Time</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95302</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Learn about Gateway Neighborhood Mortgage program and its strategies for increasing the purchase and renovation of homes.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95302</guid>
<dc:creator>Evans, Clayton; Burleigh, Glenn; Ferry, Jonathan; Witthaus, Michelle</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2019-12-18</dc:date>
<dc:subject>mortgages</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>CRA: An Examiner's Perspective Considerations for Branch Closings</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95303</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Branch closures can have negative impacts on a bank’s Community Reinvestment Act rating. For residents, a branch closure may result in less access to personal banking products such as checking and savings accounts.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95303</guid>
<dc:creator>Ward, Bill</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2019-12-18</dc:date>
<dc:subject>branch closures; Community Reinvestment Act (CRA)</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Shifting Dynamics in Eighth District Cities</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95304</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[From 2017 to 2018, the cities of St. Louis, Little Rock, Louisville and Memphis had better commute times and cheaper housing but higher income inequality and lower median household incomes.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95304</guid>
<dc:creator>Kent, Ana Hernández</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2019-12-19</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Federal Reserve District, 8th; commute times; housing costs; income inequality; household income</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Can Work-Based Learning Ease Talent Issues?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95307</link>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95307</guid>
<dc:creator>Evans, Sam</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2019-12-19</dc:date>
<dc:subject>work-based learning</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>CRA: An Examiner's Perspective COVID-19 and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) – Assessment Area Responsiveness</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95308</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[An examiner provides an overview of the Joint Statement on CRA Consideration for Activities in Response to COVID-19.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95308</guid>
<dc:creator>Yarwood, Douglas</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2020-05-26</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Community Reinvestment Act (CRA); COVID-19</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Eighth District Communities</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95309</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Discover the Eighth District’s take on the ways COVID-19 impacted communities and businesses throughout the region.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95309</guid>
<dc:creator>Worden, Megan</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2020-05-27</dc:date>
<dc:subject>COVID-19; Federal Reserve District, 8th</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Why are Eighth District Populations Growing More Slowly than the Rest of the U.S.?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95311</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[Our Center for Household Financial Stability evaluates the factors that led to recent population decline among the seven states that encompass the Eighth District.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95311</guid>
<dc:creator>Emmons, William R.</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2020-05-27</dc:date>
<dc:subject>Federal Reserve District, 8th; population</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
<item>
<title>Financial Fragility Following COVID-19 Income Shocks: Who is Most Vulnerable?</title>
<link>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95313</link>
<description>
<![CDATA[The COVID-19 pandemic prompts the Center for Household Financial Stability team to weigh the causes of certain families being more at-risk to economic shock than others.]]>
</description>
<guid>https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlbr/95313</guid>
<dc:creator>Ricketts, Lowell R.; Boshara, Ray</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2020-06-29</dc:date>
<dc:subject>financial fragility; COVID-19</dc:subject>
<bibo:series>Bridges</bibo:series>
</item>
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