Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publications Economic research and commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+St.+Louis Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:57:14 +0000 The Baby Bust: How Economics Can Explain Demographic Changes https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlpo/103529 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlpo/103529 Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Kaiman, Mike 2026-07-10 birth rates; productivity; opportunity cost; per capita income Page One Economics Newsletter How Are "Disconnected" Young Adults Spending Their Time? https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103528 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103528 Kassens, Alice; Rodgers, William M. 2026-07-14 young adults; unemployment; educational attainment On the Economy Guiding Monetary Policy during a Productivity Boom: Evidence from the 1990s https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103527 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103527 Wheelock, David C.; Kliesen, Kevin L. 2026-07-13 productivity; information technology; artificial intelligence On the Economy Geopolitical Distance and Targeted Trade: Evidence from Product-Level Export Controls https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103525/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103525/original Santacreu, Ana Maria; Patro, Bontu Ankit 2026-07-14 35 pages trade policy; geopolitics; export controls; technology; non-tariff barriers 2026-014 10.20955/wp.2026.014 Working Papers How Does the Fed Interpret and Pursue the Dual Mandate? https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103504 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103504 Engemann, Kristie M. 2026-07-08 dual mandate; maximum employment; price stability; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Open Vault Banking Analytics: Allowance for Credit Losses Remains Stable at U.S. Banks https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103492 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103492 Romanko, Reed 2026-07-06 aggregate allowance for credit losses (ACL) coverage ratio; loan loss reserves; loan delinquencies; charge-offs; economic uncertainty On the Economy The Tradition of Federal Reserve Independence https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103485/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103485/original Wheelock, David C.; Rose, Jonathan D. 2026-07-06 34 pages Federal Reserve; central bank independence; monetary policy 2026-013 10.20955/wp.2026.013 Working Papers The Story of U.S. Central Banking https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103481 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103481 Whipple, Jona 2026-07-01 central banking; economic history; financial history; financial panics; financial crises Open Vault Expectations on Wealth Returns: Implications for Labor Supply During the Retirement Boom https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/102353/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/102353/original Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt 2025-11-17 6 pages labor supply; retirement; heterogeneous returns; incomplete markets 2025-031 10.20955/wp.2025.031 Working Papers How Shifts in Labor Supply and Demand Shape Outcomes for Young Workers https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103464 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103464 Kassens, Alice; Rodgers, William M. 2026-06-30 labor market conditions; young adult workers; recent college graduates; job openings; artificial intelligence (AI) On the Economy Import Tariffs and Illegal Immigration: A Strategic Analysis https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlrv/103433 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlrv/103433 Pinto, Santiago; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu 2026-06-24 1-12 tariffs; imports; illegal immigration; international trade 108 7 10.20955/r.2026.07 Review Banking Analytics: U.S. Banks Increase Treasury Securities Holdings in Q1 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103432 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103432 Loesch, Kathryn 2026-06-25 Treasury securities; bank assets On the Economy Living in Infamy: Bad Reputations in Emerging Markets https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103431/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103431/original Stangebye, Zachary; Wright, Mark L. J. 2026-06-15 58 pages sovereign debt; sovereign default; market access 2026-012 10.20955/wp.2026.012 Working Papers Explaining the Federal Reserve’s Master Accounts https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103425 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103425 Brennan, Vincent 2026-06-24 Federal Reserve Financial Services; Federal Reserve master accounts Open Vault The Mortgage Borrower Who Can’t Fail and the One Who Can’t Win https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103424 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103424 García, Manu; Garriga, Carlos 2026-06-23 homebuyers; mortgage denials; access to credit On the Economy It’s (Still) the Business Cycle: Young Adult Workers in a “Low-Hire, Low-Fire” Labor Market https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103408 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103408 Kassens, Alice; Rodgers, William M. 2026-06-22 young adult workers; recent college graduates; labor market weakness; employment-to-population ratio; job vacancies; unemployment On the Economy Challenges and Strategies for Expanding Apprenticeships in the St. Louis Region https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103409 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103409 Chalise, Nishesh; Panth, Neelu 2026-06-17 apprenticeships; Federal Reserve District, 8th; workforce development Open Vault Banking Analytics: Lower Asset Yields Squeeze Bank Interest Margins in Q1 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103407 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103407 Baer, Julianne 2026-06-18 banking metrics; net interest margins On the Economy The Local-Spillover Decomposition of an Aggregate Causal Effect https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlrv/103392 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlrv/103392 McCrory, Peter B.; Dupor, Bill; Ebsim, Mahdi; Li, Jingchao; Conley, Timothy G. 2026-06-05 defense spending; local-spillover decomposition; panel data 10.20955/r.2026.06 Review Declining Fertility Rates across the World https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103391 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103391 Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. 2026-06-09 fertility; birth rates; global population; high-income countries; low-income countries On the Economy Real-Life Examples of Opportunity Cost https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103362 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00100/103362 Fagan, Doreen 2026-06-03 opportunity cost; decisionmaking On the Economy What 30 Million Applications Reveal about Mortgage Denial Thresholds https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103361 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103361 Garriga, Carlos; García, Manu 2026-06-04 mortgage denials; debt-to-income ratio On the Economy Tracking the Shift from Mortgage Refinancings to HELOCs https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103356 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103356 Mori, Masataka; Sanchez, Juan M. 2026-06-02 home equity lines of credit (HELOCs); mortgage finance; refinancing On the Economy Measuring AI Adoption among Firms: How You Ask Matters https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103354 https://fedinprint.org/item/l00001/103354 Blandin, Adam; Deming, David; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Jessen, Jonas; Bick, Alexander 2026-06-01 worker surveys; artificial intelligence (AI); technology adoption; firm-level surveys On the Economy Algorithms as Shadow Regulation: Secondary Market Access Overrides Home Buyer Credit Risk https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103329/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/103329/original García, Manu; Garriga, Carlos 2026-05-29 60 pages mortgage lending; debt-to-income ratio; automated underwriting; algorithmic decision-making; regression discontinuity 2026-011 10.20955/wp.2026.011 Working Papers