Economic research and commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+San+Francisco Mon, 11 May 2026 11:39:01 +0000 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103117 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103117 Singh, Sanjay R.; Fried, Stephie; Graf, Tobin; Malhotra, Simar 2026-05-04 6 inflation; consumer price index; inflation expectations 2026 11 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103112/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103112/original Shapiro, Adam Hale; Lansing, Kevin J. 2026-04-30 41 PCE Inflation; Non-parametric filter; Forecasting 2026-10 10.24148/wp2026-10 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103111/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103111/original Sanchez, Juan M.; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Paul, Pascal 2026-04-29 71 business cycles; endogenous growth; financial frictions 2026-09 10.24148/wp2026-09 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/103110 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/103110 Daly, Mary C. 2026-08-06 6 Speech https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/103063 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/103063 Daly, Mary C. 2026-04-08 8 Federal Reserve; regional banks Speech https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103061/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103061/original Jørgensen, Peter Lihn; Lansing, Kevin J. 2026-04-08 43 anchored inflation expectations; Philips curve; Endogenous indexation; Great Recession; Pandemic era; History dependence. 2026-08 10.24148/wp2026-08 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103060/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103060/original Wieland, Johannes F.; Leahy, John V.; Hausman, Joshua; Mondragon, John 2026-04-06 37 2026-07 10.24148/wp2026-07 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103059/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103059/original Kozliakov, Gleb; Singh, Sanjay R.; Marin, Emile A. 2026-03-31 43 uninsurable idiosyncratic risk; heterogeneous agents; wealth dynamics; equity premium 2026-06 10.24148/wp2026-06 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103058 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103058 Daly, Mary C. 2026-04-13 5 2026 10 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103057 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103057 Leduc, Sylvain; Oliveira, Luiz E. 2026-04-06 6 monetary policy; Monetary policy and inflation 2026 09 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102976 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102976 Bauer, Michael D.; Wasserburger, Wesley 2026-03-31 6 monetary policy; communications; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 2026 08 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102966 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102966 Nechio, Fernanda; Halbersleben, Naomi; Jordà, Òscar 2026-03-30 6 tariffs; inflation 2026 07 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102910/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102910/original Nechio, Fernanda; Schwartzman, Felipe; Jordà, Òscar; Phan, Toan 2026-02-26 53 energy efficiency; capital vintages; monetary policy; interest rates; local projections; small open economy 2026-05 10.24148/wp2026-05 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/102798 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfsp/102798 Daly, Mary C. 2026-02-17 12 artificial intelligence (AI) Speech https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102797 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102797 Daly, Mary C. 2026-02-23 8 artificial intelligence (AI) 2026 06 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102450 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102450 Zhou, Xiaoqing; Wilson, Daniel J. 2026-02-17 5 immigration; labor markets; unauthorized immigration 2026 05 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102418 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102418 Dufresne, Lora; Spiegel, Mark M. 2026-02-09 5 PPPLF; small businesses; small business lending (SBL) 2026 04 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102407/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102407/original Boyle, Shane; Alam, M.Jahangir; Sekhposyan, Tatevik; Li, Huiyu 2026-02-05 24 large language models; generative AI; inflation forecasting 2026-04 10.24148/wp2026-04 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102406/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102406/original Steenkamp, Daan; Christensen, Jens H. E. 2026-02-05 31 term structure modeling; inflation risk; liquidity risk; financial market frictions; emerging bond markets 2026-03 10.24148/wp2026-03 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102384/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102384/original Sauvagnat, Julien; Li, Huiyu; Schmitz, Tom 2026-02-02 29 wage premium 2026-02 10.24148/wp2026-02 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102383 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102383 Najjar, Rami; Louie, Schuyler; Mondragon, John; Wieland, Johannes F. 2026-02-02 5 housing affordability; housing demand; income growth; population growth 2026 03 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102320 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102320 New-Schmidt, Addie; Chen, Ingrid; Bengali, Leila; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas 2026-01-12 6 2026 02 FRBSF Economic Letter https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102313/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102313/original Uniat, Lindsey 2026-01-09 60 2026-01 10.24148/wp2026-01 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102306/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/102306/original Garimella, Rohit; Jordà, Òscar; Singh, Sanjay R. 2025-12-31 30 labor market indicator; recession; receiver operating characteristic curve 2025-31 10.24148/wp2025-31 Working Paper Series https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102299 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/102299 Barnichon, Régis; Singh, Aayush 2026-01-05 5 tariffs; uncertainty; monetary policy 2026 01 FRBSF Economic Letter