Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco publications Economic research and commentary from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco https://fedinprint.org/search?facets[]=provider_literal_array:Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+San+Francisco Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:52:09 +0000 Consumer Vibe Check: Gas Prices and Inflation Expectations https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103717 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103717 Sung, Yeji; Kim, Taerin 2026-08-31 5 gas prices; inflation expectations; consumer vibes 5 2026-24 FRBSF Economic Letter Can Fiscal, AI, or Monetary News Explain the Rise in r∗? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103705/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103705/original Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Christensen, Jens H. E. 2026-08-27 32 r star; fiscal policy; artificial intelligence; monetary policy 2026-19 10.24148/wp2026-19 Working Paper Series Quality, Inequality and Understanding Housing Markets https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103704/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103704/original Najjar, Rami; Mondragon, John; Louie, Schuyler; Wieland, Johannes F. 2026-08-27 16 quality; inequality; housing markets 2026-18 10.24148/wp2026-18 Working Paper Series A Dual Mandate Can Support Price Stability https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103696/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103696/original Bundick, Brent; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas 2026-08-26 36 inflation; monetary policy; dual mandate 2026-17 10.24148/wp2026-17 Working Paper Series What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103677 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103677 Kudlyak, Marianna; Avaradi, Greeshma; Hornstein, Andreas; Kim, Taerin 2026-08-24 6 unemployment rates; demographic groups 2026 23 FRBSF Economic Letter Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103655 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103655 Curdia, Vasco 2026-08-17 5 natural rate of interest; interest rates; real interest rates 2026 22 FRBSF Economic Letter Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103632 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103632 Mertens, Thomas M.; Wasserburger, Wesley 2026-08-10 6 oil prices; financial markets 2026 21 FRBSF Economic Letter Reaching for Duration https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103631/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103631/original Mertens, Thomas M.; Schneider, Andrés; Paul, Pascal 2026-08-10 105 maturity mismatch; term premium; quantitative easing; financial stability; bank runs; deposit franchise 2026-16 10.24148/wp2026-16 Working Paper Series Will AI Intensify or Weaken Market Competition? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103630/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103630/original Liu, Zheng; Firooz, Hamid; Leduc, Sylvain 2026-08-10 47 artificial intelligence; data; heterogeneous firms; industry concentration; markup; productivity; welfare 2026-15 10.24148/wp2026-15 Working Paper Series Job-Finding Anomalies of the Current Expansion https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103594 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103594 Kudlyak, Marianna; Mikhlin, Riva; Chen, Ingrid 2026-08-03 6 job finding; unemployment rate; labor market health 2026 20 FRBSF Economic Letter AI Adoption Among Small Businesses: Qualitative Insights from the Small Business Credit Survey https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfcb/103580 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfcb/103580 Simms, Sarah; Holmes, Natalie; Sanchez-Moyano, Rocio 2026-07-15 19 artificial intelligence; small business credit; AI adoption 2026 01 10.24148/cdrb2026-01 Community Development Research Brief Prices and Monetary Policy: The Role of Financial Constraints https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103550/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103550/original Czarnota, Alexander; Klein, Mathias; Bauer, Michael D. 2026-07-17 58 prices; monetary policy; financial constraints; firm heterogeneity 2026-13 10.24148/wp2026-13 Working Paper Series Recency Effects in Perceived Uncertainty https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103549/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103549/original Sung, Yeji; Acosta, Miguel 2026-07-10 50 2026-12 10.24148/wp2026-12 Working Paper Series Firms’ Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic-Era Surge https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103523 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103523 Reinelt, Timo; Malhotra, Simar; Hajdini, Ina 2026-07-13 6 inflation expectations; inflation; pandemic; firms 2026 19 FRBSF Economic Letter Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103483 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103483 Lansing, Kevin J.; Shapiro, Adam Hale 2026-07-06 6 inflation; inflationary trends 2026 18 FRBSF Economic Letter Calibrating Monetary Policy https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103472 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103472 Singh, Aayush; Barnichon, Régis 2026-06-29 5 monetary policy; tariffs 2026 17 FRBSF Economic Letter Central Bank Bond Purchases and the Price of Safety https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103412 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103412 Zhang, Xin; Christensen, Jens H. E.; Mirkov, Nikola 2026-06-22 5 central banking; government bonds 2026 16 FRBSF Economic Letter How Labor Force Participation Has Diverged Across Genders https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103347 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103347 Kim, Taerin; Avaradi, Greeshma; Kudlyak, Marianna; Hornstein, Andreas 2026-06-01 6 Labor Force Participation; gender; women; Women; employment 2026 15 FRBSF Economic Letter Trends in Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, 1976-2024 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103327/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103327/original Hornstein, Andreas; Kudlyak, Marianna 2026-05-08 36 labor force participation rate; unemployment rates; Demographic Composition; Age Effects; cohort effects 2026-11 10.24148/wp2026-11 Working Paper Series Have We Entered an Era of High Productivity Growth? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103308 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103308 Foerster, Andrew; Abdelrahman, Hamza 2026-05-26 5 productivity; productivity growth; labor productivity; artificial intelligence 2026 14 FRBSF Economic Letter Is Optimism for Artificial Intelligence Boosting Investment? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103265 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103265 Li, Huiyu; Kalyani, Aakash 2026-05-18 6 artificial intelligence; investment; optimism 2026 13 FRBSF Economic Letter AI-Powered Algorithmic Pricing and Monetary Policy https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103235 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103235 Avaradi, Greeshma; Zhao, Steven; Liu, Zheng 2026-05-11 5 artificial intelligence; algorithmic pricing; monetary policy 2026 12 FRBSF Economic Letter What Do Financial Officers Predict for Price Growth? https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103117 https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfel/103117 Fried, Stephie; Singh, Sanjay R.; Malhotra, Simar; Graf, Tobin 2026-05-04 6 inflation; consumer price index; inflation expectations 2026 11 FRBSF Economic Letter Measuring Inflation Shock Momentum https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103112/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103112/original Shapiro, Adam Hale; Lansing, Kevin J. 2026-04-30 41 PCE Inflation; Non-parametric filter; Forecasting 2026-10 10.24148/wp2026-10 Working Paper Series Stabilization vs. Growth https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103111/original https://fedinprint.org/item/fedfwp/103111/original Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Paul, Pascal; Sánchez, Juan M. 2026-04-29 71 business cycles; endogenous growth; financial frictions 2026-09 10.24148/wp2026-09 Working Paper Series